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Pakistan has weak political leadership and institutions, a large army which overshadows civilian government and siphons precious national resources for its own bloated ambitions, an economy in crisis, an unjust federal dispensation which exacerbates tensions between Islamabad and the provinces, and huge disparities in wealth between a kleptocratic ruling elite and the tens of millions of ordinary Pakistanis who live in poverty and political and social marginalization.

In a security context dominated by the war on terror and the war in Afghanistan, US policy since 2001 has focused on its own short-term objectives in Pakistan to the detriment of democracy and economic and social progress in Pakistan. There are, however, clear indications in the newly articulated "AfPak" strategy, that under President Obama the US now understands that the Pakistani people hold the key not only to the defeat of terrorism and extremism in Pakistan, but also to the long-term stability and security of the country. The shift in US emphasis towards a better balance of military and non-military assistance, the support for democratic governance, civil society, and sustainable development, is an important recognition that the real battle is for the hearts and minds of ordinary Pakistanis.

However the Obama Administration also recognizes that the state dominance of Pakistan's army and ruling elite is such that meaningful progress also requires recognition that the Pakistan state has legitimate security concerns in the region and that these concerns need to be addressed, through regional fora, if Pakistan is to be helped towards normalization. Taken together these moves by the Obama Administration provide arguably the most opportune context for the EU to make a meaningful contribution to Pakistan's security and stability for a generation.

With respect to addressing Pakistan's internal economic, social and political challenges the EU has a huge amount to contribute. Some of the key areas in which EU assistance - financial and technical - could make the most immediate and long-lasting impacts if properly implemented are:

• Policing: the empowerment and training of Pakistani police forces, both in terms of their operational effectiveness and in terms of their responsiveness and  accountability to ordinary Pakistanis as representatives of the state;
• Party political evolution: the development of Pakistan's pluralist political parties - national and provincial - which need assistance to move from being the creatures of elite families to becoming the vehicles for the aspirations of ordinary Pakistanis;
• Institutional political evolution: the strengthening and development of Pakistan's political institutions and of the checks and balances within the political system at the national and provincial level;
• Justice: the empowerment of justice systems to deliver prompt, transparent and accountable justice for ordinary Pakistanis;
• Civil society: the support and development of Pakistan's increasingly vibrant, but weak and under-funded, civil society;
• Grassroots economic development: direct investment in small-scale grassroots economic projects which bypass corrupt bureaucracies.

Perhaps even more important, over the longer-term, than any of these is the need for:

• Education: investment to secure educational opportunity and a modern curricula, nationally-determined, for Pakistani children particularly in the more deprived regions. The cornerstone of this - for all Pakistani children - being the teaching of English as a means to empower people within the country - where the elite monopolize resources through English -  and build a meritocratic middle-class which will be necessary to ensure Pakistan's future in the context of globalization;

With respect to the regional security concerns of the Pakistan state, the EU has a hugely important opportunity to support and facilitate regional and bilateral fora in many areas of concern to Pakistan, and to facilitate dialogue, understanding and partnerships particularly between Pakistan and Afghanistan and India. These should include not only specific security initiatives, such as on arms control, regional security frameworks, and confidence-building measures, but also areas which impact security such as migration and refugee issues, irredentist issues, economic co-operation, educational exchanges, and people-to-people contacts.

Pakistan stands on the edge of a precipice and will need a great deal of international assistance and goodwill if it is not only to survive as a political entity but reverse its decline and emerge as the exemplar of a democratic, liberal and plural Islamic state its founders intended it to be. The EU has a moment of great opportunity to provide meaningful economic and technical assistance to Pakistan in those areas which will most profoundly affect both the short and long-term security and stability of the country. There is no more pressing security challenge at present for the EU than securing the future of Pakistan.

Dr. Shaun R Gregory is the Director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at the University of Bradford, UK. His research has focussed on South Asia since 1999 with a particular emphasis on nuclear issues and on international terrorism, internal security, and defence issues. Dr. Gregory has centred his research on Pakistan and specifically on the nexus between nuclear weapons, extremism and terrorism, and the stability and cohesion of the state in Pakistan.

Related Materials from the Atlantic Community:

• Alessandra Radicati: Tough Road Ahead for Post Civil War Sri Lanka
• Urs Schrade: Hard Road Ahead to Save Pakistan From Collapse
• Tanvir Orakzai: Fall Out Over Afghan War Brings Lingering Tension in Pakistan to Boil
  

June 10, 2009

Marek Swierczynski, journalist at TVN24, Diamond Contributor (1102)

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As the local environment was proved to be almost inpenetrable for any western forces in terms of geography and culture the aim of militarily conquest and control of the AfPak area seems to be an illusion. But leaving is no option either. Sealing off the area - impossilbe too. Pressure on al-Qaeda cells and Taleban militants must be sustained and Pakistani authorities must become aware that if they do not deal with that, the West will not hesitate to use force, be it within the UN charter or not (as it is today). On the other hand, Islamabad must be given any assistance possible in order not to let the situation slip out of its hands, even if these hands are not those who the West favours most. The West will not change the attitudes of more than 160 million Pakistanis. The West will not wipe out all the radical madrassas. What the West could do is try to change the attitudes of those Pakistani migrants, who live in Britain, France or Germany and through that minimize the terrorist threat.

June 11, 2009

Urs Schrade, University of Heidelberg, Silver Contributor (36)

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According to Mr Gregory's article the most important tasks for the EU in order to help Pakistan reverse its state decline are: support democratic governance, institution building, civil society, and sustainable development in the country. I very much agree with Mr Gregory's ideas as I also believe that the key to long-term stability in Pakistan lies in the hand of Pakistan's population. Obviously, all the above mentioned measures are to be seen as the right steps to win „the hearts and minds of ordinary Pakistanis“.

Nevertheless, I doubt that the above measures will fully unfold their desired effect without intensely focusing on an issue glossed over somewhat in Mr Gregory's article: actively supporting Pakistan's security forces in maintaining internal security. Internal security, in my eyes, is a crucial precondition for the efficient implementation of the measures suggested by Mr Gregory.

Let's take for example the city of Peshawar where at least 18 people where killed by a suicide bomb attack on a hotel this Tuesday. Security in Peshawar has worsened dramatically in the last year. Many of those who can afford to move have taken their families to Islamabad or beyond - abandoning a city now becoming consumed by fear and violence. Likewise Lahore faces a massive security problem. There, in the end of May a suicide bombing of the police emergency response headquarters killed at least 23 people. Just about two month before six policemen and a driver where killed by a raid on the police training centre near the city and several cricketers where injured by an attack on the Sri Lanka cricket team. Reportedly, Lahore shows a similar scenario like Peshawar: people who have the possibility flee from town.

For me it's hard to imagine that grassroots economic development or the support of Pakistan's civil society can be effective as long as people are leaving their homes due to a lack of security. Likewise sound evolution of political parties and institutions is probably more likely in a safe environment. Hence, the first big task for external actors like the EU is to help Pakistan by any means in solving its immediate security problem. There can be no doubt, that this help must be limited in time and that for long- and even mid-term security and stability in Pakistan measures have to be taken, focus on a stabilization from „inside“. However, we should not forget that democratic governance, institution building, sustainable development and the built up of civil society all require a certain minimum of security.

Probably, the EU should follow some sort of a simultaneous „two-track strategy“. That is to say, on the one hand giving strong and immediate aid to Pakistan's security forces in order to create a sufficiently save environment as soon as possible. On the other hand implementing measures as those suggested by Mr Gregory in order to promote mid- and long-term stability carried from inside - by the Pakistani people.

June 11, 2009

Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen, Atlantic Initiative, Silver Contributor (35)

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I very much agree with Dr. Gregory arguments as Pakistan is truly the greatest security challenge the West is facing. But who has understood that yet? Surely, our professional diplomats and the foreign policy community are keenly working and thinking about solution for AfPak - but we need to generate greater awareness/support among the broader public as all the above measures will cost a lot of public money - which is getting scarcer.

We will see significant budget cuts after the trillions of Dollars and Euros we spent on stabilising the financial system and bailing out banks and companies. As the first voices in Europe already call for a reduction in development aid competition for public money will increase and people will ask: Why should my (the taxpayer's) money be spend on education in Pakistan when my children's school needs more teachers and a new roof?

Along with policy solutions like the ones described above a public diplomacy campaign in the US and Europe is needed to convince the Western public that without supporting Pakistan significantly the radicalism and hate brewed there will come to us - along with sophisticated weaponry and a dedication to kill. Of course, this is oversimplified but we need to break down the problems and speak clearly to make every citizen in the industrialised World understand what is at stake.

Atlantic-Community.org is happy to play its part in that education effort.

Tags: | Pakistan | public diplomacy |

August 18, 2010

addiel,university of karachi

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the article do reate to the reality on some points but some how the reality is far more complexed as it seems, one important thing is the west has failed to realised the ground realities of the country as it is moving under a ever challenging phase after its exsistance one can not win the war against terror without involving the general people will in it without taking them on board this war is far from over in years to come the west with its good gesture has to win the hearts and minds of the people to change the people anti west outlook to make them aware of the fact that this war is in benefit of pakistan owns will as no country has suffer more then pakistan itself.

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