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Nikolay Shevchenko: The Syrian crisis marks the ultimate test for the responsibility to protect norm. The inability of the UN Security Council to reach a timely consensus does not only harm Syrians, but weakens the concept that shields populations from crimes against humanity. Instead of criticizing the vetoing of resolutions, Western powers must persuade Russia and China to propose their own visions of the norm.
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Editorial Team: With summer already over, at least in the northern hemisphere, atlantic-community.org takes a look at some of the many issues that have been written by our community of 7,000 members over the summer break.
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Foreign Affairs: Managing Editor Jonathan Tepperman interviews Professor Alex Cooley on the geopolitical role of Central Asia, and how outside powers - Russia, China, and the United States - are competing for influence in the region, as the British and Russian empires did a century ago.
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Foreign Affairs: Editor Gideon Rose interviews Columbia University professor Andrew Nathan on China’s global perspective and the current state of US-China relations. Nathan discusses US government policy towards Beijing and how transitions in Chinese leadership will affect the country’s assertiveness.
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Justin Lau: The unprecedented disunity within ASEAN can be attributed to both internal and external factors. With rising tensions between China and the Philippines, and neighboring states picking one side or the other, the emerging US-Chinese rivalry for regional influence further threatens the institutional cohesion and economic collaboration of ASEAN.
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Editorial Team: Atlantic-community.org has received numerous outstanding articles from its community of over 7,000 members in the past several years. Our members have contributed to the think tank’s debates, theme weeks, and policy workshop competitions. A recurring discussion in our community revolved around a rising China and the challenges it poses to the West.
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Adam Charles Lenton: Russia and China have cemented a strong bilateral relationship in recent years, presenting a united stance on the international stage. But there are tensions between them and strains on their relationship which should make for interesting developments, especially in Central Asia.
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Sami Kronenfeld: Representatives from the US, Europe, Russia, and China are meeting with their Iranian counterparts to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The talks can only be successful if Europe and the US reach an agreement with Russia and China on what to do if Iran does not follow international agreements.
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Editorial Team: The NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy has responded to your questions and policy recommendations! In this second installment, he discusses NATO’s stance in Asia and how new powers like China and India impact the Alliance’s goals.
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Editorial Team: We’re excited to reveal the results of our latest members’ poll and inform you of what our priorities will be in 2012. As well as displaying your decisions on the most important issues of 2012, we’re also announcing our first theme week and what we plan to do with the topics you requested throughout the rest of the year.
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Asle Toje: It now seems clear that the economic crisis that started in 2008 is both deeper and more lasting than first thought. While leaders threat about the crisis bursting into the real economy, this specter is manageable compared with the dangers we will face if the economic crisis turns into a full-blown systemic crisis.
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Editorial Team: Elections and transfers of power look set to dominate world events in 2012. Will Chinese leadership adopt a more aggressive stance? Will Egypt develop into an Islamist regime? Here is a brief look at these and other events likely to shape the new year. Feel free to share any events you think will also be important.
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Editorial Team: We currently focus on how to step up bi-regional economic integration between the EU and the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Our goal is to improve the effectiveness of the EU-LAC “Strategic Partnership” looking forward to the 2012 Summit in Santiago.
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Jiang Shixue: China can support the Strategic Partnership between Europe and Latin America, creating a trilateral relationship through a joint investment fund which would provide needed capital to Europe and support China’s “going global” strategy. But for such a triangulation to be successful, the EU must overcome its fear of China.
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Franco Pedroni: Germany, like its European partners, is supposed to stand for human rights, freedom, and dignity. But in its trade relationships with a Chinese system that exploits its people and uses them to profit on the world market, it caves to economic pressures and betrays its values.
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Memo 36: The European Union must reach out to Asian partners and become a credible player on issues other than trade. A strong EU-Asia policy can contribute to stability and advance Europe’s overall political, economic, and security interests.
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Estephanie Henaro: China’s economic outgrowth is about more than commercial relationships. It has used its influence on the Australian economy, traditionally a cornerstone of US-led regional stability, to consolidate its access to key energy supplies and assert its own hegemonic structure in the Pacific.
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Jordan Becker: The US focus on Asia is an affirmation of the progress made over the past 65 years in Europe. Rather than worrying about abandonment, Europe should now seek to reinvest in its own independent regional security and strive to be a strong partner in the global projection of transatlantic power.
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Editorial Team: Delegations from the US, Russia, China, and other global players will meet with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at joint ASEAN-East Asia summits beginning November 17. Neither the EU nor any member states will be there. Now, as America refocuses its attention on the Pacific, we take a look at how the EU must face its transatlantic and Asian partnerships in the “Pacific Century.”
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Editorial Team: Ahead of the East Asia and ASEAN Summits, our next theme week will examine European foreign policy in the Pacific in light of Hillary Clinton’s recent outline of US policy goals in the region. You tell us: what role should Europe play in America’s Pacific Century?
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Jason Naselli: China’s new environmental regulations on mineral mining are seen by many as a ploy to inflict economic costs on competitors. But they can also be an avenue to open up dialogue between China and the West on environmental policy and our approach to global resource problems.
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Vijeta Rattani: Climate change is a broad concept of which global warning is just one facet. NGOs should take the lead in informing the world about the complex reality of climate change and move away from focusing exclusively on carbon emissions.
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Ben John Baxter: Despite being a significant provider of aid and assistance to the developing world, China is not a part of the international aid decision-making process. Given its tremendous support for infrastructure projects in Africa, China deserves more recognition from the West for its development efforts.
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Dmitri A Titoff: Without an agreement on a common defense policy, European states are letting market forces play a larger role in shaping their defense industries. Open markets could increase the risk of proliferation, but would also lower arms prices and improve military procurement across European borders.
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Kishore Mahbubani: It has taken Europe’s leaders some time to adjust to Asia’s rise, and the implications of that for EU policymaking. Unrest in the Middle East points to some lessons the Europe could learn from Asia. Kishore Mahbubani remembers Brussels’ condescensions and counsels a fresh EU approach.
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Johnny West: The West has bemoaned the lack of democracy in the Arab world for decades. Now, as the slaughter continues in Syria, it is time for the West to back its values with action. The recent US ban on purchasing Syrian oil has a good chance of debilitating the Assad regime. Europe must do the same.
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Memo 33: To remain effective in a multi-polar world, NATO should strengthen its collaborative ties with Asia. The Alliance must strive to make China more partner than rival, develop a multilateral plan for stability in Central Asia and Afghanistan, and strengthen existing regional partnerships.
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Oleg Khlopov: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) demonstrates the way regional powers can collaborate in order to bring about economic development and become security partners in Central Asia. Nowadays the SCO members are facing two main problems: the enlargement of the organization and their attitude to the role of the US in Central Asia.
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Matthew Hulbert & Christian Brutsch: Berlin’s decision to appease voters and phase out nuclear power looks more problematic as energy giants from Germany and Russia merge. The EU is now even more dependent on Russian energy than before, just as Russia turns to Asian markets. As a result, the EU could be left in the cold.
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Dmitri A Titoff: When the SCO emerged at the turn of the century, Western observers worried that its key founders, Russia and China, plotted an anti-NATO bloc. It turns out, however, that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s primary objective is to keep the status-quo in Eurasia.
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NATO Review: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is changing the way it works with its partners. Ambassador Dirk Brengelmann, Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy, explains what these changes mean to both sides.
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Felix F. Seidler: Despite financial constraints, the transatlantic partners must tackle the 21st century’s challenges together. However, the allies will be unable to pursue their interests on the global commons without new partners. Therefore, NATO should push cooperation with global partners who share our values.
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Nico Segers: The military rise of China is raising concerns over provocative naval pursuits in the East Chinese, South Chinese and adjacent seas. Escalations about disputed areas with Vietnam and the Philippines puts stress on wider Sino-American relationships and may block further military-to-military dialogue.
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Eoin Michael Heaney : The Communist Party ruling structure of China means that it could probably be categorized as a medium sized kingdom, rather than a traditional nation state in the Western sense. The transatlantic partners should take note of this difference, and realize that within this supposedly monolithic entity, there are also countless local kingdoms.
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Editorial Team: We would like to thank you for voting in our recent survey on transatlantic priorities. Three key issues which Atlantic Community members would like to focus on in the year ahead are China, the debt threat and climate change. These results as well as your suggestions will guide our thematic focus in 2011.
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Editorial Team: EU countries mired in debt are getting help from an unlikely source: China. The ascendant superpower is buying up large amounts of European bonds and investing heavily in euro zone countries. Moreover, there is talk of a reversal of the long standing EU arms embargo on China. Is this all a coincidence?
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Editorial Team: We invite you to tell us which three topics you think should top the agenda for the transatlantic partners in 2011. Your preferences will determine atlantic-community.org’s focus in the New Year.
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Stephen Minas: The events which surrounded the recent Shanghai Expo showed why China does not have much soft power and why the West, broadly defined, still has it in spades. China’s reaction to the awarding of a Nobel Prize to one of its dissidents is a clear example of this.
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Eric Maurice Fung: If the US Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act becomes a law, trade war between China and the US will be inevitable. Thus, USA’s economic reengagement with China is the most viable solution for the progress of both the countries.
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May-Britt Ulrike Stumbaum: The EU cooperates with China on a wide range of issues, despite having an insufficient understanding of Beijing’s strategic goals. As Chinese influence around the world grows, the EU needs to start thinking about China strategically.
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Paul-Robert Lookman: The US sees China as its main challenger. To safeguard its position, the US is encircling China militarily and trying to control energy and mineral sources. With military dominance no longer translating in political advantage, the US must develop “soft power” and settle for a multipolar world.
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Editorial Team: The Chinese and American press have expressed new concern about the relationship between the two superpowers. Let’s weigh in: Is China overestimating its power and on the road to war with the United States? Or will economic interdependence ensure that China and the United States stay on a peaceful path?
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Daniel Fiott: The West is troubled by Chinese business activities on the African continent, perceiving Chinese firms as satellites of the central state.This paper uses the case study of Kenya to compare the economic and developmental activities of the EU and China in order to address some common misperceptions.
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Interview with Jeff Jarvis: The internet is putting power in the hands of global citizens. Large international organizations are missing opportunities to harness that power to improve relations with their constituents. Citizens need to continue to use this technology to create new “social assets”.
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Brahma Chellaney: Never before have China, India, and Japan been powerful at the same time, yet now they make up the strategic trio that is central to the region’s future. Asia houses the fastest growing markets, fastest-rising military expenditures, and the most volatile hot spots. Thus, these main three actors must find a way to reconcile their interests in Asia.
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Reese Alan Neader: Burma is fully dependent on Chinese aid without any requirement to improve human rights practices. Since Washington ignored tyrannical regimes, China has been allowed to move in unchecked. Thus, by re-engaging Burma, the Obama administration is putting pressure on China to conform to international norms.
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Daniel Fiott: China’s quest for natural resources will lead to the strengthening of its navy and possible confrontation with the US. Energy independence can decrease the chances of possible tensions in the world’s oceans and seas.
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Jerome Grossman: Obama’s new strategy underscored the United States’ primary objectives, but failed to shed light on some rather dubious dealings between the US, the CIA, and key players in Afghanistan and China. If transparency is the name of the game, answers must be given on key issues of America’s international relationships.
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M Brzezinski and M Fung: The success of President Obama’s inaugural visit to China depends on his approach. “Constructive engagement” between Washington and Beijing can break the mold of Sino-US relations if a series of “deliverables” can be agreed upon regarding Pakistan, Afghanistan, and informal military cooperation.
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Gordon Cinco: China’s policy towards its ethnic nationalities is unsustainable and inhumane. The international community must exert more pressure on China to abide by its own constitution and respect the human rights of its different ethnic groups. Great power always comes with great responsibility.
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Marc Saxer: To use of the window of opportunity for establishing effective global governance, Europeans should accept that not all countries are willing to cede their sovereignty, but should work to increase the representation of emerging powers in multilateral structures.
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Joshua Posaner: China is often considered to play the role of provocateur globally. Beijing’s alternative model of development coupled with its ability to frustrate the Western powers on issues such as human rights and climate change leave its ability to engage in no question. Ten years after Gerald Segal’s initial argument a fresh evaluation is needed.
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Adam Chapnick: As the international community struggles to respond effectively to the missile tests by the North Korean government, critics have blamed the United Nations Security Council for failing to deter aggression and preserve world peace. That blame is misplaced. In this case, responsibility for controlling North Korea falls squarely on China.
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Parag Khanna: President Obama’s administration may need to look outside of its traditional set of allies in order to secure stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the surrounding regions. There will be a cost attached to this cooperation, but the cost of failure may be higher.
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Patrick Douglass: This paper will analyze how China’s bureaucratic institutions have evolved during the reform era to integrate more points of view, the actors who wield the greatest influence in this new system, and the ways in which public opinion will likely influence Chinese foreign policy in the future.
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Editorial Team: The new Democrat administration and Europe’s positive welcome of President Obama promise to revitalize the transatlantic relationship. We are inviting you to tell us which three topics you think the US and Europe should prioritize. Your preferences will determine our focus in 2009.
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Christiane Doerner: China has arrived in Namibia and with it a new form of colonialism has unfolded. Its effect on Namibia’s domestic industry as well as its employment rate is discernibly negative.
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From the Editorial Team: “The received wisdom is that President Bush has been a foreign policy disaster, and that America is threatened by the rise of Asia. Both claims are wrong — Bush has successfully rolled back jihadism, and the US will benefit from Asian growth.”
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Matthew Yglesias: US relationships with EU countries have been marred not only by our disastrous military engagements but also by a lack of actual diplomacy from the Bush administration. A return to the hallmarks of a liberal society coupled with the simple measure of common courtesy would go a long way.
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Sonja Davidovic: Unable to satisfy the energy demand of its heavy industry, which is further augmented by the rising consumption of the emerging middle class, China had to turn to international markets in search for oil and gas assets.
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Wolfgang Nowak: America is no longer up to shouldering the world’s crises. But who is going to take its place? And how do the new global powers imagine the future world order? Foresight, a project of the Alfred Herrhausen Society, asks thinkers and policy makers from the emerging and existing powers for their thoughts and proposals.
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Anna Wojnilko: Institutions for global governance must become more balanced; the United States and the European Union cannot continue to carry the onus of global decision-making on their own. The emerging economic powers must be given more say in multilateral organizations and also take on more international responsibility.
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Joseph S. Nye: If the US wants to remain powerful, strong ties to the world’s emerging powers are crucial. Improved relations between the US and India could provide the basis for China’s international integration.
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Philip Gordon: China does not want to jeopardize its energy deals with Tehran which are essential for its economic development. But this is a short-sighted perspective which overlooks the risks the Iranian nuclear program represents for China itself. It is time for China to think strategically about Iran.
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Anna Wojnilko: Changing economic and political realities are forcing the G8 to rethink its goals, mandate, and membership. The debate on the shape of a potential G8 reform divides the political world. Should the G8 be enlarged to include new major international players or contracted to ensure effectiveness? We invite you to vote.
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XXX: This article has been removed from the website in accordance with the author’s request.
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Michael T. Klare: When the Cold War ended, it was generally assumed that the US would henceforth enjoy unchallenged preponderance. But today, military superiority no longer constitutes the decisive determinant of global paramountcy: energy has acquired unexpectedly vast significance.
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Gaelle Christine Fisher: As it becomes - supposedly - obvious that China might one day “rule the world,” it’s urgent we take a look at the facts behind the fears, and reassess our expectations.
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Natalia Ruban : Those who support a boycott of the Beijing Olympics overlook that limiting relations with China to the question of Tibet will not improve the human rights situation. The worsening of Western-Chinese relations endangers economic growth, and progress on global issues such as nuclear non-proliferation, Darfur and climate change.
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Susan Aaronson: Much more than a marriage of convenience, America and other industrialized nations, should examine their trade policies to see how it might encourage and ultimately form a coherent union with human rights abroad.
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Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger: Values and interests should not be opposed. The fact that the West and China follow different regulatory political concepts should not prevent cooperation. We should be humble enough to deal with undemocratic states without fearing to be untrue to our convictions.
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Jackson Janes: The common threats which Europe and the United States are facing call for immediate collaborative action. Given the interconnectedness of the world today, it is important to apply the lessons learned through transatlantic successes to other regions as well.
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CBS: In an exclusive interview with Lesley Stahl for “60 Minutes,” the head of China’s new sovereign wealth fund, Gao Xiqing, pledges more transparency to allay fears that China will try to use its vast investment ability to exert economic or political control in the United States.
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Florian Kuhne: China is caught in the question how to behave in preparation of the Olympic Games in summer.
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Parag Khanna: The new world order won’t include American hegemony. “Second world” nations will be the geopolitical battlefield, as the US fights for a balance with China and the EU.
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Robert Zoellick: The president of the World Bank expresses his concern regarding the German focus on bilateral aid programs in an interview with Rüdiger Lentz, head of the Deutsche Welle studio in Washington and executive director USA of the Atlantic Initiative.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Katharina Gnath: I laud the ongoing Heiligendamm Process as an important step in involving emerging countries in global economic governance. Five months after the summit, there are still challenges to be met, and the two-year Process is only the first stage in increasing cooperation with China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico.
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Eckart von Klaeden: India has become a new global player. The broadening and deepening of relations with Western powers such as Germany and the United States in recent years has been welcomed in Berlin and Washington.
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Henrik Schmiegelow: I warn that Asia is building pillars to support a future international order. Reacting to the functional integration and regional community-building led by ASEAN and the big three—China, Japan, and India—will be “the West’s greatest challenge.”
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Joseph S. Nye: We cannot overlook Japan as a global powerhouse. How its people and government respond to emerging China will be “one of the great questions for this century.”
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Global Must Read Articles
Asia has many overlapping organizations, but none have the depth required for the complex area. ++ Pax Americana has traditionally filled the vacuum and enabled Asian nations’ economic ascendency, but this becomes less tenable with each passing year as China rises. ++ The region must develop a strong institutional framework to deal not only with economic issues but also security ones. ++ Kevin
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As China becomes more assertive, its neighbors are looking for US support. ++ Obama announced that US foreign-policy will “pivot” toward Asia in 2011, however there is no escaping the importance of the Middle East and Central Asia. ++ There is a growing al-Qaeda presence to the south of Libya, while Syria is embroiled in full-on civil war. ++ Although Romney blames Obama for the mess in the
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The United States and China are ‘superficial friends’, whereby each exaggerates their bilateral friendship in order to boost future cooperation as well as current ties. ++ But as Chinese power rises, there will be more competition as the US focuses on Asia and hopes to increase its domination in the Western Pacific. ++ This enhanced competition could lead to a Cold War between China and the
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The United States’ new endeavor in Asia comes across as a collection of incoherent contradictions. ++ The US wishes closer ties with China at the same time presidential candidates castigate Chinese trade policies. ++ The US claims the American ‘pivot’ isn’t aimed at China even as the US forges defense ties ringing the Chinese mainland. ++ The US is trying to play honest broker between China and
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Merkel has taken bold initiatives at home and overseas. ++ At home, she opposed Greek’s exit from the eurozone, thereby preserving the unity of the union. ++ Abroad, she represented not only Germany, but the EU in her visit to China where she signified the need for the Chinese government to utilize its markets and funds to purchase German and European bonds. ++ Merkel will now have to seek
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The analogue years are long over, as an increasing number of people across the globe have access to the information that they need from digital media. ++ It is becoming more difficult for authoritarian regimes to mis/disinform the public. ++ The recent demonstrations in Hong Kong is a clear case in point, as protestors objected a government-funded booklet titled, “The China Model.” ++ The booklet
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Despite the global economic shift to Asia, America’s focus for some time has been elsewhere. ++ Critical issues are coming to a point. ++ For example, there are competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. ++ China’s rise is at the root of such troubles. ++ China sees itself as a new ‘Middle Kingdom’ allowed to treat neighbors like vassal states. ++ The best solution is for the US and
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China’s initial stance on the Arab Spring was grounded in Mao Zedong’s five principles of co-existence: advocate stability, support state sovereignty and favor a return to normalcy. ++ From opposing Libyan intervention to abstaining in its resolution and then returning to non-interference in Syria, China’s stance on intrastate conflicts is wobbly. ++ Beijing’s behavior can be
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China is locked in territorial disputes with its neighbors. ++ China is quarreling with Japan over the Senkaku Islands and with the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal, both of which are far outside of China’s territorial waters. ++ China is dangerously close to declaring the entire South China Sea as its own. ++ Increasing Chinese military activity frightens nearby countries. ++ Unless it
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The leaders of China, South Korea and Japan agreed to launch talks to lay down the foundations for a trilateral free-trade agreement (FTA). ++ Together the economies currently constitute 20% of global economic output and are very likely to surpass the EU’s 28% share of total world GDP with the FTA. ++ However, tensions with North Korea pose the greatest threat to continued economic
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Over the past few decades, China and Iran have developed a broad and deep partnership centered on China’s energy needs and Iran’s abundant resources as well as significant non-energy economic ties, arms sales and defense cooperation, and geostrategic balancing against the United States. This partnership presents a unique challenge to U.S. interests and objectives. In particular, China’s policies
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Asia faces significant roadblocks to continued success. ++ The region must deal with territorial disputes, historical rivalries, and competition over resources. ++ Asia has no proper security architecture. ++ While China is rising, the other Asian nations are rising as well and feel compelled by Chinese actions to work closer with the US. ++ Asia has also neglected comprehensive growth:
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The current global monetary system is insufficient to deal with today’s challenges. ++ Since the collapse of Bretton Woods, there has been a US dollar-led system, which in turns allows for less than optimal US financial policies. ++ Western plans like quantitative easing (QE) have produced excess liquidity. ++ Such schemes produce inflationary pressures and could reduce the national wealth of
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China’s ongoing process of găigé kāifàng (reform and opening up to the West) and the process of European integration are both paving way for a more economically fruitful future. ++ In an effort to overcome the Euro-crisis, China nearly doubled its direct investment in Europe. ++ Today, goods valued at $1.5bn are exchanged daily between both parties. ++ As European
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America’s trade deficit with China mounted to a hefty US$295 billion in 2011. ++ China has been accused for allegedly manipulating its currency, thereby driving the US trade deficit. ++ In reality, however, China’s trade surpluses can be explained by an increase in Chinese household savings rates, an East Asian production sharing network revolving around China, and an increase in US
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South Asia has the potential to become a geopolitical and economic power, despite suffering from corruption, terrorism, poverty, poor infrastructure, insufficient healthcare, and major socio-economic inequalities. ++ The region is reaching a tipping point. ++ The three As, “Allah, Army and America”, are no longer defining Pakistan, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are moving toward a more
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China’s rise to the top is not preordained. ++ Its system is cracked along political, economic, and social lines. ++ The choosing of party leaders is not transparent. ++ China relies far too heavily on exports and investment in infrastructure and construction. ++ The system is highly unequal for workers at the bottom. ++ The country also faces a demographic problem of too many older people and
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The American ‘strategic pivot’ toward Asia has meant an increased focus on Southeast Asia. ++ Arrangements with Australia and Singapore are models for the new US posture. ++ Agreements are not based on permanent bases but rather joint exercises, rotations, and docking agreements. ++ The Philippines is key to US strategy in the region. ++ The main strategic concerns are counterbalancing China and
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MP John Hayes recently mentioned “resisting” Chinese influence in the South Pacific in a now leaked email. ++ China will deploy forces within the South Pacific as it is now a major corridor between South American and Australasian resource suppliers. ++ The strengthening of trilateral security ties between the US, NZ and Australia is designed to act as a regional counter-balance. ++ Increasingly
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US military budget cuts will hinder Obama’s new strategic focus on Asia. ++ American allies worry that a ‘leaner’ military will weaken US resolve in the region at the exact same time China is growing more assertive. ++ They also fear that US focus on Asia might not outlast the Obama presidency. ++ Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia have improved their military
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Beijing is dismissive of Western interests in the UN, prioritizing stability, economic benefit and non-interference. ++ Russia is Syria’s largest arms supplier and is attempting to demonstrate an alternative to Western “belligerence”. ++ Domestically, Putin fears bloodshed if public resistance does not subside when he returns to power. ++ The West can do little in Syria since Assad has been
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The impact of Western sanctions on Iran goes further than “market plays, fire sales and opportunism” for India and China. ++ The long term role Iran plays in their energy security policies has been missed. ++ Iran has sought to lock both countries into 25-year contracts for its oil. ++ Ideological positions may factor domestically in India and China but they are an outgrowth of energy interests.
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Latin America recovered strongly from the financial crisis of 2008-9, but now the region is feeling the pains of financial stress and dwindling global demand. Nevertheless, the major economies (the LAC-7: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Mexico, and Uruguay) in the region are still expected to perform decently despite a sluggish global economy.
In general, international investors are
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Dr. Frans-Paul van der Putten joined Atlantic Community in 2010. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme and at Clingendael Asia Studies. In this interview Dr. Frans-Paul van der Putten argues that Europeans should encourage the US to accept China’s equality, whereas the EU itself will not be capable of operating “as an equal to either the US or
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Kim Jong Un may suffer the same fate as Mao’s appointed successor in 1976, Hua Guofeng. ++ Mao and Kim Jong Il chose weak figures to succeed them for fear of being outshone in their lifetime. ++ North Korea’s leader has no independent power base or political experience but his anointment will protect his life in any coup d’etat. ++ Potential leaders who could shape future policy, as Deng Xiaoping
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China’s position over a possible Iran war is difficult as China has huge oil interests at stake. ++ China should not expect Russia to act on the issue and needs to act in accordance with its own interests. ++ If the US sanctions Chinese companies for trading with Iran then the Chinese government should take countermeasures. ++ Opposing an Iranian war need not lead to conflict between the US and
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America’s new focus on Asia means that New Zealand now has a place in US thinking ++ Afghanistan allowed NZ to build a valuable partnership with US, but NZ must now avoid the impression of being part of a US led coalition against China. ++ It is unlikely to provide military bases like Australia. ++ NZ will need to distance itself from the major players and work with other regional partners. ++
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Nina Hachigian is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, and co-author of The Next American Century: How the U.S. Can Thrive as Other Powers Rise.
Ms. Hachigian’s research interests include great power relationships, international institutions, the US-China relationship, and US foreign policy. She has published essays in Foreign Affairs, The Washington Quarterly,
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The US move towards Asia and away from the Middle East is a smart reorientation of policy. ++ More and more signs point to Asia being the center of world affairs in coming years, and the US is likely to get more return on its investment in Asian institutions than on its nation-building exercises in the Arab world. ++ That the US must have a strong presence in the Pacific seems to be one of the
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The emergence of China as a global power has fundamentally changed the geo-political landscape of Southeast Asia. China, US and Japan are making significant efforts to cooperate and work in tandem with ASEAN to “maintain peace, stability and prosperity in the region”. As this report by the Institue for Security and Development illustrates, Southeast Asia represents, in many ways, a battleground
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Despite cultivating the image of a “peaceful power”, Beijing’s response to the Libyan intervention was a missed opportunity for China to embrace the role of a global leader. ++ Instead of acting as a responsible member of the international community, China was preoccupied with protecting its own national interests in Libya. ++ China should have used its position as a non-NATO member of the UN
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The US-China relationship suffers from a mutual lack of trust. ++ A zero-sum view of the world sees any Chinese economic or military gains as “expansionary” at the expense of the West, just as Beijing is suspicious of a dysfunctional and “trigger-happy” US. ++ Despite decades of interaction, “increased interdependence has not led to better understandings”
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Japan’s prime minister resigned Friday, becoming the sixth Japanese leader to step down in the past five years. ++ Already beset with $200 billion in reconstruction costs after the terrible March earthquake, Tokyo also faces a looming demographic crisis and now a leadership vacuum with implications reaching across Asia. ++ As the world’s third largest economy, Japan must stop
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China has criticized the US for its debt problems, but Beijing’s own growth model is “fraught with difficulties”. ++ Since US and EU debt issues leave its export-driven economy vulnerable to market fluctuations, Beijing must bolster domestic demand. ++ It can do so by relocating industry to cheap-labor inland provinces and encouraging coastal regions to focus on service and
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The world economy now depends less on the leadership of the US and Europe, and more on the domestic consumption of large developing markets. ++ Western policymakers should be wary of new monetary stimulus, as a weaker dollar could raise inflation rates in the BRIC countries, slowing the growth of their domestic demand. ++ To support high consumption in emerging markets, Western leaders should
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Chinese and US interests in Afghanistan are unlikely to ever align perfectly, but both states have a stake in the stability of the region. ++ Beijing has long been wary of American troop presence near Chinese borders, and disagreements on topics ranging from Taiwan to human rights have led to a “structural ambivalence” between the two powers. ++ But cooperation, especially in the
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In a world of diverse threats and diffuse power, the US must turn to a policy of “restoration” to “rebalance the resources devoted to domestic challenges, as opposed to international ones, in favor of the former.” ++ While an active foreign policy should continue to invigorate alliances, the US must be more discriminating in its military interventions abroad. ++ America
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As the eurozone crisis groans on, a German-led Europe regains the stage as America’s most important foreign partner. ++ But this is more a matter of necessity than choice. “Openings to China and India have produced little. Relations with Russia, if improved, remain quixotic. And Obama now plays defense on the Middle East in this season of Arab revolt.” ++ Hoping to avoid a
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As China continues its meteoric rise and challenges US economic supremacy, both China’s growth and America’s shaky position tend to be overstated. ++ China’s massive infrastructure investments lack transparency and predictability, and could cause its economy to overheat and eventually collapse. ++ Any significant downturn would challenge the legitimacy of the longstanding Communist party
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Annette Heuser is executive director of the Bertelsmann Foundation Washington DC, a private, nonpartisan operating foundation, working to promote and strengthen transatlantic cooperation. Before launching the Bertelsman
Foundation in Washington DC, Ms. Heuser served in the corporate sector as Vice President of
International Relations at Bertelsmann AG in Guetersloh, Germany, and as the
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In China, the lack of free private media means that Chinese popular sentiment gets channelled into mushrooming online forums. ++ Jingoistic nationalism is often the order of the day, with the US, Japan and increasingly India being targets of abuse. ++ Although domestic criticism is censored, foreign censure is given free reign. ++ With 500 million internet users, the Chinese leadership is showing
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The United States has become obsessed with trying to figure out the direction North Korea will take after the succession. ++ Chinese opinions on the subject are in demand. ++ Officially, China does all in its might to support North Korea as a buffer state between itself and US-supported South Korea. ++ But inside the Chinese regime, there now appears to be dissent. ++ In unofficial talks, the
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President Obama’s visit to India validated what Pakistan has feared for some time - the emergence of stronger trade and strategic ties between Washington and Delhi.++ The Pakistani government and military are now considering adjusting their alliances, with China as a counter-balance. ++ President Zardari’s visit to China this week is a first step down that road. ++ US troop withdrawal from
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British PM David Cameron is leading one of the biggest ever trade delegations to China. ++ China has been slow in opening up its economy to the rest of the world lest it fall into the capitalist trap. ++ Mr. Cameron’s visit provides the West an opportunity to extend reassurances to Bejing that theWest needs it to succeed and that free institutions will guarantee China’s prosperity as
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China’s trade policy could force the renewables sector to its knees – an industry that has registered 230% growth in global investments since 2005 and generated $162 billion in investments last year alone. After all, this successful sector suffers from a crucial weakness: Rare earth elements are essential ingredients in the production of many key technologies such as specialized
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China’s gradual ascendence as a globl power has given rise to a new kind of debate among observers. ++ On one hand, China’s economic boom has awed the world while on the other, political fragility beholds uncertainies about its future. ++ The biggest issue of concern is the likelihood of a Sino-US rivalry exceeding conventional warfare to those in space and cyberspace. ++ If China wants to
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A number of states from Latin America and Asia have engaged in currency devaluations of late in order to help their export businesses. ++ Sanctions are also used for political purposes, as in the case of Iran. ++ Now a Chinese move sent “shivers around Asia and into the Pentagon,” as Beijing curtailed the sale of rare-materials to Japan’s high-tech industry. ++ This trade spate
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The recent row between China and Japan over the detention of a Chinese boat captain points out to “structural, strategic and institutional” tension in the relationship. ++ With China’s increasing ascendancy, the rift between the two countries is bound to widen in the years ahead. ++ The growing influence of the People’s Liberation Army in China’s strategic and foreign
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China is on its way to changing great power politics in the near future. ++ It has already superseded the US in becoming the biggest energy consumer in the world, a growing matter of concern for America. ++ It also seems that it will soon determine the type of energy system the world will depend upon in coming years. ++ China has already strengthened its ties with the energy rich countries. ++The
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A study by the Center for the Transformation of the German Armed Forces claims that peak oil production may well be reached this year. ++ This would mark the end of cheap oil. ++ The study warns that markets may fail and the global economic system become destabilized as a result. ++ The global oil market would no longer abide by economic laws but rather come under the sway of bilateral
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The growing US trade deficit with China should not be blamed on the exchange rate – de-linking the two currencies would have a minimal impact at best. ++ There are more effective ways for the US to benefit from China’s growth. ++ Obama’s goal of doubling American exports in five years is a step in the right direction. ++ With federal support, small, competitive firms could move into the
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China is America’s most important economic partner, but this relationship is dysfunctional and one-sided. ++ China has shown no progress in enforcing intellectual property rights in the software industry. ++ For every five applications running on PCs in China, four have been stolen. ++ This tolerated theft gives Chinese businesses an unfair advantage over their American counterparts. ++ “The
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New Delhi is becoming increasingly nervous about the close ties between Pakistan and China. ++ “Those in India who tend to view relations with Beijing as a zero-sum game with Islamabad” are concerned about joint plans to build a new rail link and rumors of cooperation on nuclear reactors. ++ While Pakistan and China are on good terms, the relationship is by no means trouble free. ++
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Bashing the Chinese has become a fad in the Western media lately, in particular since the recovery has been slow. ++ Proponents of the “China solo show” theory in the West claim that “China has been the biggest winner in the global financial crisis.” ++ However, their real aim “is in fact to press China to undertake more and more improper international
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China is looking to replace the U.S. as the hegemonic maritime power in Asia, which places additional stress on its relationship with Japan. ++ Secrecy surrounding the Chinese build-up could conceivably “spark an arms race” in the Pacific. ++ Though there is no doubt that China is the regional powerhouse, the opaque nature of its dealings in the Pacific will stoke fears of Chinese
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If China continues its present course, a security rivalry with the United States is inevitable. ++ China is currently traveling the same path the United States did on its march to world power: building its economy, expanding its naval capabilities, and excluding other great powers from its immediate neighborhood. ++ An open war between the United States and China is by no means inevitable, but
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Modern China in many respects finds itself in a similar position to Bismarck’s Germany. ++ After German unification, Bismarck, fearing the development of “hostile coalitions,” sought to preserve the new European balance of power through prudent diplomacy. ++ To avoid a similar fate as the Second Reich, China needs to “maintain tolerably amicable relations with the US and
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Recent reports that China is prepared to sign onto a tougher United States sanctions regime on Iran are overblown. ++ In reality, there are several compelling reasons why China will continue to “drag its feet” on Iran sanctions: to safeguard access to Iranian oil and gas; a sanguine attitude toward Iranian nuclear development; and a strategic desire to see the United States expend vast amounts
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“Given its growing profile, China must do far more to demonstrate its bona fides as a responsible global leader or risk undermining the system that has enabled its own miraculous rise.” ++ As a nation knocking on the door of superpower status, China can demonstrate its credibility and commitment to upholding the international system by combating nuclear proliferation, aligning its currency
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China’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $2.4 trillion in 2009, two-thirds of which are held in US dollars. ++ The dollar will likely not be dumped by China due to the probability of another economic collapse, which would then decrease Chinese exports. ++ The superpower is using its surplus to further its local and global political agenda by investing in raw materials and imported
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China’s merciless economic strategy exacerbates the global economic downturn and international tension. ++ This process of manipulating the currency markets and drowning the world with Chinese exports makes global economies defenceless. ++ Their “beggar-thy-neighbour” policy weakens nations´ fiscal efforts to recover from the crisis.++ We are on the brink of an open trade
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China’s undervalued currency and huge trade surplus threaten the world economy and risk engendering backlash from Europe and the US. ++ The situation is not as simple as many pundits would have us believe. ++ Undervaluation is the government’s main instrument to subsidize industrial growth, since its traditional options were taken off the table by the WTO. ++ China can either risk global
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The minute planning of Obama’s public meetings demonstrated that China still avoids “hemming” by outsiders at any cost. ++ China does not believe in the notion of an “international good” and only acts out of self-interest. ++ Beijing has been ignoring calls to revaluate the renminbi, as it has judged that it will cause a short-term disadvantage. ++ “The only way to nudge China towards common
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Asia faces dramatic economic change in the coming decades. In order to preserve economic growth, Asian markets need to abandon their excessive export orientation and reliance on foreign markets such as the American and European ones. As a result of the global financial crisis, demand for Asian products has fallen worldwide, in particular in the United States. Asia must find new arenas to market
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China’s impressive economic growth in recent years would not have been possible without the exploitation of raw materials in Africa. Up to now Beijing’s interests in Africa have been largely economic in nature. This, however, is bound to change as China’s increasingly political involvement in Sudan and Zambia shows. In order for the increasing Chinese presence in Africa not to produce detrimental
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With the Copenhagen UN climate summit coming up, the deadlock between the major developed and developing economic powers on how to divide up necessary greenhouse gas reductions, must be broken. ++ It is a common misconception that climate goals can only be met if China and India commit to immediate emissions reductions. ++ Early action by developed countries, together with developing countries’
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The key cause of the current financial crisis is a lack of balance in the world economy. ++ Whilst China has built up immense financial reserves, the US has seen its account deficit grow and grow on the back of infinitely increasing interest payments on its foreign debt. ++ The US needs to become more competitive thereby increasing public and private saving, whereas China should boost its
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Despite reforms Chinese politics is still conducted in a highly secretive manner. ++ The failure of senior government officials to explain decisions is continually undermining the power of the CCP and leaving Chinese politics “as if the world remains in the grips of a Cold War.” ++ Genuine competition within the party would help root out systemic corruption and the indecision apparent
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It seems the moment when China becomes the world’s largest economy is getting closer every day. ++ However, before China will finally become number one, the country has to find a way to manage its two biggest challenges: the democratic and economic transitions. ++ “Without a democratic mandate, the Communist party relies on rapid growth to keep the system stable, thus, somehow the country needs
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With 8 percent growth rate for the second quarter of 2009, China appears to be the miracle of the global economy in these times of recession. To boost domestic demand Beijing enacted a massive stimulus package at the end of 2008. In leaders eyes demand should be stimulated through job-creation measures and the easing of credit. However, appearances are deceiving. The aggressive endeavors by the
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The world’s two largest CO2 emitters, the US and China, are working hard to find a solution to climate change. In addition to drastically reducing oil imports and improving environmental protection measures, the two countries are heavily focusing on the development of clean technologies. However, instead of accepting the challenge on their own, the two states should instead cooperate with each
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At present, the power struggle in Kabul is reaching its apex. ++ After years of US hegemony, now, Russia, Iran and China push for influence in Afghanistan. ++ Both, Kabul and Washington depend on Moscow’s benevolence in terms of arms trade and NATO deployment. ++ Conversely, Iran aims to curb the US military threat. ++ “As for China…there are two imperatives: controlling a
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Despite the current economic improvement in the US, global prospects still leave room for scepticism. ++ “The world can no longer rely [on] growth [for] free-spending Americans, because the US needs export-led growth.” ++ Developing countries could replace America globally, if they increased domestic spending and imports. ++ Worldwide trade imbalances are rooted in Asian states’
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After the 13th round of border talks, India and China have still not found a solution to their territorial dispute. ++ Despite the ongoing conflict China has become a crucial trading partner for India, even surpassing the US. ++ Failure to develop lucrative economic ties is the major consequence of heated confrontation. ++ While China demands Aksai Chin, the Chinese-controlled Arunachal Pradesh
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Through investment in infrastructure projects China is quickly gaining influence in Russia’s Far East and Central Asia. ++ Beijing lent $25billion to Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft and pipeline manufacturer Transneft in order to complete ESPO oil pipeline. ++ “Although the direct cause of this move is the global economic crisis, the root cause is the mismanagement of the
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The financial crisis evoked the necessity of a rebalancing of the global power equilibrium and of Europe’s status in it. ++ “Nowadays, there is both too much and too little Europe”. ++ While European countries are overrepresented in the world’s premier forums, Europe lacks influence, because of its heterogeneity. ++ “The absurdity of Italy’s presence in the
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The US-China talks held over the last two days can be seen as a good start for a better Sino-American relationship. ++ “There is a clear perspective from this meeting that the US and China will cooperate closely on climate change.” ++ The summit helped the two states to develop a “greater mutual understanding of their economic interdependence” and to progress on the question “on how to broaden
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Last week Rio Tinto, the Australian mining giant, saw four of its executives arrested in Shanghai on spying charges. ++ The arrests took place directly after a deal between Rio and a Chinese state-owned company was cancelled. ++ Dirty politics may be natural for the Chinese, but Beijing should rethink its clumsy attempts to control business through political pressure. ++ These policies will not
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Recent events in Iran and China have demonstrated the impressive power
of the internet. Iranians used web communication technologies like Twitter to
spread reports and images of their protests worldwide, despite attempts at
government censorship. In China a massive online resistance was formed against
new filter software to be placed in all computers, one which would protect
children form
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With its focus on China, the Obama administration loses sight of India’s importance as a strategic partner in Asia. ++ The US’ Asia policy “lacks a distinct strategic imprint.” ++ Obama looks at India primarily in terms of India-Pakistan engagement even demanding that New Delhi “come to aid of terror-exporting Pakistan.” ++ Asian geopolitical transitions are vital for international strategic
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In times of international competition for energy resources and strategic partners, the US must move more quickly to embrace a relationship with Turkmenistan and Belarus. ++ China is constructing a gas pipeline to Turkmenistan. ++ Moscow aims to include Belarus in a military pact. ++ “The longer the West stays on the sidelines […] the harder it will be to achieve anything in the region.” ++
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The meeting of the six-nation Shanghai Co-operation Organisation this week will discuss the creation of a new type of financial institution that will challenge the dominance of US-style free markets. ++ This is an opportunity for China, Russia and India to “build an increasingly multipolar world order.” ++ These countries argue that the root of the global financial crisis is that the US makes too
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North Korea’s latest missile attacks and their withdrawal from the armistice with the US could escalate to become a new chapter of the Korean war. ++ “The combination of aggressive behavior and succession questions is a dangerous mixture.” ++ Both North and South Korea have reasons to avoid a new war. ++ Though the US has largely refrained from “sabre rattling,” if a new conflict did break out
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In a comparison of worldwide military spending, China has climbed to second place. ++ “The US spent $607 billion on defense, which exceeds the expenditure of the other top 14 states in one year.” ++ The worldwide war on terror has resulted in a “general tendency to approach issues from a military perspective.” ++ The overall military spending of countries has increased by four per cent. ++
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The economic crisis has reminded China of the fragility of an export focused economy. ++ As a result China must consider wealth management alternatives and the “initial stage of industrial development is crucial to value creation in the future.” ++ China is in the middle part of the industrial chain and the lack of pricing power and industrial core competitiveness limits their ability to make
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The US - China relationship remains the most important in world politics. ++ “China’s response to the financial turmoil has been forthright” and has impressed governments across the world. ++ The US supports China’s membership in the reconstituted Financial Stability Board, as well as giving China more influence within the IMF that reflects their presence in the global economy. ++ The US and
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China’s £2 trillion of foreign currency reserves could help fix the financial crisis. ++ China is already the sixth largest outward investor. ++ “The era of Made in China is drawing to a close, the era of Owned by China is starting and we had better be ready for a rapid transition.” ++ Some countries are concerned Chinese investments could be used to seek political ends, but the “west needs
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In
December the UN Climate Change Conference meets in Copenhagen to negotiate a follow up agreement
to the Kyoto Protocol. For China
this represents a double challenge: on the one side the Chinese government must
guarantee that in the war against climate change their domestic economy is not
slowing down. After all, the most important sources of legitimacy for the sole
governing party are
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The global financial crisis has highlighted both the decline of the US and the dependence of the world on China’s economy. ++ Given that reform is inevitable, China will be a central player in whatever new global financial architecture emerges from the present crisis. ++ Five years ago, China was not even included in discussions on such matters. ++ Apart from reform to the IMF and the World
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North Korea’s closest ally, China, will have to lead any constructive diplomatic response to Kim Jong-Il’s decision to abandon long-running nuclear non-proliferation talks following international condemnation of Pyongyang’s firing of a test missile. ++ China is keen to make its mark on the world stage and “has both the clout and the responsibility to haul Pyongyang back into line.” ++ Getting
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Despite the agreement at last week’s G20 meeting, concerns exist that protectionism will come to the fore. ++ The Chinese proposal to replace the US dollar as the international currency is emblematic of this. ++ For decades the dollar has “lubricated global prosperity” but overreliance can also backfire. ++ There is no obvious replacement for the dollar as the euro and the yen are not suitable
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The United States is considered the destination of choice by immigrants the world over. Especially highly skilled immigrants regard the US as a land of endless possibilities and ever attractive prospects. However, more and more immigrants are turning their backs on the US. New studies show that above all people from India and China are moving back to their homeland in droves, hoping for better
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The Indian Ocean is well on the way to becoming the location of global conflict in the 21st century. Today the third largest body of water on the Earth is already considered the most important cross national sea route. And its importance is on the rise. The coasts of the Indian Ocean are increasingly developing into a huge energy trading network. This also applies to the Eastern African coasts.
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The period between April 4-8 will be characterized by tension given North Korea’s plans to launch a rocket and the suspicion that it might be a long range missile. ++ The US spoke of a defensive response if the rocket heads towards the US. ++ Yesterday’s meeting between President Obama and Hu Jintao could be crucial given China’s role as North Korea’s main oil supplier.
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Brazil, Russia, India and China, the “BRIC” countries, have called the IMF to implement sweeping reforms “to adapt to the ever-changing global financial situation.” ++ To give the IMF greater legitimacy, reforms should “give proper representation to and increase the say of emerging developing economies. ” ++ As the world’s third largest economy, China should get a place in the monetary body. ++
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Japan fears abandonment. ++ The US has tried to reassure it by making it the first stop on Clinton’s tour and receiving PM Aso as the first foreign dignitary in Washington, but this does not suffice. ++ Tokyo has difficulty in adapting to the evolution of the international system and cannot cope with China’s rise and the Sino-American rapprochement. ++ The economic crisis and the
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The US’ response to Burma’s suffering under a military junta has been strict economic sanctions. ++ The limited effectiveness of this policy led the US to consider an alternative which will deliver practical benefits to the Burmese people, but this is also met with skepticism. ++ Increased trade will be exploited to benefit the military regime and do little for the people. ++
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Leaders of the three largest economies should meet up in Hawaii. ++ There has never before been a summit for the US, Japan and China, but the time has come. ++ Japan needs to break its political marginalization towards China, Americans must stop trying to divide Asia, and China is ready to take its place on the world stage. ++ In this crisis, nationalistic tendencies must be resisted. ++ Take
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Iran celebrated the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Republic by launching a satellite (Omid) into space. ++ While the world over criticized this move, China’s awkward silence has been stirring suspicion. ++ Let’s not forget that Iran participated in the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization and that the Chinese Great Wall Industry Corp has been punished by the US for selling
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Protectionist measures, like the proposed Buy American provisions in the US stimulus package, will not be taken lightly by other countries. ++ Even if measures followed WTO rules, China and India can retaliate. ++ Americans will “learn history, which they do not study enough at school, by seeing it repeated in their own lifetime.” ++ US accusations of Chinese currency manipulation are popular
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Last year
125 vessels were attacked by Somali pirates in the Gulf of
Aden, one third of which were successfully boarded. Among them was
a hijacked Saudi super tanker laden with oil and a Ukrainian ship carrying 33
Russian armoured vehicles. Both incidents intensified international concern
over the possible capture of more “sensitive cargo,” such as radioactive
material The Somali pirates
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Obama spoke of sacrifice, but the only ones sacrificing are the Chinese, Japanese and Saudis who fund America’s debt. ++ These countries are the sole creditor nations able to buy bonds to finance the spending expected by Americans. ++ Once they have invested, these creditors will be trapped, as any attempt to rid themselves of the bonds will collapse their value. ++ America is bloated: 5% of
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The poor should not be beggared to bail out speculators. ++ Housing, health care and education are so expensive they are creating misery comparable to the ills of imperialism, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism that once afflicted China. ++ Officials calling on “everyone to spend a year’s income” and call it “patriotic consumption” are echoes of Marie Antoinette. ++ Consumption is not
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As China’s South Fleet moves into the Gulf of Aden to fight Somali pirates, larger “strategic combat configurations” are at play: namely the Middle East. ++ A presence in Aden could secure China the Middle East access it desires. ++ While involvement in Africa is one of China’s strategic goals (the Horn receives 70% of China’s investment), Beijing may be trying “to match the flair the West once
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The Great Depression hindered the democratic progress; the current crisis could advance it. ++ Authoritarian countries like China, Russia, Venezuela and Iran will suffer more than democratic competitors. ++ Political legitimacy based on “delivering the economic goods” is weaker than one based on political freedom and the capacity to change governments without changing regime. ++ Democracies may
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China’s deployment of two Chinese destroyers in Somalia as a response to the piracy threat opens a new chapter in Chinese security policy. ++ Although at face value the move is not threatening, it portrays China’s commitment to develop its naval capabilities and reveals a growing access to important trade routes. ++ The new development cannot be ignored by the US, which should seek
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Last year Chinese officials held a record number of press conferences. ++ For the first time Chinese president Hu Jintao joined a chat on a news portal. ++ Vice mayor Li Ou hosts one of the most popular Chinese blogs. ++ This, along with online debates on proposed laws, shows Chinese confidence in improved, transparent governance. ++ But Internet outcries over corrupt officials, while sometimes
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Samurai-philosopher Fukuzawa’s longstanding notion that Japan should “leave Asia and enter the West” is likely to fade in 2009. ++ “Tokyo needs to diversify diplomatic and economic relations.” ++ Ruling party LDP may soon be replaced by opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), who advocate multilateral cooperation. ++ “Japan’s efforts to establish the East Asian Community - a proposed economic
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We “wanted Russia to be a market economy, but Russia never asked how.” ++ Gazprom is like the East India Company, from which market economies grew. ++ Other sources are unreliable; China, Japan and India look to Russia for gas. ++ While the EU builds pipelines to pass unreliable ex-communist states, Russia builds east - and southwards. ++ Gazprom’s hard game is market economy and it refuses to
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While the world welcomes the end of the Bush presidency and places its hopes on the man who promised change, China stands aloof from the celebrations. ++ President Bush turned a blind eye to China’s human rights abuses and failed to provide criticism of Chinese military expansion, leaving it undisturbed to pursue its goal of becoming a world power. ++ Currently, global recession and a new
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Barack Obama, financial crisis, resurgent Russia, G20, Western decline, climate change - in the season of global predictions, current discourse is driven by these and other such catchwords. ++ Yet, predictions from December 2007 were of little value: none predicted the financial collapse, none an Obama victory, nor any vastly fluctuating oil prices or governments’ failure to keep pace with global
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This week marks 30 years since China put into place measures to increase economic and political freedoms. ++ The latter have not been realized. ++ On the contrary, China’s judicial system in the years since has been “corrupt and ineffective,” with regular curtailment of civil and human rights and detention of activists and protestors. ++ It is crucial that China redress this,
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China’s behavior towards Pakistan is the first big pointer as to whether it will become a responsible stakeholder on the international stage. ++ Both the US and China have for too long engaged in a hands-off approach in Pakistan because of strategic considerations. ++ A coordinated effort from both countries to “bring multilateral pressure to bear on Pakistan” is needed. ++ To
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Protests and strikes have taken place among laid-off workers across China as the financial crisis begins to hit. ++ Global demand for Chinese goods is likely to plummet in 2009, creating heightened tension between the US and China. ++ Protectionist measures in the US, which are likely to be emulated in the EU, will hit the Chinese export market very hard. ++ The Chinese economy is
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The myth of decoupled markets is all but shattered. ++ Asian countries, especially China, who benefited from trade imbalances and western overconsumption, will have difficulty adjusting. ++ In reaction to these new economic conditions trade deficit countries could absorb the production imbalance through government spending; trade surplus countries could attempt to increase domestic consumption to
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Barack Obama’s approach towards China is unlikely to be confrontational in view of the current global situation. ++ The US has plenty of conflict to deal with elsewhere and needs Chinese cooperation in dealing with North Korea. ++ However, the increasing trade imbalance between the two countries is volatile. ++ It should be dealt with by lifting trade restrictions on Chinese goods. ++
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Britain’s culture commands admiration from around the world; more so than its politics or economic power. ++ Football, leading universities and an elegant command of the English language are among the most iconic of Britain’s cultural offerings. ++ In order to maintain this “magnetic power abroad,” the state must play a limited role in cultural affairs. ++ However, increased public
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We now have an opportunity for a world government - a global currency, supreme court, law, civil service, and military force, as in the EU, is possible. ++ Global warming, the financial crisis and the war on terror offer reasons for such global governance. ++ China and the US are becoming more open to global solutions. ++ Susan Rice, US ambassador to the UN, shows a commitment to international
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In the 1990’s Asia was considered the pioneer in democratic renewal. Out of Asia spread a democratic wave from southern Europe through Latin America and into Africa. In recent times, however, democratization in Asia has experienced significant set-backs. Quasi-authoritarian regimes in Sri Lanka, Cambodia, and the Philippines set the military against political opposition and profit from declared
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Under Bush, the State Department, Defense Department, and White House fought over the War on Terror. ++ Clinton and Obama fought in the primaries, which does not bode well for their cooperation. ++ The Clinton administration of the 90’s took a hard-line position on Japan, while being light on China. ++ This apparent double standard may continue, and could threaten stability in Asia. ++ Japan must
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China Investment Corporation, a fund that manages foreign exchange reserves for China, says it does not dare invest in western financial institutions. ++ When “government policies change every week, how can you expect that to make me confident?,” said Lou Jiwei, head of the fund. ++ US officials are trying to convince China not to let its currency, the renminbi, devalue, as this would give China
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Barack Obama should adopt Al Gore’s proposal for a carbon tax on a global scale. ++ In today’s hyper-globalized economy, cap-and-trade systems that only apply to certain countries are not a viable solution. ++ A harmonized tax would allow for cheaper and cleaner energy in the long term. ++ An incentive for developing countries to participate could come in the form of access to a portion of rich
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China is spending its $586 billion stimulus plan on infrastructure development. ++ However, a steel and concrete stimulus will not provide long-term economic growth. ++ Instead, China should equally distribute ownership rights to the remaining 119,000 state-owned enterprises, valuing around $4 billion, and create a more transparent budget process through public hearings and
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The most pressing moral issue the next US administration will have to face, is the genocide that is taking place in Dafur. ++ The International Criminial Court is likely to issue a warrant for arresting Sudan’s president, al-Bashir, “charging him with crimes against humanity and genocide in Darfur.” ++ President-elect Obama should support the legitimacy of the ICC and provide
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Western oriented, business friendly, and governed by smart, young people, Georgia is a country on the rise. ++ NATO should not be her final resting place, though. ++ Georgia doesn’t meet NATO requirements for full control of its territory and a closer look reveals its media is like Russia’s: state run and laden with propaganda. ++ “Georgia’s future is economic
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Great challenges await the 44th US president, especially economic ones. The Brookings Institution lists the ten most important:
Restoring Financial Stability: Strengthening the global financial system is a priority alongside the task of defeating the current financial market crisis. Such a strengthening includes increased national regulation and decreased dependence on foreign credit.
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China can revive the world economy by strengthening its consumption. ++ Its industrial development has been shaped by US consumer demand and “US consumption has in turn been fueled by Chinese lending that kept interest rates low.” ++ This circle is broken - the US economy is in a recession and the Chinese are failing to fill the gap. ++ China has the resources to undertake stimulus
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Now in the eighth round of the Sino-Tibetan dialogue, China’s expectations are clear: Tibet must follow the Shangri-La model. ++ Shangri-La, part of the Tibet Autonomous Region, is strictly controlled by Beijing, maintaining civil order at all costs. ++ With 30% of the population Tibetan, the area has maintained 20% economic growth over the last six years and is a popular tourist destination. ++
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There is a lesson to be learned from the West’s decision to integrate China into its fold following Tiananmen Square. ++ While China is still ruled by the same horrific party responsible for the Cultural Revolution, it is “a far cry from the Mao Zedong era.” ++ By applying the same “global liberalizing influences” to Russia, all will benefit from closer “peace
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30 years after the signing of the Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty, the two countries are now more than ever in a position to create positive change in Asia and abroad. ++ The two countries can cooperate on “the regional financial crisis; nuclear disarmament of North Korea; global warming; and creating a regional immediate response system for natural disasters or infectious diseases.” ++
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China’s recent move to make permanent its “modest easing of controls on reporting by foreign journalists” is a half measure following Olympic pledges. ++ Hu Jia is “living proof that human rights in China worsened rather than improved thanks to the Games” and is the recent recipient of the EU’s Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, which the Chinese government tried to head off through
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The financial crash will have serious geopolitical consequences. ++ Russia will reassert itself as a global player. ++ As its stock market does not play as crucial a role as in Western markets, and as Russia has a lot of money due to the boom in oil and natural gas markets, it will be the greatest winner in the aftermath of the crisis. ++ The US will also, in the long run, gain as the crisis will
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When it comes to the economy, the West and China are becoming more and more alike. ++ The Chinese are moving towards private ownership and crave the kind of dynamism that only a capitalist system can provide. ++ Western economies, on the other hand, are only capitalist in name. ++ They don’t trust the free market anymore; they want a safety net in case of an economic slowdowns or crunches,
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G20 nations represent 85 percent of the world’s economy. ++ The forum is essential for addressing the financial meltdown. ++ Developed nations urgently need liquidity; the vast reserves of foreign capital held by emerging economies are the remedy. ++ Bush’s first appearance at the G20 highlights this very fact. ++ “It’s of all nations’ common interest to take coordinated measures to tackle the
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China’s demand for raw materials and new markets boosts its appetite for economic and military involvement in Africa. ++ The African continent is increasingly serving as a proxy battleground for Beijing and Washington. ++ China exports weapons to states hostile to the US thus complicating American counterterrorism actions. ++ Chinese involvement in Africa must be countered. ++ Bush took a
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To date China can, through financial repression - state regulation, which undermines market mechanisms in the financial system - sustain the costs of an undervalued currency. However, by adhering to these financial policies, China’s economy may soon endure the resulting backlash: low level interest rates, which drive excessive credit demand, a weak domestic demand and therefore a large dependence
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The Bush administration announced its intention to agree to a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan. ++ There are more than 1,400 missiles on the Chinese side of the Taiwan Strait that endanger Taiwan’s security. ++ The sale will help to avert the threat and “fulfill the US commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act”. ++ Taiwan will thereby gain leverage against China, who has defined
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It is time for the “globar” - or “global dollar,” a collective Asian bond that could revitalize the world economy by catering to US currency-stabilization needs and simultaneously recycling massive Asian surpluses back into tangible assets in Asia itself. ++ Asia’s surpluses are primarily in US dollars, a risky investment in the current turmoil. ++ Asian countries are no longer mere borrowers,
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Efforts to address carbon emissions must be undertaken with exigency. ++ Developing countries like China, India and Brazil are responsible for half of all carbon emissions worldwide; their output has doubled over the past two decades. ++ 8.47 gigatons of emissions were released in 2007, up 2.9 percent over 2006. ++ Polluters will not change their energy policy until the US takes action. ++ The US
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The possible regime crisis in N. Korea poses a threat of loose nukes, floods of refugees, and long-term economic upheaval, but is also a great chance to reunite the Peninsula under democratic rule. ++ The US-South Korean Forces may need to intervene to keep WMDs out of the wrong hands. ++ S. Korea fears an economic situation like that after the Berlin Wall, but the longer unification is delayed,
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It’s a critical question: Is the financial crisis on Wall Street going to damage the US’s image of good finance and business expertise? ++ Actually, the answer is no. ++ The image of the US from a global perspective is still strong, and the US is for many “a beacon of free enterprise.” ++ There is no other financial leader who could replace the US - Europe is divided, while Russia and China have
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Given the interdependence between the economic growth of China and the world, it is necessary to integrate China into the global economy system. ++ One option is the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED), which brings US and Chinese policymakers together to expand the bilateral relations. ++ Due to the long consultation that the Chinese government needs for decision making, the dialogue is
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Oil prices have tripled in the last seven years and if they continue to rise, it may have profound political consequences. ++ Oil-consuming nations shouldn’t become hostages of the oil-producing countries – they must “end the blackmail of the strong by the weak.” ++ Reducing the price of oil by eliminating the speculative pressures behind price rises must be the paramount
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For a long time it has been thought that world markets are decoupling, enabling the emerging economies of the BRIC group to thrive regardless of the economic slowdown in the Western world. ++ The emerging countries were predicted to quickly overtake the veterans of the G7. ++ New data, however, seem to puncture that theory. ++ BRICs do not live in an enclosed world, and the credit crunch has had
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This time, the declaration of a new world order does not depend on the next US president. ++ Now, it is the new economies that are shaping geopolitics, not the US. ++ Moreover, the complex matrix of various actors hinders global governance and, right now, any possible order is regional. ++ The successful policy of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the reorientation of the Persian Gulf
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Due to high oil prices that make transport more expensive, US companies might stop outsourcing to Asia and give Mexico another chance. ++ China’s export taxes are rising, its workers are demanding higher wages and the Chinese currency is rapidly appreciating against the USD. ++ Therefore, Mexico is the better choice, but it also has to cope with challenges such as high raw material costs and
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The domestic political culture in India determines whether India will work out in its new role as a nuclear power. ++ So far, suspicion and accusation among the politicians hindered India’s democratic institutions to produce a coherent notion of national purpose. ++ External actors such as China and the US have again and again manipulated the preferences of India’s politicians. ++ But now it is
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While
Pakistan is often called a failed state it is more accurately labeled as a flailing
state. The PPP-PML coalition cannot solve every problem alone but needs help
from India, China and the US. These nations, which had once contributed to the
distortion of Pakistani politics, may now play a positive role in assisting
Pakistanis develop a democratic order to cope with several critical
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China’s emergence as a global power bears eerie resemblance to Germany during the Bismarck era. ++ The reaction back then was World War I, but will the world react better this time? ++ China’s military in Asia does not compare to Germany’s in 1914, but Chinese military spending has vastly grown. ++ This might encourage neighbors to adjust their defenses, as Europe did before World War I. ++ The
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The World Bank recently reported that in 2005 there were 1.4 billion people living below the poverty line - a figure which it had previously underestimated. ++ Still, this figure does not take into account the rising food and energy prices witnessed in the last two years. ++ This new data only stresses the necessity for aid stemming from developed countries, particularly the G8. ++ Having
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President Medvedev was unable to achieve the explicit support of the Chinese president for Russia’s intervention in the Caucasus at the latest Central Asian summit. ++ China has not only avoided any anti-western statements so far, it is also concerned about an upcoming trend of separation which may spill over to its own ethnically diverse provinces. ++ Beijing has kept a low-profile in the
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Beijing Olympics mark a new era: China is opening up to the world and the Western ignorance and fear of the People’s Republic is declining. ++ Many Atlantic leaders see China’s growth as a threat but it might also be a great opportunity, provided we forgo our historic arrogance. ++ Today’s challenges are global and the West cannot face them unless it cooperates with major global
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The successful staging of the Olympics is extra important to Beijing as increasing its “soft power” is one of China’s major objectives. ++ Though domestic corruption and lack of democracy makes China attractive in authoritarian and semi-authoritarian developing countries, it undermines its soft power in the West. ++ A recent Pew poll proves that despite China’s efforts, the US continues to
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The Atlantic view that it’s necessary to protect the underdog from its powerful neighbour is isolated; most of the world is bemused at Western double standards and sees Russia as bullied by the West. ++ Events in Georgia show that the West lacks strategic thinking. ++ Instead of dealing with Russia, Western thinkers should decide what the greatest long-term challenge is – China or the
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The reemergence of autocracy and great-power politics questions the stability of the international liberal order. ++ Unfortunately, Europe’s postmodern tools of foreign policy are not able to counter Russia in the latest conflict between liberal democracy and autocracy. ++ Facing the rise of great-power autocracies, democracies turn back in the direction of the US. ++ Despite predictions of
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The debate between individualism and collectivism seemed closed after the cold war, but if collectivist societies rise economically, the outnumbered individualists won’t continue to dominate. ++ Americans usually value individuals, rights, and privacy and Asians value relationships, harmony, and duty. ++ Scientists say the Western idea of individual choice is an illusion and the real key to
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After the collapse of the Soviet Union and victory of western liberalism, the world is experiencing a revival of authoritarianism, especially in petro-states in Latin America or the Middle East. ++ Furthermore, Russia has learned its lesson from history: instead of liberalization, Putin established a neo-authoritarian state with imperial ambitions as the latest Russian retaliation proves. ++
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The West not only dominates the issues of the day, it also neglects perspectives other than its own. ++ Human rights and Tibet are in the center of the Western media coverage of China, but not all countries share this critical view on People’s Republic. ++ In contrast to people in the Western countries, Chinese are very interested in foreign press and the way their country is portrayed abroad.
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With regard to the global slowdown, it would be wise if China privatized state-owned assets in order to transform China’s growth model from being export-driven to being stimulated by domestic consumption. ++ Even if the country’s assets in government hands supported the emergence of an industrialized economy in the past, it is time for the government to share the wealth through economic growth
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US-China relationship is arguably the most important bilateral tie of our time and its benefits are increasingly recognized. ++ One of the advantages of the Olympic Games is that the attention it generates could create a better understanding of modern China and finally tear down the cold-war perception of the People’s Republic in the US. ++ Washington and Beijing must engage in a
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For China’s strategic and economic interests it is crucial to maintain a good image, otherwise counter-alliances are likely. ++ Nonetheless, the ruling elite is not willing to establish a constitutional state to replace the “socialist constitutional state.” ++ As a consequence, the police tortures with impunity, and opponents of the Communist party are thrown into prison or psychiatric
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Tomorrow China’s new antimonopoly law takes effect. ++ At a formal level, it is comparable to the laws in the US and the EU, but its implementation will not be as simple. ++ The US encourages competition in the marketplace; EU, on the other hand, strives to keep booming businesses from being too successful - Chinese law resembles the European system. ++ Moreover, the formulated goals such as the
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The global trade negotiations known as the Doha Round broke up yesterday without an agreement. ++ Despite expectations of a new international plan to cut tariffs, members of the WTO proved themselves unready for such a deal. ++ While the US and the EU had made some concessions on farm supports, India and China essentially torpedoed the talks asserting a broad right to raise tariffs to protect
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Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder stated in his article on China that the economic wealth will advance the democratic transformation of the country ++ But it is not that simple: the Communist party uses the economic success to justify its rule. ++ Therefore, it is necessary to coordinate German policy towards China with that of other Western powers. ++ Schröder in his article
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America declares it stands up for human rights; it condemns the regime in Burma and calls for fair democratic elections in Zimbabwe. ++ However, it is doing so only where it is convenient: human rights infringements in China and Saudi Arabia or the fact that Dmitri Medvedev came to power in fraudulent elections are overlooked. ++ The hypocrisy of condemning one and turning a blind eye to the
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The ascendancy of Anglo-American capitalism has been an illusion - as proven by the credit crisis which originated in the US. ++ Apart from this model, there are different forms of state capitalism developing in China, Russia, the Middle East, and South America. ++ In principle, the existence of different forms of capitalism is healthy, but the attempt of each capitalism to assert its own
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After the end of the cold war the world experienced a transition period of US dominance. ++ The new world order will be multipolar. ++ Therefore, we need Beijing to solve the global challenges
and it is up to Germany to promote an international integration of China. ++ The economic and the civil domain are the keys for the development of bilateral relations. ++ China’s internal liberalization
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Economists are baffled why higher oil prices and higher demand has not lead to higher production. ++ The answer is: the “China bubble.” ++ Oil producing countries are leaving oil in the ground, in hopes that China’s consumptions and readiness to pay higher prices will increase over time. ++ Low US interests rates deter further drilling, as invested US Dollars are less lucrative.
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Since the Cold War, US foreign policy has struggled to find a “main enemy,” thereby defining its focus. ++ Global politics, however, have returned to a status quo, in which a broad range of problems, with long-term resilience and requiring non-ideological responses, will be better served with America’s continuing strategic advantage on most fronts. ++ On a non-governmental
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On the surface, the strategic Sino-Russian relationship seems at an apex. ++ In reality, however, relations between the two leading Eurasian powers are being weakened by a stalemate in military sales, disputes over energy prices, and a general decline in trade due to Russia’s wavering manufacturing capacity. ++ China’s trade with Russia in 2007 accounted for 2 percent of China’s global trade
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The annual inflation rate in Zimbabwe has reached 9 million percent. ++ The only reason why the country is still afloat are huge Chinese investments. ++ Zimbabwean critics contend that Beijing will continue to support Harare unconditionally, while piling up various claims on Zimbabwe’s natural resources. ++ A constructive engagement with China needs to be put in place. ++ This is especially
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The Dalai Lama seems to be more interested in fanning up international pressure on China than in talking seriously with the central government. ++ However, after the Olympics, his influence in the West will probably fade. ++ His concept of “high-level” or “maximum” autonomy cannot possibly be accommodated within the Chinese Constitution as it would mean the restoration of theocracy. ++ It is time
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July 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the NPT which provided an opportunity to reexamine its current and future role. ++ Nuclear nonproliferation movement is at a crossroads. ++ It is crucial that the next US president calls for deep cuts in nuclear weapons around the world at the start of his administration in January 2009. ++ He should also appoint a nonproliferation “czar” to help him shape
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Despite China’s plummeting international rapport, its leaders have already declared the Olympics a victory. ++ Fearing domestic turmoil, Chinese political leaders have turned the event into a consumerable good, with which they may prove their “mandate of heaven.” ++ Movies, pop-music, and even school cirricula have been heavily censored and geared to portray the Beijing Olympics
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Sino-American ties are likely to be the most important component of international relations for the next several decades. ++ The question is whether China’s re-emergence can be managed without a conflict. ++ Powerful voices on the right of US politics want a tougher stance against China. ++ But there is no clearer expression of the interdependence that comes with globalisation than between
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Senator McCain’s call for a “League of Democracies” would be a danger rather than an aid to world peace. ++ With both Russia and China excluded, the league would be unable to combat the most pressing global matters: terrorism, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. ++ McCain’s plan could even create a Cold War-like tension between democratic and autocratic states. ++ The League of Democracies
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Foreign direct investment is slowing down worldwide due to nations’ fears of losing control of what they call “critical infrastructure.” ++ Markets have recently experienced FDI coming from non-traditional sources such as China and the Middle East, spurring governments to implement market-disrupting controls. ++ This is unnecessary. ++ Protectionist restrictions harm source and receiving
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Coercive diplomacy is America’s only remaining option as its influence declines in the Middle East. ++ Especially in the case of an Obama presidency, this “changed constellation” in the region calls for India to readjust its strategy. ++ India needs to balance Israel and Syria, and constructively engage Iran. ++ Like China, India should acknowledge the region’s importance for its own energy
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Gao Xiqing, the president of China’s sovereign wealth fund expressed his frustration concerning the political opposition his fund sometimes faces when it attempts to invest in the West. ++ From the economic point of view, this is frightening. ++ Without SWF investments, the current financial crisis in the US would be much worse. ++ If SWF shareholders no longer feel welcome in the US, they
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The 4th China-US Economic Dialogue will be held in the US this week. ++ The US and China can only win when cooperating in the energy and environment sector. ++ Chinese officials state they are working on reducing energy consumption by 20% by 2010 and setting goals: “Intensify energy and resource conservation. Develop renewable energy. Actively adapt to global climate change.” ++ In return, China
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Surprisingly, it is some of the fastest developing countries such as China and India, that are slowing down the Doha development talks. ++ Protectionism in one country triggers a chain reaction that blocks free trade in several sectors across the globe. ++ The losers are those for whom Doha was conceptualized: farmers and small businesses in slowly developing countries. ++ Opening up the
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The future world energy order will have China, India, and Middle Eastern countries rather than OECD countries at its helm. ++ Conventional oil is likely to peak soon, and unconventional oil will then play an important role. ++ Since global oil resources are limited, it is only a matter of time before all oil will peak. ++ Though biofuels have received much criticism recently, without them fuel
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Last month’s devastating earthquake in Sichuan has taught the Chinese a very important lesson, namely the importance of civil society. ++ The outpouring of foreign and local aid accompanied by a plethora of new philanthropic websites and aid organizations, has been too massive for the government to regulate. ++ As the Party feels its grip wavering, Chinese citizens are coming together from all
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The growing popularity of John McCain’s League of Democracies among US voters of both parties should raise concern. ++ In a post-American world peace and prosperity especially require Chinese and Russian cooperation. ++ Democracies would be no less paralysed into inaction than the UN and would further lack international legitimacy for intervention. ++ It is by reforming the
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In a series of recent talks, poignantly described as “bad dates,” Russian President Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao were divided on issues concerning missile defense and energy resources. ++ Ready to elide almost all other bilateral concerns, China’s need to procure oil and gas seems to be shifting its arm of diplomacy towards the Middle East. ++ Given their estranged
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President Medvedev’s visit to China has important symbolic significance. ++ Driven by their shared goals of safeguarding and promoting national interests in an era of US dominance, Beijing and Moscow have grown increasingly close in recent years. ++ They formed strategic partnerships on key international issues, such as defense, and established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. ++ Yet
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Responsibility and emergency to act in Burma cannot be doubted but UN legitimacy is lacking and R2P stands for “responsibility to protect,” not “right to invade.” ++ Any action requires “a careful, informed calculation of the likely consequences.” ++ Now the junta has acquiesced to limited aid “under an Asian umbrella,” the West should drop plans for air and sea bridges that could entail the
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The earthquake in Sichuan may be remembered as a milestone in the Chinese “peaceful evolution” toward capitalism and democracy. ++ Private Chinese donations have already raised more than $500 million. ++ That kind of bottom-up public spirit is a mark of citizens, not subjects. ++ There are 75 million blogs, often critical of the government, and tens of thousands of citizen protests
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China’s recent need for energy resources has accelerated at an alarming rate. ++ US envoy to the Paris-based International Energy Association (IEA), Daniel S. Sullivan, maintains that China and India must join international organizations in order to control usage and ensure energy security. ++ As oil prices skyrocket, developing nations, desperately in need of energy resources, are less
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A 30-year lease of the Afghan copper deposits was sold to the China Metallurgical Group for $3 billion, making it the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan’s history. ++ While critics argue Afghanistan is too ill-equipped to absorb such huge sums of money or to assess the social and environmental costs, most Afghans see the deal as their only chance for the future. ++ The Chinese are
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The Indian Ocean will be a strategic bridgehead for the big players of the 21st century. This relates to the Indian sea doctrine, which has been determining India’s policies in the region since its release in 2004. China’s advance in particular is pushing the Indian government to strengthen its ties with the African countries on the coast of the Indian Ocean and to regain more influence in the
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Next month the US will assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. ++ In hopes of preserving its currently vulnerable legacy as an architect of peace, the US plans to move forward in deploying peacekeeping troops to the Darfur region. ++ As the suffering on the ground intensifies, the Bush administration is hoping for partnerships with other African nations to progress in Sudan. ++ Due to
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When the world cares about what happens within a nation’s borders, it can be assumed that “superpower status” has been reached. ++ For China, this has been made poignantly evident by recent scrutiny from the international community concerning everything from Tibet to the earthquake in Sichuan. ++ Chinese nationalists blame the West for holding a double standard regarding trade,
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The US is making a bold, perhaps doltish, move by refusing to discuss a treaty aimed at preventing weapons in outer space. ++ China and Russia have warned that a countermove would be unavoidable to ensure their own security. ++ Many are urging the Pentagon to consider the historical consequences of expanding warfare to new frontiers. ++ In reality, however, defense contractors and military
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Burma’s despots are politicizing the crisis, blocking foreign relief operations, and preventing the needy from receiving food and aid. ++ 400,000 may have died and two million may now face the threats of malnutrition and disease. ++ Rather than apply sanctions or evict Burma from the UN, the international community should try to convince China, India and Thailand to remind the generals of
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Japan increasingly faces a dilemma in its relationship with China. ++ On the one hand intensifying already close economic relations with China is vital for the continued recovery of Japan’s own economy. ++ On the other hand China’s growth gives it greater regional power at the expense of Japanese influence, and creates new security concerns. ++ Japan should confidently embrace its “role as a
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Modern China is full of inner contradictions. ++ The ubiquity of internet access coexists with the impossibility to open critical websites, and the obvious ecological pollution exists side by side with the extreme cleanliness of the streets. ++ The numerous members of the Communist Party are coevally religious Buddhists or successful capitalist businessmen. ++ China is going to be the world’s
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China’s growth is especially generated in the cities. Their contribution to the GDP is around 75 percent. In 2025, there should be a billion Chinese living in urban areas, 350 million more than today. They could then be responsible for 95 percent of the Chinese GDP. For Chinese as well as international companies, this advancing urbanization of China holds huge promises. At the same time,
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African leaders are less reluctant to grant China access to their markets and resources because its aid is not conditional on good governance, democracy, or human rights. ++ The West and the UN’s attempts to tackle conflict, disease, and hunger are perceived as dictatorial re-colonization strategies aiming at challenging the Chinese. ++ Resistance to the US Africa Command has led to calls
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Two types of nationalism are prevalent in China at the moment. ++ On the one hand, a virulent nationalism that is based on continued historical grievances and is used to legitimize the rule of the Communist Party. ++ On the other hand, a “confident nationalism” based on pride in China’s rapid socioeconomic and technological transformation and its new role as a global power. ++ If the former gets
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In Asia, the rise of India is perceived as less threatening than the rise of China. ++ India does have strong military capabilities, but is a democracy, which are said to be more peaceful. ++ India’s military is believed to be unthreatening because of the turmoil in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh that concerns India. ++ Many Asians want India to counterbalance China and hope that
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Russia and China are autocracies by conviction. ++ They believe in the virtues of strong central government and despise the weaknesses of the democratic system. ++ Autocracy was thought to be less successful in aggregating national wealth, which China and Russia are proving to be untrue. ++ Can autocracies enter the liberal international order without becoming liberal? Yes, Russia and China can.
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In the face of turmoil in Tibet, India has found itself in a delicate position. ++ As a democracy, India has a tradition of permitting peaceful protest, yet it is also intent on improving Indo-Sino relations and continuing to expand trade with China. ++ “India’s government has attempted to draw a distinction between its humanitarian obligations as an asylum country and its political
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Independence is first about daily economic realities, and not about religious practice or ideology. ++ Tibet has made no visible steps to build on its autonomy; without China Tibet is not even able to feed its population. ++ All those Hollywood personalities will not create new jobs or build better infrastructure, as China did. ++ The world has a large enough inventory of failed ideas like Iraq.
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The appointment of a Chinese Professor, Lin Yifu, to the post of chief economist at the World Bank reflects the changes in the global balance of powers. ++ In the past, the World Bank, like the IMF, was traditionally dominated by American, Europeans, and their neoliberal agenda. ++ However as American financial pillars are now underpinned by Chinese money, it has become impossible to ignore
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There is no other reason for a nation, whether democratic or totalitarian, to want to host the costly modern Olympics, than the chance to stage a propagandist publicity stunt. ++ The Beijing Games’ ideological content is indubitable. ++ Since a boycott would be useless, we should encourage politicization and exploit the attention of the media with counter-stunts and demonstrations for human
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The attitudes of the Chinese government and Chinese citizens are not identical. ++ The Olympics have inspired Chinese nationalism which will lead to increased civil engagement and awareness of the responsibilities and rights of citizenship. ++ National identity is no longer determined by the government. ++ The civic dimension of Chinese nationalism may check the
authoritarian state in the future.
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Not the US but the new big globalizers are responsible for renewed global tensions since the 1980s. ++ BRIC countries, – Brazil, Russia, India and China – terrify because they compensate for weakness by projecting power. ++ Yet they struggle with inclusive development, demography, and financial transparency. ++ Small adaptable states are actually more likely to overtake performances
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To their disadvantage, Europe’s leaders are divided regarding China. ++ A visit from the Dali Lama to a European Parliament session has disgruntled one of Germany’s and most of Europe’s largest trading partners. ++ The presence of certain political figures at the Beijing games could convey mixed signals regarding Europe’s stance on human rights, as well as a dependence on China’s cheap
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The situation in Tibet is often depicted as a dictatorship repressing its people, but in reality, the majority of Chinese do not support the Tibetan cause. ++ The regime is not in opposition to its people. ++ Rather than a boycott of the Olympics, which is unwarranted and would have negative effects, private pressure should be used to urge the Chinese government to engage the Dalai Lama.
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The threats to US supremacy tend to be overstated. ++ China and Russia won’t achieve global domination while the post war arrangement goes on. ++ Yet to contain the progress of autocracy, protect and promote liberalism, and maintain its global power, the US should lead a democratic front within the framework of international institutions and cease discrediting its model with inappropriate
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Thanks to its massive
workforce and low labor costs, China
has become the twenty first century’s leading global production plant. Even for
German companies, China
has long been a fundamental market for supplies. Yet an inquiry released by
PricewaterhouseCoopers reveals some astonishing facts: for many businesses, China is not as
cheap as one may think. Indeed, on some products, there is a
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Tibet and Xinjiang are crucial for China. ++ They offer additional land, strategic geographic getaways, and essential resources. ++ If Chinese control brings wealth, development, and modernity, the promotion of Chineseness abolishes Buddhist and Muslim cultural authenticity. ++ Imperialism is
inexorable but lack of resistance may eventually allow interethnic dialogue and a more benevolent
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Since Africa is both a source of natural resources and an outlet for manufactures, it is an area where India and China’s needs overlap. ++ China’s
two-way trade with Africa is higher, yet it has been charged with neo imperialism and blamed for trading with dictators. ++ India is drawing nearer by dealing with Africa’s ethnic Indians and labeling its integration of the economy “contribution to
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The three largest Asian Powers China, India and Japan have good reason to hope for a Republican US President. ++ China and India see the world more in terms of classic balance-of-power equations. ++ Balancing a rising China is important to Japan. ++ India and China are especially interested in more free-trade oriented policies and were sympathetic to Bush’s pro-Indian strategic
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China is afraid of its unity being called into question. ++ Kosovo’s recent unilateral declaration of independence,
Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election, and China’s short history as a united country are reasons for stringent behavior in Tibet. ++ China fears the West helping Tibet or Taiwan become sovereign countries. ++ China and the West must avoid exaggerated fears
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An increasing number
of governments are becoming global economic players - and this in the form of
state-controlled companies or gigantic sovereign wealth funds. The global
economy used to be dominated by the democratic West but the states that are now
gaining influence are primarily authoritarian nations. This shift towards a new
balance of power however does not necessarily indicate the
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China’s authoritarian-capitalist model fails to federalize society and accommodate minorities. ++ The authorities’ intolerance of separatism may lead the one-party state to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. ++ Since Tibet’s quest for autonomy is no conspiracy but results from legitimate fear of cultural extinction, Hu needs to end the violence and accept the Dalai Lama as
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The protracted Six Party Talks dating back from 2003 enabled Kim Jong-il to gain time and repeatedly violate commitments. ++ If the instrumental support of Russia and China is secured, Bush should dedicate the next 10 months to rectifying concessions by exercising economic and international pressure on North Korea. ++ Nuclear weapons will still be a threat but this would salvage US original
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China should think twice before it uses excessive force on protesters in Tibet and generates an international outcry. ++ With the Beijing Olympics on the horizon, deaths in Lhasa could motivate many democracies to condemn China and withdraw from the competition. ++ China could best resolve the current crisis by inviting the Dalai Lama to talks, an action which would receive international applause.
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Uprising in Tibet is embarrassment for Beijing, especially in light of upcoming Olympics. ++ Instead of showing progress, the world sees how little has changed. ++ Instead of stepping up propaganda war, China should allow freedom of religion, end subsidies for Chinese settlers and forced relocation of Tibetan nomads, and have serious dialogue with the moderate Dalai Lama, who advocates autonomy,
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The development of modern western democracies in the last century linked economic growth with political and cultural modernization. ++ Russia and China seem to demonstrate there is a viable authoritarian alternative to democracy and the rule of law in a free market economy. ++ But both countries’ economies are ridden by intensifying corruption and deficiencies that could soon be a threat to world
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The US has failed to understand that China’s objectives do not complement America’s. ++ China does not want the US to play a role in Central and East Asia, and its actions routinely illustrate this. ++ By adopting a tolerant stance, and failing to illustrate its strength, the US demonstrates its continued misunderstanding of Chinese intentions and ensures that existing problems will only worsen
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Despite a visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy in recent days, India’s priority is clearly focused on the main actors in Asia: China and the US, says Frédéric Bobin of Le Monde. A rising power itself, India is now stuck in the position of doing a diplomatic dance between the two superpowers in an attempt to collude with the US without upsetting China. Although India is distrustful of a
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Apart from hosting international sporting events in the near future, Delhi and Beijing have a lot in common at the moment, according to Narayani Ganesh of the Times of India: both face increasingly serious environmental challenges.
However these common issues offer opportunities for scientific cooperation, as shown by a memorandum on environmental collaboration signed during PM Manohan
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The geopolitical consequences of climate change are determined as much by political, social and economic factors as by the climatic shift itself. As a rule wealthier countries will be better prepared to cope with the effects of climate change whilst developing countries are least able to do so. For example, an increase in rainfall could be a blessing for a country that can capture, store, and use
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Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at Princeton, argues in the NY Times that the biggest foreign policy issues for the next president will not be related to 9/11 or the war in Iraq. Rather, they will involve the consequences of China’s rapid economic growth.
The $100 a barrel oil price is a “made-in-China phenomenon,” given that China has been responsible for about a third of the
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The Economist reports that the Sino-American trade talks have achieved very little, despite US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s impressive links with China.
Thus, the economic meetings, dubbed “Strategic Dialogue,” although producing very little of either, failed to meet their initial goal, namely to progress towards stronger economic ties.
The biggest, and seemingly irreconcilable,
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At the recent EU-Africa two day summit in Lisbon, the EU not only failed in securing formal trade agreements with Africa but also in combating China’s growing influence in Africa according to Andrew Grice of the Independent.
Only 15 of the 76 poor countries involved have so far signed Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with Europe and Abdoulaye Wade, the President of Senegal said,
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The spheres of influence of the United States and China could be starting to shift, proposes Richard Komaiko writing for the Power and Interest News Report.
US Navy ships USS Patriot and USS Guardian were denied permission to dock in Hong Kong despite weathering a storm and facing fuel-shortages, which constitutes a violation of international naval protocol. Moreover, the flagship of the
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A new survey by the German Marshall Fund finds that further transatlantic trade and investment are seen by majorities on both sides of the Atlantic as crucial to the economic stability of the region. While Americans have grown more skeptical about their economic future, Europeans have become slightly more optimistic. Likewise, although most of those surveyed both in Europe and America support
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As the prices of basic food staples soar, the world’s poor are getting ever-hungrier and increasingly vulnerable. Furthermore, the World Food Program (WFP) is experiencing exponential growth in expenditures, informs the Economist. While 850 million people go critically hungry daily in poor countries, the rich world is concerned about 1.1 billion obese and higher incidence of cardio-vascular
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As a community based on values, the West must strengthen its cohesiveness in order to grapple with the pace of globalization, and face a geopolitical axis actively shifting toward Asia, argues Stephen Szabo, executive director of the Transatlantic Academy, which is a partnership between the German Marshall Fund and the Bucerius Zeit Stiftung.
A division of the West could prove
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China is tactfully making preparations for the potential downfall of Myanmar’s military junta, writes David Lague for the International Herald Tribune. To avoid damaging its reputation prior to the 2008 Olympics, Beijing is calling for Myanmar to reconcile the latest protests without bloodshed. Experts claim China has also maintained discreet links with opponents of Burmese military leaders
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Transportation of energy resources was top of the agenda during a recent talk between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, reports News Central Asia. Presidents Nazarbaev and Berdymuhamedov said their countries had reached an agreement on cooperation for transit and transportation of energy resources. Until now Kazakhstan’s energy exports have been dependant on the Russian
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FP lists the top most valuable disputed turfs that might just be worth a fight. The world was astonished by Russia’s recent claim to the arctic shelf, with potential for billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves. But looking globally, many other strategic and mineral rich territories are just as highly contested between several countries. Japan vs. China, Venezuela against major US oil
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The UN has declared July 2007 the halfway point towards its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), agreed upon in 2000 and scheduled to be achieved in 2015. The Economist magazine takes a close look at the interim results and comes to the conclusion that less has been achieved than the UN claims. Even though indicators such as the percentage of people living on less than one dollar a day are
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