Despite some encouraging signs indicating the economy in some parts of the world is picking up, much uncertainty regarding the future of the world political and economic order remains. One thing that is certain, however, is the shifting balance of power, particularly palpable in the weakening of the US's global influence in relation to China's continuing rise to becoming arguably the only country that is capable of challenging the US's status as the world's sole superpower. Though China's rise to power has long been viewed as inevitable, it was made clear once again during President Obama's recent official visit to China, where he met with China's President Hu Jintao to discuss key issues such as climate change, the economic recovery and trade, human rights, and nuclear proliferation. During the talks, America no longer reserved the exclusive rights to flex its muscles unconditionally; on the contrary, America exercised unusual restraint in the face of another rising giant that holds $2.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, a majority of it in dollars, further demonstrating the substantial economic and political clout China has not just in its relation with the US, but with the rest of the world.
White House officials describe the trip as a success; however, many experts and analysts see it differently. This trip, according to them, resembles a reluctant acceptance of the shrinking advantages Washington once enjoyed in past meetings. President Obama had hoped to sway China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, to follow its fellow member Russia's footsteps on the issue of Iran's nuclear weapons, where President Obama was successful in getting Russia's President Dimitri Medvedev to open up to the prospect of using sanctions against Iran. Contrary to Russia, China evades Washington's request by refusing to comment on the sanctions. Instead, China suggests the use of dialogue and negotiations to resolve the situation. President Obama also failed to persuade China on the monetary front, as China once again refused to discuss the possibility of revaluing its currency. Although the two heads of state discussed various important issues facing the 21st century, with both acknowleding each other's commitment and role in navigating the world to a more peaceful and stable economic and political environment, no concrete agreement was reached between the two on the key issues. China undoubtedly held firm against most of Washington's demands, a clear demonstration of its ability to resist outside pressure, and more significantly, that it does not have to conform to any western models or values the US may try to impose on them.
Many critics may have criticized President Obama's soft stance towards China and not pushing hard enough for American interests, as have recent presidents, more notably Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. President Obama's attitude, nonetheless, represents a more realistic acknowledgement and acceptance of the US's diminishing influence over China. With this shifting balance of power, the dialogue and language between the two was much like an unharmonious dance choreography where many abstract ideas were displayed but no concrete conclusions were drawn. The only consensus the two could reach was on climate control, where the two agreed to establish a joint Clean Energy Research Center, and both countries plan to unveil their target to cut greenhouse gas emissions at the upcoming Copenhagen summit later this month. Given that both the US and China have made a bold and ambitious step towards climate change, the pressure is on for the other remaining major economies, most notably India, to take the appropriate steps and measures of their own to reduce the rate of growth of emissions.
These talks mark a significant milestone in American Post-WWII history. For the first time over the past few decades, the US finds itself in unfamiliar territory, one where its hegemonic influence is challenged by another resurrecting giant who is unafraid to say "no" to its demands. In this new world order, the US finds itself in the unusual predicament of having to rely more on soft power and persuasion rather then simply flexing its military muscles. The US has undoubtedly been burdened by its obligations at home as well as overseas with its continuing problems in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and it will only continue to see its reliance on foreign powers like China grow. This is one reality the US can no longer ignore - the sleeping dragon has indeed woken and is ready to stake its claim in the new international order, with or without the blessing of the US.
May Hu is a student at New York University.
Related Material from the Atlantic Community:
- Greg Randalph Lawson: Hedging is Wise as China Rises
- M Brzezisnki and M Fung: What Obama Should Propose in Beijing
- Memo 20: Consistent Engagement is Key
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December 1, 2009
Greg Randolph Lawson, Wikistrat, Platinum Contributor (522)
For all of the criticisms of American policy throughout the Middle East (Israel-Palestine, Iraq, Iran, etc), it is the inability of America to get a grip on spending that is driving it over the cliff of radical recklessness. However, it is manifestly not Iraq or Afghanistan that is the major fiscal problem (strategic considerations should be considered seperately). It is domestic spending and unfunded liabilities with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Indeed, it is social spending and the complete refusal of leaders to tackle these giants that is forcing America into a sustained weak fiscal position and giving other nations like China enhanced influence.
Americans need to save more and invest more domestically. When necesssary, government "stimulus" must be intense but highly targeted to areas where job creation and strategic gains can be simultaneously achieved. Sadly, America's political class prefers business as usual spending in order to shore up electoral contituencies with less focus on the larger strategic needs. It also refuses to look at sensible ways of cutting domestic spending. Its amazing that when times are good, new spending happens and then when a recession hits, the budget holes confronted loom larger than imaginable (and ever would under sensible spending policy). Just look at the fiscal disasters in state capitals throughout America and one can see the cost of profligate spending in boom times.
Additionally, the American people at large need to learn the curse of credit. While credit can be a powerful and needed tool for growth, it can also be a Pandora's box that individuals can never close until they are sucked dry by their inability to pay off debt. Until the fundamental mindset changes (and remains changed even when the economy shows signs of sustained growth), new bubbles will emerge and someone else will have to ride in to pay for poor decisionmaking.
As hard as it is for those eager to blame others, China is not the problem, and really is not even the long-term threat. American irresponsibility is.
American power will wane if Americans decide to abdicate responsibility in favor of government lagresse and personal conspicuous consumption of an inordinate magnitude. It is up to the American people to choose to re-establish a firm foundation for their nation or to choose to let its current cracks grow and devastate the entire structure. This choice is not pre-ordained, but decisions to change direction must come sooner rather than later. Fortune will not shine upon those who refuse to make the right decision when the consequences are evident.