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The West Needs Turkey in Europe

F. Stephen Larrabee | Rand Corportation | March 2010

Discussions on Turkey's EU membership tend to neglect the fact that the country's strategic significance has skyrocketed since the end of the Cold War. From the standpoint of Western interests, Turkey plays a key role in conflict resolution from the Balkans to the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia, to the Persian Gulf region. It is hence essential that the United States and the transatlantic community improve its tattered relations with Turkey. The following issues need swift attention by Washington:

  • The Kurdish Problem: While Turkey accuses the United States of being too lenient in dealing with the Kurdistan's Worker Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, the West openly criticizes Ankara's repression of the Kurds. The US would do well to support Ankara to a greater extent politically on the issue and provide more intelligence on the terrorists. Washington should support talks between the Regional Government of Kurdistan in northern Iraq and the Turks. Nevertheless, the Kurdish problem cannot be resolved by military force alone. Instead social and economic reforms are necessary both in Turkey and in Iraq.
  • Tensions between Turkey and Greece: Discord in the Aegean as well as on Cyprus could easily turn into a conflict that would unnecessarily burden NATO. Hence Washington should more actively support negotiations between Athens and Ankara. Moreover, the two Cypriot communities should intensify their efforts at reconciliation under UN auspices.
  • Armenia: Washington would do well to support the thaw in relations between Erivan and Ankara. This would lessen the country's dependence on Russia and Iran. A paramount task for the Obama administration must be to prevent the passage of an Armenian genocide resolution in Congress, which would severely damage U.S.-Turkish relations.
  • Relations with Iran and Syria: Diametrically opposed views of how to deal with Iran and Syria have complicated U.S. relations with Ankara. While Turkish policymakers have pursued a rapprochement with Teheran and Damascus, Washington sought to isolate both countries. The U.S. would be well advised to place more emphasis on dialogue and be more considerate of the Turkish position.
  • Strategic cooperation: The U.S. should not take for granted access to military bases in Turkey. New talks should be initiated on the subject, as well as on the topic of a ballistic missile defense program to include Turkey.

  • EU membership: The U.S. should try to advance Turkey's cause by quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy. 

It is essential for U.S. interests that Turkey be integrated more fully into Europe. Hence it is counterproductive to keep holding up Turkey as a model for the Middle East. That will only lead the Turks to feel excluded from the European community and put into question their western and secular orientation.

This summary was prepared by the Atlantic Community Editorial Team from "Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change" published here by the RAND Corporation.

 

 
 
Comments
Member deleted

Tue, Mar 16th 2010, 22:32

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I think such policies like eliminating the prolonged negative attitudes on the US side towards the Turkish people can only prevent further deterioration of the bilateral relations.

It has to be understood clearly that much more than these are needed to re-establish a favorable view of the USA in the Turkish public opinion. Even than to regain the confidence of the Turkish people can not be achieved overnight as I am inclined to suppose.

On the other hand I have observed as an outsider that though being a super power is difficult to achieve but it is much harder to maintain it if the people are self-trapped by superiority complex which may even be detrimental to her development of healthy foreign relations!!!

Neverthelessly I am not saying that the Turkish people have already forsaken this important ally altogether despite her repetetive failures -whatever fictive excuses she may put forward- to act like reliable friend....

Thanks,
Mustafa
 
Olaf  Theiler

Wed, Mar 17th 2010, 08:46

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Stephen Larrabees points are all well made and right, but....

- On the U.S.-Turkey relations, he should also mention the problem of a currently very bad reputation the United States has in Turkey's public opinion. Here a real "winning minds and hearts"-campaign would be needed.

- trying to enhance Turkey's chances for EU membership is unrealistic in the years to come and all U.S. diplomacy, behind-the-scene or open pressure did not help and will not help. The political realities as well as personalities in the EU are currently not in favor for such an endeavor, unrespectable how logical or favorable it would be.

- Part of the problem is that the EU is not primarily a strategic actor, e.g. the EU is not acting and thinking in strategic terms, not towards Turkey and not towards most of today's strategic challenges. The EU looks and behaves more like a group of states still trying to find their internal balance of power but unable to direct any of their synergetic potential towards the world outside of their little turfs. Therefore, the EU priorities are first the economy, second internal rivalry, third national implications of EU decisions. And only if any strength and will for decision making is left after this, only then there will be a kind of strategic thinking on issues beyond the European borders.

- So finally, if the U.S. wants to help Turkey's rapprochement towards the West and the EU, Washington should help to solve the Cyprus problem first. The Cyprus-issue is the most important and visible obstacle in current EU-Turkey relations, it is also at the core of the NATO-EU blockage. A solution here would open up new and improved ways of cooperation with Turkey and thereby pave the way for a future membership. This would be much more helpful than lecturing a European audience on the strategic importance of Turkey that is not used or likely to think in these terms.
Tags: | Turkey | Cyprus | EU | NATO |
 
David  Foster

Tue, Apr 6th 2010, 22:45

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As I wrote in a previous article, Turkey is a country difficult to convince. However the US and Europe should be used in different terms rather than bunched into the term 'the West'.


A, The Democrats made a terrible mistake by pushing for the Armenian Bill once again. Although Prime Minster Erdogan exaggerated an issue that always comes up and is always eliminated before ever stepping into the Senate, the House ruined possible improvements for US-Turkey relations. Creates ten times more damage than it would ever do with creating benefits.

B, For Europe to building Turkish confidence in the EU is not an easy task. Turkey is very patriotic and protective of their sovereignty and do not trust other countries easily. In order for Europe to convince Turkey that the EU recognises that Turkey is as an important strategic ally, they should touch subjects that are meaningful in Turkey.

1. Strengthening cooperation against the PKK.

One of the main causes of Euro-scepticism of Turkish citizens has been over the PKK, a terrorist group founded in 1978 demanding an independent Kurdish state. Between the 1960s and 1990s, a substantial number of Kurdish people left Turkey to find asylum or work in Europe, especially in Germany and France. The terrorist group has found an environment to establish bases in Europe, taking advantage of Europe’s highly democratic freedoms for funding and acquiring support. Although European countries continue looking for terrorists and have carried out important operations to break down PKK activities, the EU countries would need to make a determinant decision on taking strict actions against the PKK in Europe.

2. Releasing pressure over Cyprus.

The EU has been, arguably, unfair about the Cyprus issue having an effect on Turkey’s accession. The Cyprus Dispute should be taken into consideration because it does not affect Croatia or Ukraine the same way it does Turkey. The Cyprus Dispute includes a bloody civil war, decades of not recognising the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and almost a war between Greece and Turkey. Apart from that, in 2004 the Annan Plan Referendum, which aimed at uniting both sides of the island with reasonable polices, was voted against by the Republic of Cyprus [mainly Greek] but voted in favour by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The Republic of Cyprus, now a member of the European Union, voted against a sensible solution to unite the island, and this action was ignored by the EU. The Turkish Republic in the North of the Island, who voted in favour of the Annan Plan, received no reward for their support in ending the dispute. Now the EU requires that Turkey to open trade and communications with the Republic of Cyprus as a requirement for accession. In this case this case the EU should remember the history the Cyprus Dispute and Annan Referendum, when Turkey wanted to end the dispute with a reasonable solution, and take it into consideration to exempt Turkey from recognising the Republic of Cyprus.

3. Condemning France’s Law on the Armenian Genocide

The EU should disapprove France’s Law which punish those who deny the Armenian Genocide. Turkey is very sensitive of this matter; because they believe that Armenian Genocide Recognition Movement is more anti-Turkish than anything else. Firstly, the Armenian Genocide, it has been argued, that it cannot be compared to the Holocaust because there was no open political movement at the time against the Armenian Community and there were numerous killings not solely on Armenians, but also on Turks (who have a Memorial in Igdir), Pontic Greeks, Assyrians and Kurds. Secondly, it is a subject still researched by historians and prosecuting those who do not believe that the event cannot be called ‘genocide’ is absurd, especially for political reasons.
Tags: | Turkey | US | EU |
 
Member deleted

Wed, Apr 7th 2010, 00:46

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Dear Mr. David Foster;

I think you have pinpointed the major sore spots which has been eroding the relations between the West and Turkey over the last few decades. Also your observation, though at a great distance, that the Turkish people in general have lost their trust in the West because of the consistent mistreatments of our cooperation by our Western friends needs to be appreciated by all concerned!!

Moreover I agree that it can no longer be justified to lump together the US & EU into one basket and to analyse their relation to Turkey at the same time. This is well put by yourself since it has become more and more apparent that the USA & EU are heading different directions. EU seems neither tolerant to pressures applied by the USA anymore nor interested in a US leadership of the Western world in general.

I think this is a healthy development since EU can thus develop her own identity as a separate entity and enter into the international political arena as an independent player. On the other hand the USA will be relieved of much of the burden they had taken on after the 2nd World War.

Regarding the sore spots you pointed out, I would rather discuss them in the order of their significance:


1) The French Law on Armenian Genocide proves nothing from my view point except the obvious antogonism of the French politicians -even also the French people- against Turkish people. The damage thus made on the trust of the Turkish people towards the West can in no way be remedied so long as such absurd and unfounded laws are existent here and there. My answer to a question like “What to do about them?” would be along the lines like “The remedies to these comic laws needs to be found by the individual parliments who legislated them!!!” I personally find it too difficult to suggest solutions to such absurdities.

2) The Greek Cypriots have voted down the Annan Plan thus accepting clearly the present status of a divided island! The Turkish Cypriots presently have been voting in the various polls tolls against unification of the island as well. So I find it very difficult to understand what problem there is left? The foreign insistence on unification has been making both communities unhappy as it has been reflected in the internatinal media.

3) The last one seems to be a domestic problem which can be and needs to be resolved in due time on brotherly grounds by those involved and the needless international interference apparently has been working against the interests of everybody in the area.
Tags: | Turkey | Turkey-West relations |
 
Olaf  Theiler

Wed, Apr 7th 2010, 09:02

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We all talked a lot about what the West (US and EU together and separately) should do. But there are also several things Turkey should do.

1. Come to terms with their own history. History will always haunt a nation if it is not willing to deal with it in an open and honest way. It is not only that I have to say this since it became second nature to most Germans, but also because examples showed that there is much truth in it. The recent events on Katyn are a good example, the same is true for the French history in Algeria (and most former African colonies in a more negative way since historic acceptance is still missing there - the same is true for Netherlands and Belgium for sure, and others propably also).
Nevertheless, producing a bill on Armenia in a moment of successful rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia was clearly not a symbol of good statesmanship

2. Come to terms with their own population, which includes naturally the Kurds and other minorities. The ban against Kurdish parties was not very helpful.
But again, it is more than true that European states should work closely together with Turkey to fight the militant fractions of Kurds. Germany is doing this successfully since several years – and rightfully so because we had Kurds and Turkish groups fighting each other on German streets more than once.

3. Come to terms with their own political groups. Turkey has a much more fractured political landscape than visible from the outside. The gap between the most popular (Islamist) parties and the (Kemalist) administrative elites in the foreign service, judicial system, armed forces and other peer groups are frightening and most damaging for the political stability. My impression is, that Erdogan and others are currently trying to bridge the gap by a two way approach that is highly dangerous: On the one hand they are putting the elites under pressure by arresting some of them with accusations that seemed to me as an outsider to be far fetched, on the other hand they are playing the nationalistic card to rally al Turks behind their flag. I have my doubts if this is going to be successful internally, but it is clearly damaging the relations to other Nations and the EU.
The EU could help this process by stopping to favor these elites as potential "protection against islamist forces in Turkey" and by criticising their anti-democratic attitudes instead.
Tags: | EU Turkey |
 
Member deleted

Wed, Apr 7th 2010, 14:51

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Dear Dr. Olaf Theiler,

Thanking you so much for your kind interest in Turkey, I attempted below to respond to your concerns to the best of my understanding in the form of some comments:

• I believe the Turkish people have already come to terms with their own history to the extent that it has been researched by scholars despite some relevant national archives are restricted –for inexplicable reasons- from scholarly investigation altogether. So far as I have observed living in Turkey since 1970’s, our people are proud of their past having faced the reality in terms of historical records that has been available so far. After all the Armenian Issue of 1915 had also been put into trial in the past several years back at the European Court of Justice on some occasion resulting in the Court Judgement that these incidents can not be termed “genocide”in legal terminology in any way! It is curious to know the dark motives behind those “irresponsible” legislations to the contrary??

• The present day Turkish Republic was established on the remnants of the Ottoman State (Osmanlı Devleti) in 1923 after the 1st World War followed by Turkish War of Independence. There was practically not much inheritance to the new Republic from the Ottoman State in the way of industrial estates, infrastructure, etc. except the ruins of the 1st World War & the following struggle with the ruthless invaders for freedom. Next on the line were the Great Depression and the 2nd World War delaying the take-off of the Turkish Economy up to the 1950’s. In summary the Turkish people had very little time –about 6 decades- so far for industrialization to develop into a modern society with ethnical homogenity and to disperse the economical development country-wide for the benefit of all Turkish citizens….

• Regarding Turkish domestic politics, it seems you are much better informed on this matter than I am as I have always found myself confused on this subject and have not been able to generate concise guide lines even for my own personal use. However the answers to your query in this respect may be hidden somewhere in my comments above. Neverthelessly I feel confident that the Turkish people will come out of the present hectic phase soon enough with flying colors as they have had successfully overcome much more troubled times in the past.

• Moreover being one of the peoples of the universe, the Turkish people has every right & freedom to develope at their own pace and in harmony with their own temperament within the framework of the projections of the Turkish Cultural Heritage reaching eventually their own preferred states as they may please! I personally do not think the Turkish people has any obligation to try to develop herself into some kinds of prescribed states to please others in contradiction with their own free will!

• Nevertelessly the ultimate goal of the Turkish people is to progress to the contemporary levels of advancement at least in science & technology. I am inclined to assume that this ultimate goal is fundamentally in parallel with the expectations our Western friends -but frankly put it must be admitted that such developments are not possible overnight and require ample time. Any intervention to speed it up may result in a combination of social, economical and political troubles at various degrees.

• Also one should not overlook the historical fact that the Turkish people are endowed with the accumulated experience of their ancestors in self-governing over thousands of years. Any oversight of such facts in various analyses related to present day Turkey, I believe will mislead us to opt for policies which will most likely fail in the long term culminating in more difficult and complex problems to sort out effectively.

 
Olaf  Theiler

Wed, Apr 7th 2010, 15:50

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Autch...

Dear Mr. Celik,
no offense meant from my side. I have argued in several comments here for what "the West" could and should do, so I naively assumed that it would only contribute to the debate to take also the other side and some potential Turkish contributions to the process into consideration.

I take great interest in Turkey, not only because I really think they are part of Europe and should be part of EUrope. I have Turkish friends in Berlin, which can be considered as the third biggest Turkish town, and in Brussels. Of course, I am as puzzled as you are about domestic politics in Turkey and it is always interesting to listen on these issues to Turks from all kinds of different background. But as I already said, it is only the impression of an outsider, nothing more, but also nothing less - meaning that no nation can do only domestic politics anymore, everything is being watched also from outside and can or will cause numerous speculations (which I am guilty of contributing to, I have to admit).

It is also interesting to hear that Turkey has come fully at terms on its history. Even I as a German, obsessed with our own history as we seem to be, would never say that we have been able to face the totality of our history. Truth is something that you will never be able to find, especially not in history. The only thing we can do is trying to redefine our history according to the most profound and up-to-date data available. Maybe Turkey as a state could do more to make this process including the current results more public in Western Europe. I fear that here, it is often seen as open question, not a closed chapter. This might be due to the persistent attempts of lobby groups to make it look like this, but if so, than it could be best countered by transparency, not complaints. You might also have noticed, that I never used the word "genocide". It is good to learn that the European Court of Justice has made an judgment on this and I will try to find more info on this, thank you for that.

I would also like to make one additional point. You said that you would "feel confident that the Turkish people will come out of the present hectic phase soon enough with flying colors". I have great respect for all accomplishments of Turkey and its people - in history and even more so in recent times. I can only say that I wish Turkey the best for its future and that Europe can only profit from a prosperous and healthy Turkish neighbor and partner. I am very optimistic that Turkey will flourish if it is able to overcome its domestic problems - and this is true for all our nations as we all face similar challenges, distinct in culture and capabilities, but nevertheless comparable. But at the same time, I am watching the return of nationalism and national egoism all over Europe with great fears and disappointment. I have seen enough of "flying colors" in history and started to fear them more than to appreciate them. Playing the nationalistic card in domestic politics is always a temptation for politicians, promising easy and fast gains. But in the long run, the definition of a "WE" always led to the definition of "OTHERs", and the step from "we AND others" to "we AGAINST others" is only a short one. My only answer to these fears is dialogue, cooperation and finally the hope of integration. That is why I am still a addicted European, not to have new "WEs" and new "OTHERs", but to have a sustainable and durable framework for cooperation and partnership.
Tags: | Turkey | EU | Turkey-West relations |
 
Member deleted

Wed, Apr 7th 2010, 18:16

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Dear Dr. Olaf Theiler,

I thank you so much for your kind response to my comments as well as your continued interest in the discussion.

I must warn you at the outset that I am practically not informed of legal matters at all and my knowledge of the Turkish history do not extend beyond accumulated hearsay plus some information acquired over the years reading a very limited number of books on history. Therefore I would very much like to avoid getting involved in any type of a debate on these subjects.

I also would like to ask you to accept my apologies for my vehemence in making my points trying to Express my views clearly: It turned out to be so because of my personal reaction to the intensive unfair propaganda undertaken in the Western media against my people regarding these current topics of public interest.

Having noted and appreciated your genuine interest to find out the truth and your sincere advices to assist me in my endeveaour for which I am not duly qualified, I will try to assist you by providing you with some reliable references which you can review and evaluate for yourself if you may find them worth your while.

Here follows a link on the Armenian Issue which I consider reliable because the comments made are supported by copies of the original documents from relevant official archives:

http://www.ermenisorunu.gen.tr/english/intro/index.html

I will also try provide you with some reference material on the court judgement made by the European Court of Justice on the Armenian Issue as soon as I can for your convenience.

Thanks again for trying to hear the Turkish side of this pitiful historical story as well in which both sides suffered greatly with the Turks being hurt more because the Armenian attacks were organized and backed up by the invading powers at the time…
Tags: | Turkey | EU | Turkey-West relations |
 
Olaf  Theiler

Thu, Apr 8th 2010, 12:24

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Dear Mr. Celik,
Thanks for your response and additional inputs. No offense taken on my side. I know that this is a very emotional issue for Turks (and others). Unfortunately, exactly these emotions are used together with the historical still unclear background as tools to create political damage even 90 years later. And for me, it is again proof of the dangerous potential of nationalistic movements and emotions that caused so much hate and grievance in Europe over the last two centuries.

It is widely unknown that Germany, the then Allied Partner of the Ottoman Empire, played a role (even if only a minor one) in these events. That is why I got interested in the issue in the first place. There is an interesting German/English website on research based on the Archives of the German Foreign Service from that time:

http://www.armenocide.de/

Two interesting Essay on Germanys role are:

http://hsozkult.geschichte.hu-berlin.de/rezensio/buecher/hindley.htm

http://www.hist.net/kieser/aghet/Essays/EssayBloxham.html

So far I was not successful to find any EU-Court decisions on this issue, but I will continue to search.

Best,

Olaf Theiler

 
Member deleted

Thu, Apr 8th 2010, 22:00

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Dear Dr. Olaf Theiler,

Thanks for your response and the information contained therein.

Below given is a link where you can find the several several Court Judgements made by the European Court of Justice in its original languages like German & French. This set of verdicts include also a Court Judgement rejecting the appeal made by the claimant side.

http://www.orhancekic.com/haberler.asp?id=461

Thanks for your interest.
Best regards.
 
Member deleted

Sat, Apr 24th 2010, 22:17

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Dear Dr. Olaf Theiler and Mr. David Foster,

Please kindly note at the following link by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, in original language, the official stand point of Turkish Government regarding President Obama’s repetition of his understanding of the Armenian Issue and the related 1915 incidents.

Such a misguided written announcement clearly demonstrates that his understanding and views reflects nothing but double standards:

http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-90_-24-nisan-2010_-abd-baskani-obama-tara...

Thanks for your interest,
Best regards
 

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