On
November 3, 2009, Chancellor Angela Merkel became the first German head of government
to address both houses of the US Congress since Konrad Adenauer. The USA
expects Germany to reciprocate this honor in the form of sharing the burden of
international troop deployment, more state investments to revitalize the world
economy, and a willingness to impose stronger sanctions on Iran. Conversely,
due to domestic politics, Merkel's call for climate change legislation will
fall on largely deaf ears in Washington.
It is
no accident that the invitation was offered by the "Madame Speaker" of the
House of Representatives. Nancy Pelosi embodies
the expectations of Americans. She will expect a return for this gesture,
namely that we help shoulder the load of American international commitments.
Pelosi not only speaks for the chamber of Congress that is held more
accountable for direct outcomes by the American people, but she also represents
the pro-trade union wing of the Democratic party. There is a broad skepticism
among US citizens regarding their government's international commitment. The tendency
towards domestic naval-gazing is particularly pronounced among Democratic
voters. The President's union constituency is not interested in wars on the
other end of the world, rather they want their government to direct money
towards social purposes and job creation.
Domestic
considerations will also make it difficult for the US President to take the lead
on international climate protection as the Chancellor and other Europeans have
demanded. The preoccupation with
economic pressures and the political attention on competing government projects
like healthcare reform make it difficult for the US President to push through
the necessary environmental legislation. Thus, the US will reject the all too
ambitious CO2 goals at the preliminary meetings for the follow-up agreement to
the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen.
Political
priorities for Obama also rest in the domestic sphere. He was not elected
because people regarded him as the best foreign policymaker or commander-in-chief
of the US armed forces. The American people would have thought John McCain more
suitable to that task. In the USA, 45 million people live without healthcare
and another 30 million are under insured. With rising unemployment, social and
economic insecurity also increases. These issues are relevant to a considerable
portion of Obama's electorate - for whom he must achieve concrete results in
order to avoid a political slap in the face in next year's mid-term elections.
Furthermore,
the management of the finance, economic, and infrastructure problems in the
United States will cost a lot of money that is not available because of the
desolate budget situation left over by George W. Bush. Budget experts, as well
as fiscally conservative Democrats, are already warning that the deficit is out
of control. Therefore, Americans expect Germany to increase its stimulus
programs in order to rejuvenate the world economy. Moreover, a stronger German
commitment could reduce the financial and military burden of the United States:
by pledging more money for the stabilization of Pakistan or the reconstruction
of Iraq, or deploying more soldiers and police with less restriction to secure
the situation in the Afghanistan theater. Finally, Washington expects Berlin to
support sharper sanctions on Iran to prevent their gaining nuclear weapons.
Thus
far American demands for increased deployment have been held back out of regard
for our electoral season. Yet, now the grace period is over - and we will have
to deliver. Driven by the expectations of the American people, elected
officials in Congress and President Obama will demand the frequently sought "effective
multilateralism" from Berlin.
Merkel
thanked the USA not least for its help in German reunification and providing
security during the Cold War. In return, the US now expects a more committed
role from Germany, as suggested by Obama in his Berlin speech calling for a
transfer of the "burden of global responsibility."
In addition, we will experience a
fierce debate concerning the future of NATO. For the US, the alliance is a
means of saddling the beneficiaries with the costs of deployment and to prevent
free-riders. With his Berlin speech, Obama already made it clear that he does
not see the North Atlantic Alliance as being prepared for the requirements of
the new century. Should Europe not participate, we will forfeit any position to
object if the US turns to Asian states to strengthen its position. In matters concerning
NATO, Europeans continue to think within the structures of the Cold War, while
the position of the US has evolved.
In the
future Germany's ideas and concepts for international order will have even less
sway in America should Chancellor Merkel not fulfill US expectations. Berlin is
only in demand if the German government is prepared to share the lead. If not,
we must be content with a position on the sidelines - at which point we will be
unable to complain about American "unilateralism."
Dr. Josef Braml has been
the Editor-in-Chief of the "Jahrbuch Internationale Politik" at the German
Council on Foreign Relations (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik
e.V), Berlin since October 2006. He is also a Resident Fellow in the Research
Program USA/Transatlantic Relations.
Translated by Stefan
Ducich, Atlantic Community Editorial Staff
Related Material from Atlantic Community:
- Ian Davis on Strengthening the Non-Aggression Norm within NATO
- Iyad Dakka on Can America's Eagle Fly Again?
- Vilborg Ása Guðjónsdóttir on The Future of Transatlantic Relations
- 19
November 8, 2009
Hans Reuther-Fix
and Germany is prepared and eager, as it seems, to become the 51st State of the Union of America and I forgot, a member of Nafta.
This would mean for the Atlantic Think Tank, Mission accomplished, as the
rest of Europe would hopefully follow, since England is already there.
The author is quite right, that it would not come without a price,
It is not only, that the Opel deal, before the election in Germany, was
definitely beneficiary for Ms. Merkel's reelection, which was also very much
of interest to the US, it is also that Germany will continue to arm Israel, which after delivery of 5-6 new submarines, will now be entitled to two new state-
of-the art frgates from Germany
Comtemplating slightly "outside the box", with all the nuclear weapons
stored in Germany and Israel, besides the USA, one should not overlook, that the "mea culpa" triangle has actually closed.
USA ( Balfour Declaration )----- Israel ( Amsterdam Sanctions )--- Germany
( Holocaust ). ------ Gaza-------
As just said, it is thinking " outside the box".-----
HRF