US Intelligence Estimate Could Reshape Transatlantic Iran Strategy
The results of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program reveal nothing distinctly different from previous findings. Nevertheless, their ensuing debate could prove critical to long-term transatlantic strategy on Iran says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.
The strategic implications of the new NIE reveal that Iran may opt for an ambiguous nuclear strategy to reduce pressure for new international sanctions but simultaneously retain its strategic weight in the international scene. A further implication is that the Iran management debate can now focus more on longer-term requirements for both negotiation with Iran and the containment of a nuclear threat.
German Marshall Fund, December 11, 2007
