Economic Crisis More Dangerous Than Terrorism
Niall Ferguson | Foreign Policy | February 2009
In his State
of The Union Address
in January 2002, George W. Bush warned us of the infamous "Axis of
Evil." Iran, North Korea and Iraq were accused of harboring
terrorists, building weapons of mass destruction and threatening world peace.
Seven years later, President Obama is confronted with another similarly grave
"Axis." This time, however, it is not linked to terrorism or weapons
of mass destruction; rather it is an "Axis of Upheaval" - an
explosive mix of economic misery and political instability. Dennis Blair,
Obama's new Director of National Intelligence, recently warned in his Annual Threat
Assessment that the economic crisis could unhinge many governments in Asia,
Africa and Latin America.
In the course of the last centuries
there were three factors primarily responsible for the outbreak of political
chaos and deadly violence: ethnic disintegration, economic volatility and
empires in decline. The Middle East is a particularly good example of such
phenomena: for decades the region has been rife with unwavering ethnic
tensions, and it appears that the US has now decided to withdraw
their quasi-imperialistic presence from the area, not least due to the
hardships and frustration experienced in Afghanistan
and Iraq.
Furthermore, the third factor is also present: stemming form the crisis in the US
real estate market, the financial crisis has swept over the international
banking and credit system causing global market contraction and perhaps the
most severe economic crisis since 1929.
Economic crises of this degree
almost always have geopolitical consequences. The first symptoms of the
impending turbulence are already visible. The economic conditions in the Gaza Strip were not
especially good. Lately, but also since the beginning of the crisis and since
the withdrawal of the Israeli troops, these conditions have been so abysmal
that moderate voices in Palestinian government are not even heard. In other
Arab states like Egypt and Syria, radical
currents will be on the rise as long as pictures of starved Palestinian children
amidst war ravaged ruins circulate throughout the world media. However, one of
the largest geo-political risks is the possible collapse of the unstable
governments in Kabul and Islamabad. The economic crisis plays a key
role in these two countries as well. Pakistan's small but influential
middle class was hit hard by the domestic slump in the stock market. At the
same time, the already vast number of unemployed young men is steadily
increasing. Also in Thailand,
Indonesia and Turkey
it appears that the economic crisis is drastically sharpening internal
political tensions. The serious dilemma of the situation: the resources
available to fight hunger and promote economic development will clearly be
scarce in the near future. Is a new era of political insatiability on the
horizon?
This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community editorial team from "The Axis of Upheaval," published here by Foreign Policy, March/April 2009.
Wed, Mar 18th 2009, 06:09
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The central theme to Falk’s concern in envisaging the startling scenarios for our future is the very nature of the contemporary world system, and assumptions that undergird it. His concerns mirror the concerns of other scholars who look at terrorism in a critical vein – as emotional or/and rational reactions to the nature of the present world order and the ideas that propel it through. While Falk mentions terrorists, along with technocrats, traditionalists, and ecological fanatics that may feed off one another to claim our future, the interlinkages between the nature of the present world order and Falk’s probable inheritors of our world involve deep issues in politics, political theory, and the ubiquity of the problem of violence in human life. It is an interesting phenomenon that contemporary international terrorism, rise of religious fanaticisms, and criticisms of modernity qua the ‘West’ appear as synchronous activities in historical time. " - Kraftnetz, The Trojan Horse: Inside Terror, part - I: The Labyrinths (Illinois:wordclay, 2008).
Do we have something here? The interesting phenomenon about "the rise of contemporary international terrorism, rise of religious fanaticisms, and criticisms of modernity qua the the "West" appear as synchronous activities in historical time" perhaps make things much more interestingly clear, including the 'celebrated' truth-experiments underway by the Indian state and ostensibly hinged on to its political class and their whims and fancies. The various capacities at arriving at the truth of and about any given incident - as well as and along with the particular knowledges of it - leave alone the philosophical question of the "truth" - a much celebrated topic that continues to interest philosophers and scientists alike - is of course considered redundant. Given such actors of particular "truth-experiments" - (http:tippity-tim.livejournal.com provides some interesting queries and issues over the subject) - yes, certain issues continue to remain the same as the interesting observation about an interesting phenomenon here.
The propensity by many regional actors within a security complex exhibiting such a nature - and their confluence via a globalized world - the information highways and trade as the precursors of cultural exchanges/transmissions/diffusions and more importantly, the collision of differing cognitive worlds - in the process that are throwing up ruptures as 'events' - when seen in a layered bi-section - do provide enough inputs about the factors that are there, including the various forces that are thrown into play here. Difficult to solve? Not really and once again, yes, maybe. But then it would take determination, good taste, and intellect and the possible instructions to the local diplomatic staff of many a high commissions/embassies/consulates, etc. over not confusing everyone with being afflicted or impressed with the ability to transmutate from one shape to another. Or maybe, one should look afresh at the this capacity and attempt at determining the beginning of the process that has led to this situation. Ni How Ma' ? as the Chinese greeting goes!