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Major Geopolitical Consequencs of Mumbai Attacks

Editorial, Stratfor | November 27, 2008

Assuming Islamist militant groups planned the Mumbai attacks, India’s government will have little choice but to blame Pakistan and would loose domestic credibility if it does not retaliate. ++ This will have massive geopolitical consequences for the US. ++ Unless Pakistan takes immediate steps to suppress Islamist extremists, India and the US will threaten action. ++ Such pressure could cause massive destabilization in Pakistan, not only affecting NATO operations in Afghanistan but also amplifying the danger of its nuclear capabilities.

 

 
 
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Mon, Feb 9th 2009, 11:28

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It takes two to tango. Always. Pakistan as a state that is akin to having pulled a trigger at its own temple and threatening to shoot itself - is not news. India, its neighbour, as state that threatens to do the same act and also pull the trigger at other's temples: is a slow emerging news. Its pathology that its universities best exemplify, including its political class. India's avowed eunuchism as a state has not yet turned it into a semi-christian state. A necessary mention since many in the region belabour under such false pretensions and such medieval views of 'global politics'. Pakistan can easily psoit itself as amajor buyer of international arms. Would that make Pakistan palatable? Similarly, India is unpalatable. The present world economic crises would someday find nearly all of its fingers pointing at the sub-continent and more specifically India.
What makes such forces palatable in India but avowedly unpalatable in Pakistan? Would it be possible that Pakistan maintains a distinction between such forces, while in India it has been blurred? A necessary question, since Pakistan can easily float a major arms-purchase tender(s) and yes, given its Afghanistan crises and its old role as an avowed ally of the US of A - well?
No. one does not foresee any major geo-political upheaval from 26/11, like one did not see any upheaval after India's near record of similar 'terrorist' attacks. But the possible scenario of the blurring of lines between such pathologies and the India state - may cause upheavals. One still has a sizeable Indian diaspora that is capable of creating enough mischief - via their networkings as the Pan-National Hindutva movement that threatens to turn into a pan-Indian movement. Of course, not upheavals in geo-political sense - except the threat of the inherent collapse of South Asia as a region.
But then we have Srilanka that comes across a near possible and a constructive ally in the near future. Especially so after its successful forays in ridding the SriLankan soil of terrorists. Terrorists that have been trained by indian intelligence, according to all available intelligence reports. They have been bleeding the state of SriLanka for too long. However, SriLanka does not posit itself as a threat or as a victim. One barely hears about SriLanka and its trials and tribulations with having a pathological neighbourhood bully.
Much more than India or Pakistan do - except as a harbinger of disaster in their shared pathologies. Pathological illness is not and has nothing to do with 'religious' affiliations. That only leaves India and Pakistan with their nuclear arsenal as the larger threat - in their suicide missions. The obvious route to the curing of the now-emerging South Asian threat to world security: get their nukes out and shut down. Simple.
 

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