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Russo-European relations have reached an impasse. While we started to see a consensus of sorts develop amongst EU member states at the recent EU-Russia summit, there was no definitive agreement. Chancellor Merkel stands out as uniquely well-placed to push through this gridlock.

She is the only leader in the EU that can simultaneously engage the other EU members (in particular those to the East); credibly stand up to President Putin on the basis of a toughened policy platform; and silence the overly optimistic perspective towards Russia entertained by significant factions within the Social Democratic Party, her coalition partner.

Before Merkel can make a credible attempt at forging a new EU consensus, she will have to fight a domestic battle with her SPD foreign minister. Steinmeier is a Schroeder confidant who Ms. Merkel inherited as part of the Faustian “grand bargain” that the close election in 2005 forced her party into. However, as the German economy picks up steam, she is increasingly liberated politically to confront some of her more awkward partners at home, especially now that she has admirably scored the easy foreign policy “wins” such as repairing the German-American relationship.

At the same time, Merkel is nearing the end of her presidency of the European Union and can shed some of the more prosaic duties incumbent to the position and step out from under the weight of trying to fix the European Constitution. In addition, the ascension of the openly Russo-skeptic Nicolas Sarkozy to the Elysée deprives Mr. Putin of another European ally and further enables Europe to assume a more robust stance towards Russia.

Merkel has managed to resist President Putin’s charms. Such behavior was warmly welcomed by the eastern EU states, although they feel that Merkel should try for an even clearer break with the cozy Russo-German relationship of the Schroeder era. Merkel has a good track record vis-à-vis the new EU members. In her first major EU Summit in December 2005, she was hailed for her abilities in brokering a budget deal. As a bridge between East and West, she might attempt to reassure the smaller states and curb their sometimes shrill rhetoric by convincing their leaders that their concerns are being heard.

Thus far, Chancellor Merkel has allowed the Russian portfolio to be managed out of the Foreign Ministry—now is the moment to draw them back to the Chancellery. Once this is in hand, she can manage the Eastern member states’ concerns, bearing in mind the fact that they are members of the Union and must be heard. Until some sort of internal coherence is established, it is difficult to imagine how the EU can convince Putin’s Russia that it is time to be constructive. Finally, she must draw a firmer line with Russia, obliging them to recognize that their relationship with Europe is symbiotic rather than a zero-sum game.

Bastian Giegerich (left) and Raffaello Pantucci (right) work at the International Institute for Strategic Studies , London.

Related Material:

• Alexander Graf Lambsdorff on The Russia Conundrum: EU and US Should Cooperate with the ‘Imitation Democracy’
• Alexander Rahr on why the EU Should Bring Russia Closer
• CSIS report: Russian Energy Pressure Fails to Unite Europe

May 30, 2007

Philipp Rock, Holger Haibach, MdB, Silver Contributor (34)

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While I agree that Germany has to intensify its relations with Russia I don't think that it would be a good idea to take an overly aggressive stance. It should be in the best interest of Germany, and also the EU, to improve its relations with Russia by concentrating on issues of common interest. Russia's support is needed to resolve the conflict over the status of Kosovo and also the nuclear dispute with Iran. Russia can not be bullied into making concessions on these and other issues but Germany and the EU can surely find compromises that are acceptable for all sides. It is obvious that under the leadership of Putin Russia has taken a course that we Europeans can not approve of but we have to take the situation as it is and enter into a productive dialogue with Putin. Putin wants to be constructive but the Europeans want him to be submissive.

May 30, 2007

Raffaello Pantucci, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Silver Contributor (58)

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The path that both Helmut and Philipp appear to be advocating is one that allows Russia to continue to bulldoze over Europe as it has in the past. Where has that gotten relations? I will grant you that an wantonly bullish and aggressive posture will achieve little, but a firm, common European line will show Russia that she must work with Europe, not around her, or by manipulating her. Thus far, Europe's inability to hold ranks has only been to Russia's advantage and, as we mentioned in our piece, Russia treats international affairs as a zero-sum game. This has meant that Europe has conceded and Russia has been pressured on nothing, or changed nothing.

As to the comment that "Putin wants to be constructive" - while i believe that the Russians are not seeking some sort of conflict, they certainly want any resolution to be on their terms rather than anyone else's. I have yet to see them take any compromise and stop. Was it constructive to shut off gas to Belarus and Ukraine? And what about their actions in Georgia?

Finally, as to the comment that the EU needs "avoid any demands on Russia which might be offensive to the Kremlin." As Chancellor Merkel has said to President Bush "friends should be honest with each other."

May 30, 2007

Michael John Williams, Rothermere American Institute - University of Oxford, Silver Contributor (62)

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Raff and Bastian make some very good points and I can only agree with them. While it is not in the interest of the transatlantic community to box Russia in as Philipp and Helmut point out, this does not mean Europe should not be a bit more assertive vis-a-vis Russia. Germany is well placed to do a good cop/bad cop routine using the new French government as a foil, or it could lead a more cohesive European approach. This is also a prime opportunity to push the Americans to actually develop a Russia policy, which dear leader Bush abdicated in favour of 'reading Putin's soul'. Europe should be very worried about stability in Russia decides to play energy politics again this winter - now is the best time to make headway on the issue.

May 31, 2007

Philipp Rock, Holger Haibach, MdB, Silver Contributor (34)

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Raffaello has raised the most important point in this debate, namely that there is no common position of the 27 EU members regarding relations with Russia. The discussions over such issues as missile defense and the baltic gas pipeline have shown that fundamental differences exist within the EU over how to handle Russia. I think Ms Merkel has done a good job in balancing the diverging opinions but with such huge differences she can't formulate a comprehensive common EU policy towards Russia. However if Russia continues to bully small EU members in Eastern Europe this might change public opinion in Europe and force EU leaders to take a common position.

Tags: | Russia | Merkel | EU-Russian relations |

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