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June 28, 2007 |  8 comments |  Print  Your Opinion  

John Hulsman

Democracy Building: How The US Could Learn From Lawrence of Arabia

John Hulsman: I offer four simple lessons in state building from the great British officer. A respect for history could help keep America out of future misadventures like the present situation in Iraq.

America’s present day difficulties in democracy building in Iraq illustrate a depressing ideological sameness. Whether we are talking about Haiti, Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, or Iraq, one constantly runs into the same failed philosophy. Top-down, state-building efforts imposed from outside, efforts that pay little more than lip-service to the ideal of making locals stakeholders in the process, are doomed to failure. Instead, we would do well to recall the life of the gallant British officer, T.E. Lawrence. As a historical figure, Lawrence was immortalized by Peter O’Toole’s famous portrayal in the movie Lawrence of Arabia. Embellishment aside, the core of Lawrence’s brilliance is contained within what he thought and how he operated, as much as for what he actually did. Juxtaposed against Lawrence, the Bush administration’s follies in Iraq would serve as an almost comic foil, if so many lives had not been destroyed.

Lesson #1: It is critical to accurately assess the unit of politics in a failed state.
Instead of looking for Thomas Jefferson, Western elites must work with countries as they find them. In the case of modern Iraq, the unit of politics is religious and ethnic, with the three primary building blocks being the Shia (roughly 60% of the population), the formerly ruling Sunnis (20%) and the Kurds (around 20%). Early utopian efforts to ignore this reality and talk of supporting “Iraqis” rather than working with Iraq’s genuine building blocks has died down, blunted by the gloomy day-to-day political realities.

Lesson #2: To work against the grain of history is to fail at state building
To immediately and artificially impose Western standards on a failed non-Western state while disregarding its own unique culture is to court disaster. For example, naive American efforts to limit the role of Islam in the new Iraq did little more than alienate Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the key representative of the Shia.

Lesson #3: Local elites must be made stakeholders in any successful state-building process.
In disbanding the Iraqi army, Paul Bremer, the American viceroy in Baghdad, unwittingly laid the groundwork for a period in which it was the American-led coalition, rather than a fusion of American and Iraqi military forces, that became responsible for the security of the country. This was perhaps America’s greatest mistake in state building in Iraq, for it meant that the West, rather than Iraqis themselves, took the lead in rebuilding the country.

Lesson #4: A Western country should engage in the arduous process of state building only when primary national security interests are at stake.
In the Great War, Lawrence became convinced that the defeat of Turkey was possible through energizing the Arab Revolt and that this would prove greatly beneficial to a hard-pressed Britain. American efforts at state building ought to be discussed in similarly hard-headed terms. The 1990s American efforts at state building display an undifferentiated quality in terms of American national interests. The Clinton Administration never met a failed state it did not want to intervene in, however peripheral to American interests (Haiti, Somalia, Kosovo, Bosnia).
The differentiation of when and where to engage in state building, guided by national interest calculations, will stop an overextended America from frittering away for little gain the competitive advantages that have made it the dominant power in the world. Sometimes the answer is no. As John Quincy Adams put it, “America is the well-wisher to the freedom of all. She is the guarantor of only her own.” State building is simply too complicated to be attempted more than necessary—it should be engaged in only when primary American interests are at stake.

Iraq has quieted the state-building lobby in Washington, but only for the moment. Doubtless, soon they will rise up, blandly explaining that it is the President’s incompetence, rather than their precious, top-down state-building strategy, that is to blame for the disaster in Iraq. When the moment arrives, it is up to the rest of us, guided by a rudimentary knowledge of history, to present them with a copy of Lawrence’s masterpiece, The Seven Pillars of Wisdom


John C. Hulsman, PhD, is the Von Oppenheim Scholar in Residence at the German Council on Foreign Relations. He also is the President of John C. Hulsman Enterprises and a contributing editor to the National Interest.


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David  Vollmer

July 3, 2007

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Lawrence was not in the business of "Democracy Building".
He just united the Arab tribes to fight the Turks. He might have done a bit of state building along the way, but certainly not democracy building.

Hulsman's advice is good, but comes about five years too late. Why has not he or anybody else published this advice before the Iraq war?
 
Robert  Shawley

July 3, 2007

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I think it is a bit unfair to bash Hulsman's article on the basis that his advice is 5 years late. You might as well pick the Vietnam War (or the American War, as the Vietnamese call it) and say his advice is 30 years too late: since the core message of the piece is that state-building is impossible without a historical perspective, the application of local knowledge, and the empowerment of local stakeholders. While I strongly support repeating this message over and over again (for some reason, each new generation of policy-maker seems to forget it), I do have issues with some of the statements made:

1. "In the case of modern Iraq, the unit of politics is religious and ethnic, with the three primary building blocks being the Shia (roughly 60% of the population), the formerly ruling Sunnis (20%) and the Kurds (around 20%)."
There is a strong case to be made here that Iraqi nationalism was quite highly developed - compared to other countries in the region, anyways. Also the rate of inter-religious and inter-ethnic marriages was extremely high - much higher than in any of Iraq's neighbors. The reason we are witnessing ethnic cleansing now is because foreign elements are actively trying to incite violence along such lines (in the case of Al Qaida and maybe Syria, Iran, etc.). Additionally, us having gone in there with exactly the perception that there is those three primary groups that have to be worked with has unwittingly reinforced that division.

2. "The Clinton Administration never met a failed state it did not want to intervene in, however peripheral to American interests (Haiti, Somalia, Kosovo, Bosnia)." Comparing Iraq prior to the second Gulf War with these states is wrong. Iraq was an extremely repressive autocratic regime and its economy and development crippled by sanctions - but it wasn't a failed state. It only became one after the invasion. There are good arguments to be made that in today's world, failed states present a threat to all countries, no matter how far away they are. In 2002, Iraq was no threat to anyone.

Yet, the core message stands: know thy target of conquest, and know it well. This is a message worth repeating as many times as policy-makers forget it, irrespective of whether it is 5 years before or 5 years after the next state-building enterprise, which I am pretty sure my generation will have the unfortunate pleasure of being witness to.
 
David  Vollmer

July 3, 2007

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Robert,
I am not bashing Hulsman, I am not just saying that he should have given this advice five years ago, when the US was talking about democracy promotion in the Middle East by military force. Scientists should give timely advice, rather than when it is too late.

Many observers have argued recently that the US media and the Democrats were not critical enough, when the Bush administrations talked about their plans for war with Iraq in 2002 and 2003. I think we should include academia in this criticism as well. So let me ask again: Why has not anybody published this basic Lawrence advice before the Iraq war?

Hopefully the Atlantic Community can change that. It would be great if you guys would deal with upcoming conflicts. Focus on future threats. Deal with international conflicts before they are too big to be fixed. An open think tank with user generated policy suggestions might be more useful to save the world than this Think Tank circus in Washington. I call it a circus because most ot these guys are so full of themselves. They are so convinced that they are super smart and know everything, but in the end it is just hot air. Smart phrases that fit on bumper stickers, but do not fix problems. Those guys are great fundraisers and PR specialists, but only few of them are real experts about the topics they write about it.
Think Tanks follow certain fashions.
In 1991, most Think Tanks agreeed with Bush senior that the US should not invade Bagdad and do regime change. They all thought that Saddam is a son of a bitch, but argued that a removal of Saddam would lead to civil war, and the US can't deal with that.
In 2003, most Think Tanks changed their position by 180 degree and agreed with Bush junior, because that was en vogue at the time.
In 2007, it is en vogue to consider Bush stupid, thus everybody is writing that Bush has made stupid mistakes and did not read Lawrence.
It would have been more constructive if scientists had written in 2003 that Bush should read Lawrence's Seven Pillars of Wisdom, but nobody did that. Right?

Re your statements: Was Iraqi nationalism (incl. inter-ethnic, inter-religous marriages) really strong before the war? If that was the case, how come that "foreign elements" are able to incite so much inter-ethnic violence now? Aren't you contradicting yourself?

I agree with you on #2. Jesus, the first time I read Hulsmann I missed his statement "The Clinton Administration never met a failed state it did not want to intervene in, however peripheral to American interests (Haiti, Somalia, Kosovo, Bosnia)."

This is uninformed Clinton bashing.
a) Bush senior started the Somalia intervention. Clinton inherited the mess and mades some additional mistakes.
b) Clinton did not want to intervene in Bosnia. We stupid Europeans wanted to fix it. The "hour of Europe", but we failed. Then we begged the US to intervene. Clinton hesitated. The Europeans complained about "isolationist" Americans; quite the opposite of what we see now. Lesson: Whatever the US is doing, it is wrong: If the US does not intervene enough, we Europeans complain about "isolationism". If the US intervenes more, then they are accused of "imperialism."
c) Clinton did not intervene in the failed states of Ruanda, Afghanistan, Congo and many more.
 
Oliver  Hauss

July 4, 2007

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David:

I remember plenty of people warning that an outside invasion is a recipe for disaster and unlikely to generate a stable post-war situation. Heck, I myself stated in plenty of online discussions that if anyone should depose Saddam, it should be the Iraqi people. As a matter of fact, it should be clear to anyone whose country suffered a foreign invasion that a foreign invasion is about the most problematic way to a fresh start. A revolution, however bloody, is a crucible for national identity. A foreign invasion is a way to tell people "You're too dumb to get your act together", whether that is justified or not.

Your point that Think Tanks follow a certain fashion is why I like to distinguish between academia and Think Tanks: Think Tanks deal in ideas and supposed solutions, academia deals chiefly in one thing: knowledge. A Think Tank has to provide suggestions for an answer to the issue brought before it, academia has the luxury--and the responsibility--to shrug and say "Honestly, I have no idea how to solve this issue at this moment in time" -be it that the data is not sufficient or that the means aren't there.

Regarding your last statements, I strongly disagree. You are confusing the various theatres and missions. NATO was involved at an early stage for air interdiction. This was at the request of the UN, to enforce a UN no-fly zone. Since several parties showed little respect for UN troops, even using them as human shields, Europe and NATO agreed on a rapid reaction force. Air strikes at the early stage were precisely to relieve UN troops and lift sieges. These were operations against the Bosnian-Serbian forces.

Then there was a second intervention by NATO, concerning the Kosovo theatre. This was an entirely different ballpark. What's worse, it wasn't particularly productive: The main goal of ensuring a Kosovo referendum on independence wasn't reached, and the direct bombing of Serbia, with high-profile collateral damage and the insistence on German participation in my eyes did a lot to entrench serbian nationalism to this day ("The Nazis are bombing Belgrade again").

This operation had a different quality because it was NOT in cooperation with the UN. The initiative here, especially for the specific form of the engagement, indeed came from the US, which was hesitant to put troops on the ground. As a matter of fact, the precise form of an extended bombing campaign put a significant economic toll also on European countries, because the Danube waterway was cut off by destroyed bridges. Especially in cases where such bridges led to a new NATO member, Hungary, denial of use could have been ensured in a far less destructive fashion.

So let's not confuse the different theatres and missions, please.

I fully agree that Hulsman's statement on the Clinton administration is ridiculous, since it involves UN and NATO operations, but that shouldn't be used to bash others, either.
 
Robert  Shawley

July 4, 2007

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Hi David,

I’m gonna have to agree with Oliver on the think-tank issue. There was a significant minority within the think-tank community and I dare say a majority within the academia (the two should not be confused, you’re absolutely right) calling attention to the difficulties an Iraq invasion would face as well as holes in the way preparations and coalition-building was exercised by the Bush administration in the run up to the war. Unfortunately, they didn’t get the coverage - which is why everyone is still going on about the failure of the press. Alas, knowledge is only as effective as the people that have it.

With regards to Iraqi nationalism: yes, compared with European or American nationalism it was weak, which is why I qualified my statement by saying “compared to other countries in the region”. It should also not be forgotten that there were tremendous additional pressure tearing at the fabric of Iraqi nationalism, and society at large. I also mentioned the conception with which ‘Coalition of the Willing’ entered Iraq, namely that Iraq is made up of Shi’ites, Sunnis and Kurds. These were subsequently engaged with according to which strongman held the most sway over their respective ethnic group, leaving all those Iraqis occupying the ‘grey zone’ without a stake in future governance.
Add to that ethnicity-targeted Al-Qaeda suicide bombers, ethnicity targeted US military sweeps, and rapid rise of ethnicity-oriented militias and you quickly end up in a situation where all channels of society run via the ethnic group to which you belong to - irrespective of whether you felt particular attachment to it prior to the invasion or not.

Your point is a very important one, however. The executive branches of our governments, the most advanced liberal democracies in the world, are still woefully indifferent to opposing opinion once an election is out of the way. I was in London on the 15th of February 2003. Two million people took to the streets - the biggest demonstration in London and, as far as I know, in the history of demonstrations. More than 75% of the populace was against the war. We all know how the executive reacted: they didn’t give a damn. It is not the academia or even the think-tanks that are to blame for such failure - they merely give the leaders of our countries a bigger pool of what they would have chosen to listen to anyway: whatever they decided already.
 
David  Vollmer

July 6, 2007

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Oliver

"I remember plenty of people warning that an outside invasion is a recipe for disaster and unlikely to generate a stable post-war situation."

Can you name any leading "expert"? One of those TV pundits from the big think tanks? Anybody with a PhD AND significant public influence? Any of those guys that pride themselves to have advised presidents?

Take Fukuyama. First he advocated the Iraq war, but now he writes a big book blaming the evil Neocons for making ten stupid mistakes, while ignoring that he himself was one of them. Why did not he give better advice about Iraqi regime change, while he was still considering himself a Neocon? Why has not Hulsman published his advice in 2002?

It's just like this End of History nonsense. In the early nineties, Fukuyama made a ton of money with that thesis. The perfect thesis for Westerners with big egos, who thought they won't the Cold War and are now masters of the universe and don't have to worry about wars and conflicts, but can watch shallow Seinfeld all day.
Now he writes another book with the opposite message, while claiming that he was all misunderstood beforehand. .

Let's face it: Think Tanks say nearly anything to make money, while most senior university professors (the real experts) love theories and are too snobbish to give policy advice.
 
Oliver  Hauss

July 6, 2007

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@David:

I don't remember any "TV pundits from the big think tanks", but I do remember some of the people German media usually turns to very much warning against an invasion, whether one likes people such as Scholl-Latour or no...

There is a now-funny pamphlet by the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation in which it tried to decry some of the pre-war warners as "Phantasten". It is ironic that a lot of the points they cite have turned out to become very real:

"Wie Scholl-Latour sah auch Lüders eine Dauer-Intifada im Irak kommen, allerdings
nicht so sehr aus kulturellen Gründen, als vielmehr deshalb, weil die Iraker sich alsStammesgesellschaft verstünden und sich aus diesem Grund gegen alle Eindringlinge verteidigen würden, selbst unter dem Kommando Saddam Husseins. Den USA sagte er einen imperialen Feldzug nach, auf Kosten der Araber, die sich aber seiner
Auffassung nach mit allen ihnen zur Verfügung stehenden Mitteln zur Wehr setzen
würden. Daher prognostizierte er, dass der Irak das „Schlachtfeld der Zukunft sein
(werde) im Kampf gegen die westliche Hegemonie in der Region“."
( http://www.cdu.de/tagesthema/phantasten_kas.pdf )

Funny, but while it didn't happen 100% precisely like that, four years after the paper, the "constant Intifada" and the "battlefield against western hegemony in the region" certainly ring true given the status quo.

Also, if you check
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/19/AR2... you will see an actual NIC assessment predicted a lot of the problems we're observing.

The problem wasn't that there were no warnings. The problem was that the administration and its supporters chose to ignore it. It reminds me awfully of a quotation in an October 17, 2004, New York Times Magazine article by Ron Suskind, quoting an unnamed aide to George W. Bush:

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
 
William L T Schirano

July 9, 2007

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David,

With all due respect of course.

As someone who worked very closely with John Hulsman for the previous 4 years, he is not 5 years late to the punch on this one. In fact, prior to his publishing "Ethical Realism," John was working on this book that examined T.E. Lawrence's experiences during the Arabia campaign and what they could teach us about Nation Building. From what I understand, that book will be published in the near future. Work on that book originally began in 2004---before any serious analyst was even thinking about the potential challenges that we would face in Iraq.

If you'd like to, I would take a look over at the Heritage Foundation's website for a speech that he gave back in 2005. The address is: http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/Iraq/upload/83549_1.pdf

Best,
William L T Schirano
Alexandria, VA
 

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