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On May 7th, 2008, the 42-year-old jurist Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated as the new President of the Russian Federation. The same day, Medvedev proposed Putin as Russia's Prime Minister, and the State Duma duly confirmed the proposal the following day. Whatever these moves may, in the end, entail for the exact redistribution of power in Moscow, they imply that Medvedev will become Russia's official leader. Medvedev's rise means that Russia might have a serious chance to embark anew on a course of political liberalization and democratization. It will provide a welcome opportunity for Western governments and organizations to re-establish trustful relations with Moscow. It, however, also implies that Moscow politics will become ideological again: Medvedev's office may become the focal point of liberal and pro-Western trends, in Russia, while another institution could become the power basis of Moscow's anti-Western nationalists.

In the future, the West will not only have to consider that the formally highest representative of Russia can be counted as a supporter of the catalogue of basic Western values such as political pluralism, division of power, checks and balances etc. The West will also have to develop a strategy for how to behave with regard to the coming re-ideologization of high politics, and power struggles in Moscow. Medvedev's rise and the emergence of a "pro-Western tower" in the state apparatus will not, by itself, entail that Moscow transforms herself into an ally of the EU or NATO. Rather, Russia's domestic politics will again become confrontational in as far as the rise of Putin's young successor with a circle of similarly minded allies in the government around him will mobilize and unite the large anti-Western constituency in various sectors of the Russian elite. We may soon observe the emergence of another, different "tower" in the Russian state apparatus around which Moscow's various anti-Western politicians, publicists and bureaucrats will unite. One fears that the power-hungry cynics around Putin might, in the face of a re-democratization of Russia "from above," go for an alliance with Russia's numerous ultra-nationalist groups and intellectuals like Sergei Kurginian, Aleksandr Dugin and Aleksandr Prokhanov.

While Medvedev's rise as such is good news for Russian-Western relations, it makes a forecast of Russia's future internal development and foreign policies more complicated. The West will have to choose a prudent course of supporting possible pro-democratic changes initiated by Medvedev while not undermining his authority in Russia. Russian public opinion and, especially, Moscow's elite discourse has become anti-Western and particularly anti-American to a degree where demonstrative support by the West weakens rather than strengthens the position of a public politician. Russia's future looks again more promising, yet also more unpredictable than before.

[The full text of this comment is attached below. Earlier versions appeared on the web sites of Russia Profile, 17 December 2007, History News Network, 19 December 2007, and OpEdNews, 6 May 2008.]

May 9, 2008

Marek Swierczynski, journalist at TVN24, Diamond Contributor (1102)

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Oooops, was the Tolkien-based comparison really what the Author had in mind? If so, one has now to figure out who of the two will play Sauron's and who Saruman's role. For me, clearly it is Mr Putin who has "the ring to rule them all" for the time being and will keep a watchful eye on anything Mr Medvedev does. I heard Mr Putin as the new PM wants to appoint as many as 11 deputies, to make them busy with paperwork and administration. That would allow him to be who he is - the Almighty Tsar. But as the time will pass, Putin's role might become less relevant, especially if Mr Medvedev decides to improve relations with the West and seriously work in human right area. The question is - would that be desirable, because almost certainly that would cause instability in Russia and it seems what is feared most by the West.

Tags: | Tolkien | Putin | towers |

May 9, 2008

Andreas Umland, National University of "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", Platinum Contributor (281)

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Thanks for the comment. "The Tolkien-based comparison" has, by now, been for years a metaphor in both Western and Russian analyses of politics under Putin, and is not my invention. It has been used before mainy times for identifying certain patronage networks in the Kremlin and White House, on the Moskva. My point is that Russia's future "towers" will not any longer be defined primarilly by patron-client relationships, but by ideology. This allusion would be understood by those familiar with the recent discussion of elite conflicts in Moscow.

Tags: | Russia | Putin | Medvedev | politics | democratization |

May 15, 2008

Ilyas M. Mohsin, PPP, Platinum Contributor (296)

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Putin has emerged successful in all these years since Yeltsin left. He took over a Russia which was in shambles. Using stong-arm tactics, wel-known and even admired by the Russians generally, he appears to have pulled his country out of the morass inflicting it. As nothing succeeds like success, he should be considered taller than his size.
we should not forget that the drama in Moscow was planned by Putin and executed by him to retain real power. In that context guys like Medvedev appear to be only helpers despite their claim to fame. Creating bugbears out of the prevailing situation may be unrealistic.
The statuq quo is likely to prevail; more so while the US battles with the Iraqi quagmire as well as the Afghanistan conundrum wherein the 'occupation' has killed more than a million people besides incapacitating thrice as much. Such blatant disregard of human life in occupied countries wpuld boost Russian fortunes like that of China/ India, as the latter is being tipped as US' military surrogate in Asia.

September 15, 2008

mgc

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Just follow the money. You know that power resides where it piles up. Ideology is a smokescreen for the masses. You want to know who $auron is? What rules us all?

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