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April 13, 2010 |  12 comments |  Print  Your Opinion  

Tobias  Fella

Fight Not Flight for US-EU Strategic Dialogue

Tobias Fella: Atlanticists hoped that Barack Obama would be the savior of transatlantic relations, but dashed expectations have strained the relationship. The US and the EU should not be afraid to engage one another to save the alliance. The partners need to promptly engage in a strategic dialogue on transatlantic issues including trade and the Middle East.

Today's transatlantic relationship is the result of efforts to win the Cold War and to foster the creation of a united and peaceful Europe. But alliances aren't built on memories; they are built on common interests, aims and threat perceptions.

However, the past few years have been shaped by growing dissent between the US and Europe. The allies disagreed on how to deal with Iraq, the best way to engage terrorism and were for a long time unable to find a consensus on burden sharing in Afghanistan. There have been conflicts in the economic arena as well. There were transatlantic trade disputes, both commercial and strategic, tendencies towards offensive regionalism and growing competition on monetary and fiscal questions.

Some aspects of the transatlantic relationship have changed since Obama took office. The US has taken a more multilateral foreign policy approach, based on the principles of liberal hegemony and the recognition of mutual dependence on questions of security and economy, all of the things Europe asked for during the terms of the Bush administration. Despite all of these positive developments, so far both actors have avoided a purposeful strategic dialogue to find areas of shared interests and common aims. It seems they fear this would bring even more tensions to the surface, instead of leading to a new grand bargain between them.

This is surprising when looking at the challenges both sides of the Atlantic are faced with: growing economic competition with emerging powers, international terrorism, global warming and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction require a common approach by Europe and the US. So the current mutual ‘don't rock the boat'-mentality is very short-sighted and ultimately unsustainable.

Now is the time for Washington and Brussels to conduct a strategic dialogue: The Lisbon treaty empowered the EU to take on a greater role in international affairs, NATO is developing its new strategic concept and various transatlantic trade disputes desperately call for a solution.

The dialogue should not only involve governmental actors, but economists, academics and think tankers. To encourage broader strategic thinking, a wise men group should be appointed. The experts should publicly hold the EU and US responsible to act upon their references. Naturally conflicts will arise, but despite all the dangers of disunity and frictions, a serious debate can already have a reengaging and recommitting effect.

An initiative for deepening the transatlantic market, a goal both actors have failed to achieve, should be made a top priority. A new study for the European Commission shows the potential extra economic growth available if the remaining non-tariff trade barriers were eliminated between the US and the EU. That step could add 0.8 percent to EU GDP by 2018 and 0.3 percent to US GDP over the same period. American exports would rise by 6.1 percent and European exports by 2.1 percent. Accordingly, the OECD estimates the current inefficiencies and barriers in transatlantic trade are preventing the creation of nearly one million new jobs.

To use the advantages of deep institutional market integration, Washington and Brussels should works towards a common free trade area. In a time of a global economic power shift, a transatlantic FTA would help Washington and Brussels to retain or even increase their weight within the World Trade Organization. This would create incentives for further trading powers to support enhanced market liberalization.

Obama's presidency has raised unrealistic expectations in Europe. As a result, many Europeans were irritated about the role of the US the Copenhagen Concerence, the departed closure of Guantánamo prison and the surge in Afghanistan. Some of the doubts might be well founded, but Europeans have to keep in mind that Obama is not just a global leader, but first and foremost president of and for America.

For its part, Washington views the EU as not having responded to Obama's bid for closer cooperation. From stabilizing Iraq, preventing Pakistan from becoming a failed state, re-launching the Middle East peace process and reforming NATO, the World Bank or the IMF, Brussels has appeared to have little capabilities or even ideas to offer. An upcoming transatlantic strategic dialogue has to and will change this dynamic.

Tobias Fella studies international relations at Ludwig-Maximillians University in Munich.

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Greg Randolph Lawson

April 13, 2010

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The notion of enhanced free trade in the transatlantic market makes sense. Economic growth is something that both Americans and Europeans can agree on as being our mutual strategic interests, especially with the the shifting of economic power eastwards towards Asia.

However, we should not think that this will lead to a renewed closeness that anyhwere near approximates the past. Without the fear of the Soviet Union, there is simply not enough confluence of strategic interests to renew the relationship in the way many might hope.

Both sides should be content accepting a security alliance that still operates through NATO and deals with intra-European military challenges and Russian revanchism as well as a strong embracing of economic trade.

Outside of that, the question of cooperation on other issues is going to be decided on a case by case basis, probably dictated more by parochial national interests than anything else.

This means hopes of enhanced cooperation on global warming and for joint action in other regions of the world , especially in the Middle East, should be seen for what they are: laregly illusions.
 
Cora Nicole Weiss

April 13, 2010

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Interesting comment. Yes, the cold war powers are no longer Westerner's unifying enemy, but is it also possible that some other seeminly universal threat, perhaps global warming or fundementalist terrorisim, could create a 'confluence of strategic interests?' Is it possible that our 21st century blights may be a rallying point for greater, multi-national cooperation? I don't believe that the cold war was necessarily a more powerful rallying point then global issues like rising waters and terrorist threats.
 
Greg Randolph Lawson

April 13, 2010

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@Cora

The problem is defining those issues where there can be agreement. During the Cold War, the Soviet nuclear arsenal and the prospects of a potential (even if unlikely) invasion of western Europe were considered existential and forced Europe to play along under the security umbrella offered by the United States.

Terrorism is unlikely to be existential. It may be very, very bad, especially if a WMD is used, but no terrorist group would be capable of outright conquest, something the Soviet Union was capable of, again, absent U.S. security guarantees.

As for global warming, there is actually a lot of skepticism as to its impact. I am aware that many think such skepticism is a sign that one is entirely unenlightened, however, whether the evidence supports or not the conclusions regarding "rising waters", it is still a rather abstract notion to many. A Soviet nuclear strike or tanks rolling through the Fulda Gap was easy to envision. Rising water trends over decades is not so easy to grasp, even if people are capable of conceptualizing it in theory.

In other words, these threats are not truly seen as "universal" even if political rhetoric tries to ascibe to them universality.

Consequently, I do not think these issues will have the galvanizing effect you appear to believe they can have. I could well be wrong, but, thus far, they certainly have not and absent a catastrophe, I maintain they will not.

This,again, does not mean there will be no cooperation, merely that it will be more ad hoc and less institutionalized, except through NATO for European defense and win-win economic gains vis a vis Asia.
 
Member deleted

April 16, 2010

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I wonder if anybody in West has taken seriously Russia's proposals for drafting a new security arrangement to govern relations between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community. President Medvedev indicated first in June 2008 and many times later that the new pact should attempt to build on the 1975 Helsinki Final Act. If final product, under Medvedev’s scenario, would be a “Helsinki Plus” agreement that created new guidelines for inter-state relations. On 2009, Medvedev also offered another glimpse of his designs for”new European security architecture”. Citing well known recent conflicts the Russian president said existing security organizations are no longer capable of guaranteeing Europe’s security. He also repeated Russia’s call for a new security pact to replace NATO as a Cold War relic.

Russia wants a legally binding pact enshrining arms control, a commitment not to use force, and guarantees that no single state or group of states can take a dominant role in the continent’s security. The basic principles in the treaty are compliance with international law, respect of sovereignty, control of arsenals, renunciation of force and resolution of conflicts through peaceful talks. One may remember that Medvedev proposed Summer 2009 also new energy charter (“Conceptual Approach to the New Legal Framework for Energy Cooperation”) which e.g, besides gas or oil, contains a list of all other energy products, including nuclear fuel, electricity, coal, and all the other goods traded by in the energy sector.

NATO’s job, as British Secretary-General Lord Ismay famously put it in 1967, was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” Since that and also since 1975 Helsinki Final Act the map of Europe has changed a lot, the same occurred to problems which today are more complicated and having various global aspects and local variants. From my point of view the international organizations managing security, economical and energy issues have not necessary developed with same scale – some updated structure could be suitable. Two last decades have been giving many bad practices which – if copied – can make Europe with surrounding regions more insecure. I think that now it is time at least discuss about lessons learned, develop and copy better practices. Will the outcome be a new structure or updated old one shall be seen but even more important is to start process itself.

More about issue e.g. in post “Russia’s new Security and Energy Initiatives”
http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2009/04/26/russia%e2%80%99s-new-secu...
 
Cora Nicole Weiss

April 19, 2010

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Very interesting comment. The quotation from as British Secretary-General Ismay tells us a lot about the political climate of the Cold War and shows us how drastically outdated this non-collaborative point of view is. A sustained peace and a functional check on arms development is clearly only possible with a combined and coordinated effort on the part of the international community.
Tags: | proliferation | Russia | NATO |
 
Olaf  Theiler

April 20, 2010

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Just for historic accuracy: According to my personal research during my PhD project several years ago, the quotation from Lord Ismay on NATO's purpose (“to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down) does not come from 1967 but from 1950 instead, which makes much more sense since Germany was not a member then. Unfortunately there seems to be no written evidence for this quotation, although it is still to good not to be used. But it is important to note that by 1955 with the membership of West-Germany the atmosphere in NATO changed: Instead of “keeping Germany down” they changed the meaning to “keep Germany controlled”. This form of control was useful for all NATO members and even beyond. It helped to overcome the hostility and mistrust that several nations still felt so shortly after the end of the Second World War. The final proof for this was that in 1990, the then still existing Soviet Union finally accepted the continued presence of the unified Germany in NATO because they preferred Germany to be controlled in NATO than to be a uncontrolled power in the middle of Europe.
 
Member deleted

April 21, 2010

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Thanks Olaf for clarifying the year. Here one quotation with a bit more new slogan from Germany:

"Keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down" lautete seit ihrer Gründung ein immer wieder gerne zitiertes Gründungsväter-Rational für die Existenz der Nordatlantischen Allianz. In Madrid (1997, AR) könnte den USA ein wesentlicher Schritt gelungen sein, diese Formel auf eine neue NATO umzuschreiben: "Keep the Russians out, the French down and the Americans in the lead" - so könnte das neuformulierte Rational lauten.(http://www.friedenskooperative.de/ff/ff97/5-13.htm)
 
Olaf  Theiler

April 21, 2010

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Ari, thanks for this interesting quotation. Although, I would suggest a very different and much simpler new rationale for NATO: Keep the US engaged in NATO and EU security.
Since the Bush administration decided to ignore NATO and their European allies in 2001, the thought of US leaving NATO became and remained the most dangerous possibility for NATO's future and for European security policy that is still basically depended on US engagment and leadership, even if we don't like to face that reality.
 
Unregistered User

April 21, 2010

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Perhaps the restructuring of NATO would be a great idea for certain concerns, but NATO is at its best as it stands in its continued peacekeeping and peacemaking efforts. The EU will respond to President Obama 's Administration when , and only when, it has closely evaluated all the possibile outcomes strengthening the peaceful collaboration it has maintained with the United States for some time now. It is very apparent that the relationship between Chancellor Merkel and President Obama is going well as these two exceptional leaders continue to communicate with each other on the prioritization of so many pressing global concerns.
 
Cora Nicole Weiss

April 22, 2010

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@Olaf Theiler Thanks for your important correction! What an interesting quotation. So important to place it in its proper context.
 
John  Hadjisky

April 22, 2010

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Over at Atlantic Review, we liked the NATO quote as well, but we wondered if it needed to be updated. So Joerg organized a contest to see who could come up with the best serious or humorous replacement quote.

You can see what we found at:

http://atlanticreview.org/archives/769-Bumper-Stickers-Slogans-What...
 
Darrell Calvin Brown

August 1, 2010

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So, only the men are wise? The cart had better slow down before it gets ahead of the horse and stops going anywhere. The stage is being prepared to be reset. Let us be ready to invest.
 

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