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April 27, 2009 |  8 comments |  Print  Your Opinion  

Cohesion Vital for NATO's Future

Olaf Theiler: The balance of burden sharing is crucial to the strength of the alliance. Contributions ranging from military personnel to medical equipment are vital to securing successful outcomes. Ensuring NATO is cohesive is crucial to its future effectiveness.

Much of the debate about NATO's current crisis is related to its problematic mission in Afghanistan. At the core of this debate is the fact that some members are considered "free riders" while others could be called "overburdened" because they make impressive military as well as financial contributions and they also accept risk for their troops deployed in the combat in southern Afghanistan. Therefore, the question of how to measure and judge "equality" in the intra-alliance burden --  as well as risk sharing -- might be crucial to assure cohesion in an Alliance based on the principle of "the three Musketeers".

On the one hand, it is natural that nations like the Netherlands and Canada, which suffered considerable losses in southern Afghanistan, will complain about taking on an unequal share of the burden. On the other hand, it seems almost too easy to criticize nations like Germany for keeping tight restrictions on the use of their forces in Afghanistan. Instead of finger pointing at others with even less engagement in Afghanistan or using the usual German rebuke about their domestic situation, more thought should be given to the fundamental question: whether an unequal shared burden in non-Article-5 activities can and should be considered as "free riding" at all.

One counter argument would be the fact that the Bush Administration argued for a more flexible alliance, one that should be offering merely a tool box for future coalitions of the willing. And in some way, despite all the criticism from European Nations, NATO has evolved at least partly in this way. Using this measure, in a way, almost all out-of-area commitments -- even if under NATO flag -- could be seen as part of a coalition of the willing. Therefore, more than just black and white criteria like raw troop commitments and death toll would be needed to measure solidarity. What about civil and financial contributions to missions, where success could not be achieved with military means alone, as is the case in all recent NATO out-of-area activities? Despite all the criticism about a revival of "check book diplomacy", it should be remembered that these contributions might be as critical as military personnel for mission success.

Furthermore, other military engagements outside of NATO might also been taken into account. Just one not too hypothetical example: would or could a European-only military mission in Africa, undertaken maybe in order to avoid mass movements of refugees into the European Union, be seen as a lack of burden sharing from the US? If not, this would call for a much broader assessment of burdens and risks to be shared. In addition, one of the most important issues here is whether national interests are at stake. At least three different kinds of national interests should be taken into account:

  • First and most importantly, there are vital national security interests. If they are at stake, which could be argued in Afghanistan, we come at least close to the Art.5 issue and everything else other than a full scale engagement could rightfully be called free riding. But the extent to which security interests are involved will, of course, depend largely on the national perceptions of the level, scope and nature of the threat. Therefore, free riding should not be judged from the standpoint of a single nation's definition.
  • Second, there is the long term interest in NATO's solidarity and reliability. In this case only a limited engagement might be justified at the domestic front. Therefore, the slightest contribution might be an important symbol of alliance solidarity.
  • And third, there are other bilateral interests like the hopes of some Eastern European governments to build a special relationship with the US by contributing more than the normal share to missions, like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. In this case, it could be argued that any reference to burden sharing should be avoided since these are more or less egoistic national interests.

Since these debates are going to haunt NATO again and again, it will be very important for the future cohesion of the alliance to address the issue in depth. Much more research and well thought out assessments will be needed to achieve a more balanced answer than currently offered in the media.

 Dr Olaf Theiler is a national specialist in NATO's Operations Division in the International Staff of NATO HQ in Brussels, Belgium

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Tags: | NATO | burden-sharing | Afghanistan |
 
Comments
Bernhard  Lucke

April 29, 2009

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I would say that "fair" burden-sharing should involve a different system of decision making, because if you take the risk, costs, and responsibility, you want a respective decision power.

But with a "fairer" decision structure, is likely that NATO would soon suffer problems as the European Union. This might simply lead to an inability to make decisions - but which might not only be negative, since it would put stronger emphasis on the defensive character of the alliance.

Afghanistan is a prime example of a generally dubious endeavour, which forces us now to completely re-think the alliance. It would have been much better if this had been an U.N. mission.

It might only be fair to re-structure the system of burden-sharing in NATO, but I'd demand to re-structure the process of decision-making, too. A direct democratic principle should be involved: if NATO decides that it is necessary to "defend itself at the Hindukush", plebiscites in the participating member countries should be obligatory.
 
Natalie Catherine Chwalisz

April 30, 2009

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Thank you for your great contribution. These are crucial concerns about the future of NATO. Unfortunately, NATO is not ready to engage in a transparent debate over the new challenges it is facing, let alone internal divisions on burden sharing. Its unwillingness to openly discuss important decisions was exemplified again by the manner in which they chose its secretary general recently. However, your analysis on the complexity of national interests at stake is right on.

This will also impact the oncoming challenges of NATO, including, as you suggested, decision-making rules, but also its evolving relationship with Russia and the possible expansion into a in increasingly global alliance.

This increasingly complex picture of various national interests also risks diluting the solidarity NATO stands for, if it is not addressed in a debate like the one for which you push: there is a risk that the differences over Russia’s invasion of Georgia and especially about the burden sharing in Afghanistan will deepen, if the diversifying national interests are not recognized and subordinated to the general strategic focus of NATO.

 
Donald  Stadler

May 1, 2009

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"like the hopes of some Eastern European governments to build a special relationship with the US by contributing more than the normal share to missions"

Might not work so well. The US has contributed more than it's fair share to the defense of Western Europe for two generations, hoping to build aspecial relationship with it.

How did that work out? Not too well, judging by the last decade.....
 
Donald  Stadler

May 1, 2009

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100% correct, Natlie. NATO is notready for a serious discussion about anything. Or perhaps too ready, NATO is all about endless wringing of hands and 'serious' discussion - but never anything of moment comes out of all this discussion except the agenda for more rounds of discussion.

A lot like this website, come to think of it..... ;)
 
Natalie Catherine Chwalisz

May 4, 2009

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Dear Donald,

I am sorry to hear your criticism about the website. However, we do draft Atlantic Memos based on strong policy discussions. Under Atlantic Memo, you can find some examples. Those policy recommendations are then send to specialists and policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic working on this specific topic.
I am currently working on the piracy memo- and the policy recommendations are solid, thoughtful and unique; a true addition to the debate.

As an internet forum, we facilitate international debate on topics of transatlantic concern.However, we are always open to suggestions on how we can improve our services. Please feel free to contact any of our editors, which you can easily do through this website, by clicking on our profiles and contacting us.

best,
Natalie and Editorial Team
 
Natalie Catherine Chwalisz

May 4, 2009

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@ Donald,

It is true that following WWII, the US invested substantially in Western Europe, and it has achieved its Foreign Policy Goals: A stable, peaceful Europe- that remained so, even with a united Germany; and has remained a strong ally of the US.

I don't understand the bitterness of Americans: When it comes to the Iraq war, the hands of European governments were tight. In the case of Germany, the German secret service analyzed correctly, that there were no weapons of mass destruction, and thus, with public pressure against the war, no democratic government could have risked supporting the US government on a mission that was based on faulty intelligence. I don't understand the argument that due to this policy decision, some EU states are not good allies of the US anymore. You can't be referring to the Afghanistan war, since there NATO is fighting alongside the US.

However, this threat is moving away from the original article, for which I apologize. Such a discussion would best be moved to a new page, based on a new opinion article.
 
Marek  Swierczynski

May 5, 2009

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Trying to be an advocate for the devil for a while, one can say it is the US that have misconducted the Afghan war from day one. By underestimating Pakistan (and overestimating Iran), by skimping on troops in the early stage (because they were to conquer Iraq), by neglecting the civilian-link strategy (it was ultimately left to NATO) the US have created a mess that no one seems to be ready to clean up now. And those less devoted to the Euro-American brotherhood can argue it is the US that should take the burden of the Afghan clean-up on its shoulders. As to whether Europe has real security interests in Afghanistan - it is a tricky matter. Some countries do (UK), others not neccesarily (Czech Republic). What NATO needs - and what was sidelined in the glory of the recent celebrations - is a clear strategy of what could be reasonably achieved in forseeable time in Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Is it securing these countries - or securing NATO members from the threats emerging in these countries. I think the two are completely different tasks and NATO has to decide which one is its own.
Tags: | NATO | Afghanistan | Pakistan |
 
Jerzy S Deren

November 6, 2009

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“Much of the debate about NATO's current crisis is related to its problematic mission in Afghanistan”. Yes Dr Olaf, you are right, however, clue of the problem making current discussion sound , is hidden in the space behind of the official scene. Albeit the problems are known, its political sensitivity doesn’t allow to justify them in an transparent way. Making an attempt to contribute to your view “Much more research and well thought out assessments will be needed to achieve a more balanced answer than currently offered in the media.” I’m going to focus on two major issues, in my opinion, having strong impact on military – political situation development in Afghanistan. It is obvious, that it is only tip of the top of this Iceberg:
First, Chain of Command - I’m sure that you are familiar with MC decision on transition of Headquarters ISAF from Core to Composite model and as the results US got permanent post for and responsibility for ISAF DMP. No bad, continuity and advisory function is kept, however this has created serious problems and NCS experienced a lot of trouble with further employment of GRF HQ staff in ISAF HQ. In addition, outcome of such decision has influenced entire Command and Control process. You probably noticed when COMISAF gen S McChrystal, double hated, bypassed one level of NATO Chain of Command (JFC B) with cc: to SACEUR (US) and, confidential Commander’s Initial Assessment delivered to national authority. On the other hand it has been controlled leak through to the public opinion (30 August 2009, 66 pages).A couple weeks later, during NATO ministerial meeting held in Bratislava, COMISAF briefed audience on the future of US (NATO?) strategy, Force Requirements (more troops) included. While NATO rules are overseen I’m looking for justification, where NATO multinational and international staff was present during this whole process? Why ISAF Commander didn’t report to SACEUR at ACO Mons, Belgium, NATO Strategic Command which bears responsibility for NATO operations?
Second: Posture of the NATO troops and Non NATO Troops Contributing Nations. In your opinion “some members are considered "free riders" while others could be called "overburdened"”. Such methodology might be used, however, you should bear in mind that some of the members are either powerful countries presenting various attitude and specific geopolitical interest in the region, when others, on the contrary performs less significant roles. This patchwork is mixture of implication of global policy trends and various human resources nature, habits and skills associated with or limited state of art technology which as a whole is crucial for mission future. Full spectrum of existing conditions in such Theatre is presented in “Taliban, Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia” Ahmed Rashid’s book. Finally, moving closer to ISAF job, OPLAN has been developed and dozen of assumptions were taken into account by top bras policy makers and military. At the end of this demanding process thousands of troops, drawn from 42 countries are responsible on the ground for plans implementation. Prerequisite for such mission is presence of full spectrum capabilities which are required IAW Force Generation process to conduct such CJTF operation in order to accomplish desired military and political end state. In real life, on the ground, what is publicly well known in spite of force generation requirements , ISAF is killed by so called “national caveats” and inadequate to tasks “national contingents’ ROEs”. All of them are “bad factors” and hamper ISAF Commander in OPLAN execution as well as limits his DMP and, finally crates huge gaps in capabilities sought for mission accomplishment in line with LoOs. Has HQ NATO any reliable concept to use any military or political mechanism to reduce to the minimum these bed factors? Are all NATO and NNTCN troops (HQs) have achieved FOC and are capable to implement results of effects – based thinking OPP and use CDSS Tools necessary to conducts 4 block operation and counter and defeat asymmetric threat?
Best regards
 

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