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Current Russian primacy in Central Asia has influenced its relations with China towards the powerful partnership that it constitutes today. We have also seen Russian leverage affect the Western powers' ability to take action in Syria, NATO intervention in Libya almost blocked, and Ahmedinijad's Iran and Hezbollah assisted with maintaining influence within the Middle East.

Russia is using Central Asia’s hydrocarbon resources as part of its strategy to re-establish itself once again on the world stage, a dangerous and unsettling prospect for the Western powers at a time when energy security is still uncertain. Therefore, in order to gauge the extent of imbalance in the Central Asian region, my thesis looks at the Western Powers’ current and proposed presence in the region, and assesses the extent to which the Western Powers can counterbalance Russian primacy.

Tabish Shah is a PhD Candidate at the University of Warwick in the Department of Politics & International Studies. Tabish's work is funded by the Economic & Social Research Council; Tabish has also been a consultant within the UK Government's counter-terrorism strategy PREVENT and has held secondments as a Specialist at the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Select Committee and International Development Committee.

July 12, 2012

Dmitry Stefanovich, The Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) , Silver Contributor (65)

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I truly hope that such inciting russophobic "theses" remain marginal, and only a minority of specialists in UK Government and Parliament share such extremistic views that contribute greatly to world instability, being based on not even "Cold War" visions, but "Great Game" era. "Russia, a country almost dictatorial in itself". Such statements prevent any possible cooperation.

July 12, 2012

Tabish Shah, University of Warwick, Gold Contributor (113)

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Dear Dmitry,

The behaviour of the Russian government generates and encourages instability all by itself (albeit in tandem with other actors); in Syria, Libya, its internal affairs and social problems, policy within in its own backyard, Georgia; and so on.

If you wish to comment further on my articles I expect a sound argument with evidence to explain your points, not simply a rhetoric-filled reaction because you don't agree, particularly if you would like a response. For you to have credibility this evidence should also be multifaceted. In short: please implement the basics of sound research, argumentation, and policy in your responses, and then you will be taken seriously and engaged with.

As for Russophobic; I appreciate the paranoia and inward-looking attitudes that permeate countries without a free-press and a administration, so despite the clumsy and unsophisticated nature of your reply, I will tell you that I have an appreciation for Russian art and literature and have used it in my own academic work on democratic transition. To reiterate, if cooperation is what you genuinely want to develop, be less naive in your responses not jump to uninformed rhetoric and propaganda because you disagree; all that does is lend weight to negative stereotypes and helps make it less likely.

Thanks,

Tabish

July 20, 2012

Gökhan Tekir, Bilkent University, Gold Contributor (101)

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Dear Tabish,
It is quite good article which analyzes the Russian's ambition to use energy as an important foreign policy tool. Russia is keen to preserve energy supply routes to the West in order to settle its old super-power status again. Thus, it tries to dominate Central Asia to prevent an independent supply route to the West. I also agree that the Western powers fell short in establishing contact with Central Asian countries independent of Russia.
I further think that the USA is implicitly giving consent the Russian domination over Central Asia instead of a possible Chinese domination because the USA considers China as a bigger threat than Russia.
Nevertheless, the Arab spring may present opportunities to the EU countries. Qatari gas may be an alternative to the Russian gas so the EU countries may set themselves free from Russian energy domination. I think that Russia's stubborness in Syrian case emanates from the fear of losing Syria to a Western friendly regime so the supply of Qatari gas will be extremely easy to the West.
I congratulate you again for this nice work,
Gökhan

July 24, 2012

Tabish Shah, University of Warwick, Gold Contributor (113)

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Dear Gokhan,

Thank you; you have also raised some interesting points about Qatar - particularly in light of BP stating they no longer consider Nabucco economically viable. They would only consider the smaller project Nabucco West as an outlet from their Shah Deniz field whilst the European Commission still press for the full-scale version of Nabucco - without BP who could fill the shortfall? Due to the nuclear issue Iran looks an unlikely possibility and Turkmenistan are prioritising pipelines to China; so yes you make a very good point there, without doubt the strategic importance of Syria is further reinforced.
Tabish

July 24, 2012

Tabish Shah, University of Warwick, Gold Contributor (113)

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This also emphasises the importance of pursuing renewable energy sources through projects in the mediterranean

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