When the Presidential and vice-Presidential hopefuls talk
foreign policy, they look every which way --- towards the Middle East, Russia,
Europe, Asia or Africa, but they largely ignore our own backyard.
In the next decades of the 21st Century, our policymakers
will need different priorities. When looking for our closest allies, we may
well need to look away from current entanglements in unfortunate, far away
places and towards a stronger relationship with countries --- notably Canada
--- with whom we share so much.
This requires some understanding of where we are today. The
breathless talk of an "end of history" and inevitable democratization that
accompanied the fall of the Soviet Union should be swept aside by now. Instead
we need to understand both a greater diversity in national systems and,
increasingly, a trend towards ever more authoritarian regimes not only in
Russia and China but throughout the developing world as well.
The influence of authoritarian countries, particularly China, in the developing world is also
growing. Many see the so-called "Beijing Consensus" --- placing economic
development ahead of even modest democratization --- as more appealing than the
inherent inefficiencies of popular control, not to mention American hectoring
and self-righteousness.
Even our closest historic allies in Europe are increasingly
asserting their own notions of what is best for them. With a rapidly aging,
even declining population, these countries do not share the basic American need
for sustained, vibrant economic growth over the next few decades. Instead they
likely will continue to embrace a conscious policy of slow growth and
stability. This will not change even when the hated George Bush is gone --- despite
a possible flurry of post-election Obamamania.
How to respond to these trends? Flex our muscles? Been
there, done that and what has it gotten us?
At the same time, none of this means that we should accept
the fashionable notion of American decline. Although obscured by the current
financial crisis, our unique demographic, economic, and even political
strengths remain very much intact. An aging Europe, the favored candidate for
preeminence among many east coast policy wonks --- does not share these assets.
China, India and Russia and other rising powers of today
also face enormous demographic and economic challenges. All have large
populations of poor people once you leave the westernized cores. Russia's
economy is overly dependent on commodities; China and Russia face demographic
declines equal or even worse than the EU.
So where can we find our best allies? We look to those
countries who share our demographic vitality, our fecundity and common values
--- Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Like the United States these countries are also "countries
of aspiration." They remain enormously attractive to both skilled and unskilled
immigrants, including those from Europe and Asia. If there's a brain drain in
the world, it's mostly to the US, Canada and Australia.
Bolstering ties with Canada represents by far the greatest
opportunity. High energy costs mean proximity matters more than ever. Canadian
and American firms need to share adjacent markets. This will strengthen even
more the strongest bilateral trade relationship on the planet.
Perhaps even more important are family ties. Canada remains
the largest source of visitors to the United States and vice-versa. Some
800,000 Canadians have settled permanently in the United States; 200,000
Americans have moved north to Canada. Many have dual citizenship. (A quick
disclaimer: my wife is a native of Quebec and a dual citizen).
Building on these natural ties will take some psychological
changes in both countries. A strong alliance requires both a confident Canada and
a respectful America. Americans need to stop thinking of Canada as a kind of
northern icebox that we raid for resources when hungry. Canadians, for their
part, should no longer regard themselves as America's poor cousins but as equal
partners with enormous resources, both human and material.
Of course, none of
this likely will excite the policy elites in Washington. They are already
atwitter with ideas for how the President should address our relations with
Pakistan, Russia, China or other troublesome distant place. It would be
refreshing instead if perhaps Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain, on taking office, might
first consider to build stronger relations with a neighbor who shares not only
values and family ties but also this vast, rich and blessed continent.
Joel Kotkin is executive editor of
NewGeography.com as well as a presidential fellow and director of the Urban
Futures Program at Chapman University. He has written seven books including the
best-selling "The City: A Global History."
Related materials from the Atlantic Community:
- Mark Brzezinski & Lanny A. Breuer: Repairing America's Image Abroad Will Take Time
- Anna Wojnilko: The Shift in Global Power Calls for More Burden Sharing
- Francisco J. Ruiz: US, EU, Russia: Not a Zero-Sum Game
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