Iranian Plot Makes Sense... in Iran
Mehdi Khalaji, Washington Inst. for Near East Policy | November 4, 2011
The Iranian assassination plot makes sense when viewed through the lens of domestic political struggles. ++ Competing factions in the Islamic Republic have always put their interests ahead of national interests and been willing to ally with foreign powers if it suited them. ++ The assassination plot was likely intentionally designed to fail by elements that want to forestall any openings to the West. ++ If such rogue elements exist, it raises troubling questions about the security and future of Iran’s nuclear program.
Thu, Dec 1st 2011, 10:19
Oliver Jones
Whilst it is true that the assassination plot may certainly have intended to undermine Ahmadinejad's foreign policy, it is important to highlight that this does not necessarily mean that Iran is more likely to use nuclear weapons.
It must be remembered that Iran has recently itself been on the receiving end of not insignificant covert action campaigns. Stuxnet and the spate of assassinations of scientists (though by no means clearly attributable to foreign powers in all cases) are the most prominent examples. Such measures could be prompting certain elements within Iran to launch what they perceive to be reprisals.
If this is true, then clearly, even those radical anti-American elements who wish to scupper any chance at diplomatic rapprochement are not so irrational as to use nuclear weapons upon their acquisition of them. Though there may be a willingness to sacrifice what we perceive to be Iranian national interests (better relations with the west leading to economic and political benefits) , there is a logic driving these elements, and there is certainly no wish to see Iran destroyed or suffer as a result of a nuclear confrontation. Plotting assassination, terrorist violence, and even orchestrating embassy invasions by angry mobs are very different animals to nuclear war.
Added to this, who is to say that these elements will acquire control of said weapons. It is certain that the current government is likely to keep a tight rein on the program and attempt to make sure it lies in the hands of those they trust, more than those they don't.
Having said that, the willingness of these elements to return to more aggressive overseas policies involving assassination is certainly worrying, no matter how incompetent the plot.