Russia is Out Scheming Again
Dmitry Shlapentokh, Indiana University | March 12, 2009
While a US victory in Afghanistan would benefit Russia in terms of controlling the spread of Islamists in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Russia needs to be prepared for potential failure. ++ Given that the potential of a Russian led military force is unlikely, the back up plan is to do it the “Chechnya” way; establish a “sphere of influence” in North Afghanistan given the ethnic majorities of Uzbeks and Tajiks. ++ If Russia could establish a “credible buffer” in Afghanistan it might even be able to lure President Karzai into the Russian embrace.
Sun, Mar 15th 2009, 08:30
Ilyas M. Mohsin, PPP, Platinum Contributor (296)
Russia may be scheming but its ploy in Grozney has let loose a storm of extremism in her backyard. The Chechens may be no match for Russian power but they, like the Pashtuns, do not give up. Theorizing may be easy but those of us who are seeing the unravelling of events in this sensitive region can clearly see the the dangerous spread of a fight-back.
The 'Islamists' used to be a microscopic minority in these Muslim countirestill mid-80s. As the Soviet Union erred to send troops to Afghanistan, the US supported the Afghan Mujahideen which ended in the defeat/withdrawal of the foreign forces. The US was aiming at, as per Brezinski of Carter Adminstration, turning Afghanistan in to Soviet Union' 'Vietnam', The CIA played a vital role in organizing the Mujahideen from all over the world. Soviet Union broke up but as the US walked away from the mess, the 'Islamists' mobilized their sympathisers against the "free world" which, generally, remains exploitative. Gradually the misries of people under occupation like Palestinians, Chechens, Kashmiris etc attracted the focus of such forces. So it is seen as a fight against the oppression launched by the powerful against the weak. As atrocities mount in these affected areas, average Muslims also start developing resentment aginst the status quo.
The US, despite its liberalism, democracy till George w destoyed it which Obama is trying to revive, appears to have been held a hostage by Israel for known reasons. Russia/India are also much more powerful than their victims. Hence the fight is on. As the weaker party can't fight a war, it resorts to terrorism. History is full of examples whereby all nationalist movements, including the one in US against the British, resorted to such tactics. If they win then Mandela becomes a hero; otherwise life goes on as it suits all.
Division of Afghanistan in to south/north to fend off Russia is a far-fetched idea. The Afghans do not shy away from a fight, as history proves, and they have repeated it since 2001. US could have won their goodwill but systemic failures and macho-tactics of the occupation-forces etc destroyed that prospect. This happened because George W himself and most of his cronies lived in a fool' paradise. No wonder they have done the greatest harm to US' image/credibility/power.
Obama has been talking of 'fairness' and his initial steps inspire some hope. US and others have to do justice to all the suffering people to off-set the advance of Islamists. That can be the basis of a new settlement for peace and prosperity of the Globe which will restore US' goodwill considerably.