RSS

June 6, 2008

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

I suspect European hopes will ultimately be 'dashed' no matter whether Obama beats McCain or not. It's possible that Obama would actually be worse for 'Europe' than McCain would be, because McCain's mindset is still inextricably Cold-War in a way that Obama's can never be. The Atlantic alliance is part of the McCain worldview. He grew up with it as a Navy brat and lived with it for his entire life.

Obama's realities are completely different, given that he grew up in Indonesia and Hawaii, and was a very young man when the Cold War ended.

If elected Obama will be the first post Cold-War President. Europe may well dislike the direction an Obama Presidency would take the US. One of the ties holding the US to Europe is - Iraq. Believe it or not, the tie with the UK is one of the strongest reasons for the US to remain a strong player in the Atlantic Alliance. If Obama pulls the US out of Iraq and Afghanistan (unthinkable for McCain) it would profoundly weaken perhaps the only strong remaining tie with Europe.

A central fact of the Cold-War mind-view was the central and unique importance of Europe. One of the factors which seems to most disturb many in Europe about 'Bushism' is the fact that Rumsfeld and others in this period have doubted the unique importance of Europe and of the alliance. They feel slighted.

Well, look at things from Obama's POV. He's an African-American with a father from Kenya, so Africa is going to be important to him. He grew up in Asia and Hawaii - Asia is going to be important in his worldview. Both for that reason and because of it's rising importance economically and militarily. He grew up with Muslims - the Middle East is going to be important to him. I supect Latin America will be at least as important as it has been to Bush because Brazil is a coming power.

Europe? Europe will remain important of course - but not of *central* importance. This is an inevitable development, the only question is when. The election of John McCain could delay the onset by 4 or 8 years; with Obama the 'future is now'.

June 6, 2008

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

"The qualities that Europeans value in a US president are not the same ones that matter to Americans. "

Precisely so. Germany would not refrain from re-electing Schroeder because it dismayed or angered people in the US; why should the people of the US behave differently because Germans hold a strong preference?

If the US elects a Democrat it will be for reasons rooted in the US, not because Europeans prefer one flavor of US politician over the other.

"Europe should tone down its expectations, and come to terms with the possibility of another GOP presidency."

Probably so. The US could elect McCain - it's hardly unthinkable. I don't believe that is probable. I reckon Obama has a 60% chance of being elected over McCain. But be careful what you wish for - Obama is the first major candidate to come of age post-Gorbachev, and that probably means he has a much different world view than any previous President.

June 8, 2008

Ilyas M. Mohsin, PPP, Platinum Contributor (296)

All speculative stuff. It must be very flattering for Americans that even now their presidential elections/ campaign attracts so much interest/ concenn in other continents. As pointed out above it must be due to personal unpopularity of the incumbent the world over which has done the greatest damage to US credibility/power/goodwill. Due to arrogance of power exercised in the first 5 years of his stay in the White house, US now, unfortunately, appears to stand for war crimes, Gitmo, Abu ghuraib, Bagram etc. It will be difficult to overlook that about 2 million people have been killed in the 'occupation' of Iraq / Afghanistan besides the utter destruction of those countries.
In the process, US itself is suffering due ti the undermining its own democratccic norms typified by Chu' Memo, disclosures like McCllelan etc. While the average American is suffering due to th eoil-crunch, the
MNCs/ private contractors etc are making fantastic profits from the 'occupied' countries. Iraqis allege stealth of their oil on the part of such influential US elements.
It is for the Americans to decide who can save their country from becoming an also-ran. Obama appears to have the distinction of belonging to the post cold-war generation; others seem to represent the Ancient Regime. His capacity to inspire hope through 'the arrogance of hope' offers a great chance for US and all. Europe should not pretend to discredit HOPE as a concept and as a Mission.

June 8, 2008

David Vickrey, Dialog international, Gold Contributor (93)

I have to disagree with Herr Lenz that "chances are good" that McCain will win the presidency. Barack Obama has broken through the cycle of bluster and sabre-rattling abroad and fear-mongering at home with a message of change that resonates with the majority of Americans. And the change will also affect transatlantic relations with Europe. An Obama administration will reverse the Bush doctrine of unilateral preemptive war and torture of detainees - making it possible once again for European leaders to be openly pro-American. And President Obama will look to Europe as equal partners with the US in meeting the unprecedented struggles that face us all: climate change, renewable energy, the growing food crisis. Europe would no longer be a bit player in some delusional neoconservative dream of permanent American empire.

The next five months will be very interesting: the world will see a different America carry Barack Obama to a decisive victory in November.

June 8, 2008

David Vollmer, Uni Mannheim, Silver Contributor (26)

Mr. Lentz is right about Obamania in Germany, but is wrong in stating that McCain "is not even on the radar screen."

McCain is well known in Germany, and very respected in the security community. He has a good network here. Most experts here prefer a McCain presidency, despite all his comments on Russia and Iran. And even ordinary folks in Germany are smart enough to realize that Americans have different preferences than Germans and therefore might elect McCain.

June 9, 2008

Johanna Gregor, Atlantic Community, (6)

On Europe's Preferences Concerning a US Presidential Candidate and how much Europe will Matter in the Future:

First of all Mr. Vollmer, Mr. Vickrey, Mr. Mohsin, Mr. Stadler, thank you for your comments!
Many German decision makers and foreign policy experts hope for McCain to become the next US president, because they are able to do their math. With respect to security politics, for a long time the European ally was in a fairly comfortable position: resting under the US security umbrella and having to pay considerably little for this protection. ESDP is still quite a weak tool, because it was never seriously demanded by the American partner, Europe was relying on. Europe expects McCain to continue with this unilateral foreign policy. Not having to pay much and still being able to criticize American unilateralism was just too good to resist for the Europeans in the past.

In the international system, we are witnessing a shift of power from East to West. The United States are loosing or have already lost their hegemonic position. Global challenges like energy security, climate change, non-proliferation or AIDS call for multilateral action and global governance. Europe will therefore not lose any of its central importance (contrary of what Mr. Stadler said).

June 9, 2008

Donald Stadler, Self-employed, Diamond Contributor (1052)

"Europe will therefore not lose any of its central importance (contrary of what Mr. Stadler said)."

Whether the US is 'losing its hegemonic position' or not, I fail to see how that can be used as a reason to assert that Europe isn't losing it's central position. Look around the planet and tell me what you see. Are not China, India, Brazil, and even South Africa not far more of a global force than they were in 1975 or 1980? Has not the end of the Cold War diminished Russia in a major way? Does Europe remain on the front lines of the superpower conflict?

In 1975 Europe was one of three major power blocs on the planet. The US, the USSR/Warsaw Pact, and Europe - those were the players. Japan was a major player economically and China fairly major militarily but that was about all.

Today both India and China are major players economically and militarily, and within a decade I believe Brazil will be a significant power in both spheres. Europe remains an economic force but has mostly neutered itself militarily, with the exception of the UK and portions of the French military. Europe isn't quite a Japan yet but that is the way you are going.....

So from a US-centric strategic view 'important but no longer central' is all too accurate a description of Europe's strategic position.