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Tornike Zurabashvili: The unexpected Georgian elections opened up discussion on the possible future of Georgian-Russian relations. Anticipating Georgian withdrawal from its western ambitions is largely exaggerated; there are numerous reasons why a radical change in relations cannot and should not be expected with the new government in power.
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Joshua Clapp: Tomorrow marks the second US presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The debate, in a town meeting format, will include not only domestic policy but also foreign policy. How do the two candidates approach the outside world? Here is a look at five main foreign policy issues.
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Nikolay Shevchenko: The Syrian crisis marks the ultimate test for the responsibility to protect norm. The inability of the UN Security Council to reach a timely consensus does not only harm Syrians, but weakens the concept that shields populations from crimes against humanity. Instead of criticizing the vetoing of resolutions, Western powers must persuade Russia and China to propose their own visions of the norm.
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Editorial Team: With summer already over, at least in the northern hemisphere, atlantic-community.org takes a look at some of the many issues that have been written by our community of 7,000 members over the summer break.
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Foreign Affairs: Managing Editor Jonathan Tepperman interviews Professor Alex Cooley on the geopolitical role of Central Asia, and how outside powers - Russia, China, and the United States - are competing for influence in the region, as the British and Russian empires did a century ago.
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Editorial Team: Ambassador Alexander Vershbow has answered your questions! Read his responses on a range of topics covering NATO’s post-summit agenda, including Afghanistan, the conflict in Syria, relations with Russia, the operation in Libya, Smart Defense, missile defense, and NATO’s role in the Caucasus.
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Rusudan Vashakidze: What should Georgia expect from its relationship with Russia even if the West gets nothing but aggressive energy policy and a disregard for international law? Four years after the August War in 2008 the road to the West for the young democratic country remains dynamic and filled with geopolitical struggles.
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Oleg Khlopov: The resignation of Kofi Annan as UN special envoy to the Assad regime highlights the difficulty of effective international engagement. Despite the problems of diplomacy, Russia as a key player needs to rearrange its policy and work out a fruitful formula for Syria’s transition away from Assad.
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John Taylor: Although over 20 years have passed since the end of the Cold War, tensions between Russia and the West continue to exist. The West needs a new approach that takes into account Russia’s own foreign policy perspective and shows an understanding of its domestic challenges.
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Daria Wiktoria Dylla: Romney has attacked current US security policy for a missile defense plan unfavorable to NATO allies in Central Europe. Especially Poland may be in a vulnerable position without the external security balance provided by the US, but the removal of troops will be compensated for by the positioning of missiles. Thus, Poland has nothing to worry about.
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Adam Charles Lenton: Russia and China have cemented a strong bilateral relationship in recent years, presenting a united stance on the international stage. But there are tensions between them and strains on their relationship which should make for interesting developments, especially in Central Asia.
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Shalva Dzidziguri: Russia’s relationship with the West has never been easy. With the end of Cold War-era animosity, Russia has continuously sought reassurance that its Soviet-inherited geopolitical interests are protected. Ironically, EU policy might be helping Russia realize its potential in the region.
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Ilqar Fuad Qurbanov: If you talk about energy security, it’s inevitable that you will also discuss pipelines. The significance of the pipeline system can be noticed in the foreign energy policy of energy-rich countries such as Russia and has broader implications for regional relations.
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Steffen Buenau: To effectively support the ongoing transformation within Russia, Europe should put to use its most effective “soft power” tool: a relaxation of visa regulations. Such an approach is not only effective with regard to domestic transformation but will also help restore credibility in an area where Russian co-operation is crucial, namely, Syria.
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Tabish Shah: The consequences of the Russian energy monopoly in Central Asia are not simply limited to the region or its energy supplies; they have the potential to impact upon the geo-strategic balance of the world.
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Andrew Walker: NATO hopes to have its anti-ballistic missile defense in place by 2018. Any future system will bring with it high financial and diplomatic costs. The question is whether NATO wishes to actually pay those costs for a system that is still unproven and will never be 100% effective.
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Sami Kronenfeld: Representatives from the US, Europe, Russia, and China are meeting with their Iranian counterparts to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The talks can only be successful if Europe and the US reach an agreement with Russia and China on what to do if Iran does not follow international agreements.
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Gökhan Tekir: The paper analyzes how the Russian Federation uses energy as a foreign policy instrument. Russia’s main aim is to prevent Western interference in its sphere of influence. This is done by maintaining its hegemon position in supplying Caspian energy sources to Europe.
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Memo 40: NATO’s Smart Defense initiative aims to provide more security for less money. The Alliance can reach this goal by facilitating more cooperation, providing efficiency mechanisms, encouraging cooperation amongst like-minded states, and including non-NATO actors.
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Dmitry Stefanovich: Military and technical cooperation with Russia would allow NATO to increase the efficiency of their Smart Defense initiative. A closer look at the areas of cooperation between NATO and Russia reveal they are ideally suited to being part of the Smart Defense concept.
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Editorial Team: March was filled with a number of special segments at atlantic-community.org. From our continuing Q&A series with NATO officials (the most extensive yet) to our policy workshop competition (with a second Atlantic Memo coming next week), here are the top highlights from the month.
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Josiah Jason Surface: NATO must take concrete steps to strengthen its partnership framework with North Africa. Inviting Libya to join, expanding the topics covered, and tying the dialogue to discussions with the Arab League will help strengthen the Mediterranean community and the ties of partnership.
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Editorial Team: Why doesn’t NATO have a good slogan? The NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy answers this and more in a final set of your questions, including answers about post-Cold War relevance and the strength of the Article 5 guarantee.
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Valery Konyshev and Alexander Sergunin: Russia welcomes some aspects of the new US defense strategy, such as departing from the doctrine of being able to fight two major wars simultaneously and spending less on nuclear weapons. However, Moscow still has concerns about the new strategy when it comes to such diverse areas as the Arctic region, Iran, missile defense, and cyberwarfare.
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Ian Clarke Hansen: The best way to promote a communal NATO is to provide a meaningful purpose that draws upon transnational concerns and interests. The clearest and most deserving case for this is establishing a timeline of admittance for the Republic of Georgia.
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Milda Leonaviciute: The ambition to reset relations with Russia is made by a NATO administration that has forgotten its values. There is increased disunity among NATO members, and NATO needs to demonstrate it will protect and cooperate with its own people, particularly in the Baltic states.
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Jason Naselli: Demands that Iran (or anyone else) not seek nuclear weapons are hard to swallow while the US clings to so many. The only real solution for solving problems like Iranian proliferation is a legitimate nuclear regime that treats all countries equally. This means getting more serious about disarmament.
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Editorial Team: We’re excited to reveal the results of our latest members’ poll and inform you of what our priorities will be in 2012. As well as displaying your decisions on the most important issues of 2012, we’re also announcing our first theme week and what we plan to do with the topics you requested throughout the rest of the year.
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Olga Kolesnichenko: While many lament the growing military capability gap between Europe and the US within NATO, new tracks of partnership, emphasizing specialization and compatibility, have the potential to fundamentally reshape NATO’s organizational structure without compromising security.
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Editorial Team: Great policy ideas are collaborative, and member comments are a key part of our think tank. Here are some of the best comment debates from the past month, including discussions about Iran’s nuclear intentions, what Libya means to NATO, strategies for better engagement with Russia, and the possibilities of a Eurasian Union.
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Maxim Miroshnikov: Russia finds itself at a crossroads facing a set of opportunities and challenges in regards to its demographic situation, military, economy and governance. Despite undergoing dramatic economic improvement, Russia remains a great power in name only.
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Dustin Dehez: Despite Russia’s posturing as a resurgent global power, the Russian oil-based economy is vulnerable and the absence of the rule of law stands in the way of any development. Putin’s return to power will further strain Russia’s relations with the West. Now is the time to develop a new approach to Russia.
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Dmitri A Titoff: Without an agreement on a common defense policy, European states are letting market forces play a larger role in shaping their defense industries. Open markets could increase the risk of proliferation, but would also lower arms prices and improve military procurement across European borders.
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NATO: Robert Pszczel is the Alliance’s face in Russia. The head of NATO’s Moscow office, he now both talks about - and listens to opinions on - NATO’s evolving partnership with Russia. Here he explains some of the feedback - and why it’s positive to be an optimist.
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Oleg Khlopov: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) demonstrates the way regional powers can collaborate in order to bring about economic development and become security partners in Central Asia. Nowadays the SCO members are facing two main problems: the enlargement of the organization and their attitude to the role of the US in Central Asia.
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Matthew Hulbert & Christian Brutsch: Berlin’s decision to appease voters and phase out nuclear power looks more problematic as energy giants from Germany and Russia merge. The EU is now even more dependent on Russian energy than before, just as Russia turns to Asian markets. As a result, the EU could be left in the cold.
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Joerg Wolf & Victoria Naselskaya: Russia’s strategic community strongly supports Moscow’s cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan and considers missile defense the cornerstone of NATO-Russia relations. While the experts are surprisingly optimistic regarding the success of this ambitious project, they are also concerned by the lack of trust and equality in the partnership.
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Orkhan Gafarli: Before a ceasefire took effect in 1994, the Nagorno-Karabakh War took the lives of over 20,000 people. Now, the “frozen” conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is threatening to heat up once again. Both countries must implement democratic reform if a lasting peace is ever to be reached.
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Ingo Mannteufel: Germany’s political and intellectual classes are completely divided over how to perceive present-day Russia and what Germany’s policies toward the country should be. This was noticeable ahead of the Petersburg Dialogue, and even more evident during its discussions and lectures.
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Editorial Team: Atlantic-community.org recently passed two milestones, breaking the 1000-‘like’ barrier on Facebook just days after tallying 1000 followers on Twitter.
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Dmitri A Titoff: When the SCO emerged at the turn of the century, Western observers worried that its key founders, Russia and China, plotted an anti-NATO bloc. It turns out, however, that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s primary objective is to keep the status-quo in Eurasia.
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Helen Turek: Following almost two decades of isolation, this paper sets out to examine why Belarus has traditionally had such a limited range of foreign policy options, and what has changed in the last two years, causing Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka to try and appeal as a partner to the West.
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Vasco Martins: This article proposes four interlinked hypothesis to explain the immense geopolitical benefits of recognizing Abkhazia, while understanding that certain ‘hard-line’ factions within the Russian government might have planned the outcome of the conflict.
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Editorial Team: At the culmination of atlantic-community.org’s policy workshop competition, German students Julia Grauvogel, Philipp Große and Sascha Lohmann discussed their team’s policy recommendations with US Ambassador Philip D. Murphy and CDU/CSU Foreign Policy Spokesman Philipp Mißfelder.
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William C. Fleeson: US President Barack Obama’s trip to Europe this May would suggest a re-commitment to the transatlantic partnership, with special attention given to Poland and US dealings there. But on the issues of symbolic support, Israel and military ties, Obama’s trip revealed that his Poland policy is one more of style than of substance.
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Victoria Naselskaya: As history has shown, national security cannot be achieved by limiting minority rights and invoking terrorist tactics, as this serves to undermine people’s trust in the rule of law. Chechnya provides a useful example of how the use of counter-terrorism tactics accomplishes little more than civilian casualties or exacerbates the problem.
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Ece Ozkan: The new “great game” is going to be about natural gas, and the players are already set. This study elaborates on the current debate surrounding the security of natural gas routes and the desire of European officials to find alternatives to Russian backed pipeline projects.
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Editorial Team: We would like to thank you for voting in our recent survey on transatlantic priorities. Three key issues which Atlantic Community members would like to focus on in the year ahead are China, the debt threat and climate change. These results as well as your suggestions will guide our thematic focus in 2011.
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Benjamin Hanke: Germany’s economic interests are the key obstacle to a closer link between Russia and the West. Berlin is following an appeasement policy towards Moscow due to a need for energy. What Germany needs to do is to revive its European vision and spearhead a common EU approach to Moscow.
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Matthias Conrad: Russia’s top security priority is the need to adapt to socio‐economic challenges that will be aggravated by the effects of climate change. The West with Germany playing a leading role should engage in bilateral cooperation with Moscow and intensify energy interdependence.
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Philipp Johannes Große: The West needs to promote accountability and the rule of law in Russia. Focus should be on reaching out to the general population, not self-declared elites. Germany’s position should be firmly rooted in the West, not midway between Paris and Moscow.
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Memo 25: Focusing on the core mission, strengthening global partnerships, and launching broad public diplomacy initiatives are atlantic-community.org’s top three recommendations for NATO’s new Strategic Concept.
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Klaus Naumann: To achieve a nuclear free world a “No-First-Use” declaration should be collectively agreed. The US-Russia treaty on the reduction of strategic nuclear weapons should be followed by further measures to reduce the global nuclear stockpile to 2,000, or less than 10% of today’s number, by 2025.
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Editorial Team: 17 members of atlantic-community.org participated in a Skype Strategy Session to debate each others’ recommendations for NATO’s New Strategic Concept. A consensus has begun to form around three key issues, which will be featured in the next Atlantic Memo. But there is more work to be done. Please contribute to the working draft!
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Stephen Szabo: Europe is proving a foreign policy disappointment to the Obama Administration as it struggles to propound a clearer strategy toward Russia. Washington now recognises that only Berlin has the key to a new relationship with Moscow.
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Russian Youth Atlantic Treaty Association: Much can be gained from promoting European values in a region as diverse and conflict-ridden as the North Caucasus. A Russian youth organization is showing the way. An all-out public diplomacy effort is needed to reduce tensions in the region.
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Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters: Poland must redefine its relations with Russia. Continued military provocations and brinkmanship will only lead to Poland’s position worsening. While maintaining its security interests, Poland must embrace the bear. This notwithstanding, Poland should not negate its democratic ideals.
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Heinrich Bonnenberg and Jakob Schirmer: Because of its special relationship with Russia, Germany should take the lead in bringing about an Association Agreement between the EU and the Russia. Such an agreement would speed up the creation of a whole new Europe.
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Helen Turek: Since 2008’s Russia-Georgia war, Belarus has failed to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Belarus has already missed its Spring 2010 deadline to make a decision on the issue. The decision will determine whether Belarusian allegiance lies with Europe or with Russia.
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Memo 23: Altantic Community’s experts agreed in the Polar Politics week that military conflict over resources in the Arctic is unlikely. The Arctic Council and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea can ease tensions.
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Lev Voronkov: In regards to Russia’s influence in the region, no solution will be found to the Arctic challenges and disputes if the syndrome of the “cold war,” consisting of systematically labeling Russia as a disreputable power having predatory intentions in the Arctic, prevails.
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Robert W. Corell: Science and traditional/local knowledge can play invigorating roles in tackling these Arctic challenges relating to climate change - coupled with the impacts of globalization towards collaborative efforts within and among the Arctic states
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Klaus Dodds: The Arctic is in a state of interregnum. The opening of new shipping routes and possible resource exploitation are points of contention. While it is overblown to suggest inevitable geopolitical disorder, tensions will run high.
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Aleksandra Palagnyuk: The five-day war between Russia and Georgia in 2008 has reveiled the true importance of the Caucasus region to the EU as well other key international players. In this MA thesis I analyse the implications of the conflict for European foreign policy, especially with regards to EU energy security.
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Dirk Schuchardt: Germany’s main interest in NATO enlargement lies in creating a stable European security order, while preventing a confrontation with Russia. Therefore, from the German perspective, Ukraine and Georgia should not join the Alliance.
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Marc William Zedler: As Turkey is getting increasingly disillusioned with the EU, momentum could build up for the establishment of a Turkic Union. A Turkic Union would not only be beneficial to Turkey, as it could take up a leading role, but also to the EU, as such a union could serve to counter Russian dominance in the region.
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Joshua Posaner: Dmitri Medvedev’s second state of the nation address gave observers an indication of the complex relationship at the top of Russian politics. His different approach may appear to be shifting Russia away from ‘Putinism’ and towards reform, but this is all just smoke and mirrors.
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Sonja Davidovic: President Medvedev’s generous offers during his state visit to Serbia indicate a strengthening of bilateral relations between Russia and Serbia. This generosity should not blind Serbia on its path towards EU membership.
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Ivan Kalburov: Instead of paying both the economic and political cost for huge infrastructure projects the EU should liberalize its gas markets. By creating a community regulatory agency for imports, exports and national transport networks the EU would greatly enhance its energy security and international standing.
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Elizabeth Zolotukhina: Russia’s recent local elections have sprung up further accusations of electoral fraud. In order to truly gain a place at the top of world politics Medvedev and Putin must realize that democracy has to come first. Not until this happens will the Kremlin gain the international respect it craves.
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Jeffrey Mankoff: It is a priority of the USA to gain Russia’s support for a new round of UN sanctions against Iran. However, due to a number of economic, diplomatic, and strategic factors, it is very unlikely that Moscow will take meaningful steps against Tehran. Thus, the Obama Administration should circumvent Russia and find a way to solve the Iranian nuclear problem alone.
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Hans Kundnani: In a sense, the central question of Germany’s post war identity is of whether it constitutes a part of the West or not. As the historian Heinrich August Winkler tells it, Germany has completed its long westward journey. However, the reality is more complicated considering the increasing shift of the Federal Republic’s foreign policy towards Moscow.
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Donald K. Bandler and Jakub Kulhanek: A weak Russia constitutes a liability for the future as a scenario of political and economic upheaval becomes likely. Consequently, Moscow’s weakness domestically could then become a global crisis and pose a major threat to international peace and security.
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Claudine Lamond: The different role of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Russia and the United States will be a major challenge to their bilateral disarmament efforts. Whereas US TNWs are mainly political in nature, Russian tactical nuclear weapons are more fundamental to its military doctrine.
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Tom Z. Collina: The three prerequisites to stable nuclear reduction must be pursued consistently by both Russia and the US. Only after we achieve real success can we begin to judge whether Global Zero is truly possible. Our map to disarmament makes the beginning clear but our choices will define the path.
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Ingo Mannteufel: US President Barack Obama proclaimed a new start in Russian-American relations; now it is the Vice President’s job to initiate a new policy towards the governments of Ukraine and Georgia. Biden made it clear that the US is no longer willing to give these countries whatever it takes to counterbalance Russia.
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Andreas Umland: The Ukrainian Presidential elections scheduled for January 2010 are actually detrimental to the nation’s interests. Ukrainian democracy is weak, and the nation faces the fallout of the world financial crisis and Moscow’s continuously growing imperial appetite.
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Thomas Speckmann: The nuclear disarmament talks between Obama and Medvedev have been much celebrated, but the reality is not so rosy. Instead of a reduction in overall weapons, the talks signal a shift from nuclear to conventional weapons that could be much more dangerous in the long run as conventional rearmament could increase the number of bloody conflicts.
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Andrey Chubyk: Achieving energy security in the EU remains one of the most challenging tasks for EU politicians. The recent pipeline crisis in the Ukraine led to the temporary slow down of supply and underlines the urgency of the issue. To prevent further crises, the “European Initiative of Gas Transparency” (EIGT) must be adopted in the Eurasia region.
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Luca Ratti: Expansion of NATO membership into Eastern Europe has provoked Russia. NATO must attempt constructive dialogue with Russia to solve this problem. The future and continued success of NATO will depend on either including Russia, or ceasing its open membership policy.
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Editorial Team: Cohesive European policy towards Russia will only happen if frank debate about the nation’s desired role is expanded and deepened, according to experts from 11 European nations surveyed by Atlantic-Community.org.
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Editorial Team: In the third part of our survey, experts agree that the economic crisis is a small window of opportunity for enhanced Western-Russian cooperation, but not (yet) severe enough to make Moscow more amenable. The Kremlin might continue with its assertive foreign policy to deflect from increasing social tensions.
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Editorial Team: In the second part of our expert survey on relations between Russia and the West, respondents tell Atlantic-Community.org that they remain largely sceptical of the potential for a strategic partnership between Moscow and the EU and US, however they believe that there will be some limited cooperation.
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Editorial Team: Experts from Europe and the US polled by Atlantic-Community.org believe that despite current tensions, Russia and the West have more common than diverging interests. But decades of mistrust have clouded the Russian mindset, and Moscow can’t yet see all that they have in common with the West.
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Heiko Pääbo: Changing perceptions of the world order have influenced NATO’s open door policy. Russia believes that relations with NATO should be based on mutual respect and is reluctant to see the Alliance as a partner. NATO must maintain its shared values and consider Russia’s interests for a successful partnership.
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André Budick: Russia has an ongoing fear of being encircled and slowly pushed back by the West, making it difficult for other nations to have valuable relations with Moscow. Should the West even pursue a partnership with such a paranoid regime, even though the alternative is very unpleasant?
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Memo 17: Enlargement, Russian relations and internal cooperation will test NATO’s ability to compromise and strike bargains in the upcoming months and years. In return for greater decision-making power, European NATO member states must increase contributions to the Alliance.
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Prosper Thuysbaert: NATO requires assistance in order to facilitate democracy and peace across the world. The United Nations Security Council needs to be reformed and made more globally representative, and smaller regional organizations need to be set up and work alongside NATO to assist failing states.
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Janusz Bugajski: Russia’s priority will be to reinforce its national interests and exert influence over the foreign and security policies of disparate states in an attempt to distract from their domestic problems. This increases the importance for NATO and its allies to work not only with Russia, but also its border countries.
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Karsten Voigt: The transatlantic Alliance enters a modern era with different global challenges requiring new and innovative approaches. NATO must reassess its geopolitical position in addressing these issues and, if necessary, adapt accordingly.
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Elizabeth Zolotukhina: Recent events in Moldova have shown that Twitter can harness the power of disaffected individuals. The Moldovan approach to the protesters may have damaged its relations with other European states. For the Moldovan government, the key relationship remains with Russia.
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Editorial Team: Does one achievement stand out as a significant development at the infancy of the Obama presidency’s foreign policy, or have the early signs of progress been exaggerated out of context? Take part in our poll and vote what you think Obama’s greatest achievement has been.
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Constanze Stelzenmueller: Germany is a bridge between Russia and the West, and how Berlin chooses to deal with Moscow will set the tone for how the United States and the rest of Europe manage their own relationships with Russia.
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Andreas Umland: In Russia, a virulent form of anti-Americanism is becoming a constituent part of public opinion and foreign policy thinking. Should the current dominant trend in political discourse continue, in the future the world may witness more than a new cold war.
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Jens F. Laurson & George A. Pieler: In light of the recent gas crisis, the need for a common European energy policy has risen to the top of the EU agenda. The prompt building of the Nabucco pipeline as well as diversification of resources should be incorporated to assure independence from the Kremlin.
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Editorial Team: The new Democrat administration and Europe’s positive welcome of President Obama promise to revitalize the transatlantic relationship. We are inviting you to tell us which three topics you think the US and Europe should prioritize. Your preferences will determine our focus in 2009.
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Sonja Davidovic: Russia‘s shut down of its Balkan gas deliveries with the ink not yet dried on the Serbian Government/Gazprom deal indicates that vulnerable areas such as energy security must be reflected in a European strategy.
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Andreas Umland: It appears that in the near future, the European Union monitors will systematically observe the flow of Russian gas to Europe at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Thus, the EU seems to be helping to ease the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. Or is it?
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Jesse David Tatum: The Saakashvili administration’s biggest failure is an inability to represent a real change from the inept post-Soviet Georgian leadership of his predecessors.
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Marek Swierczynski: The EU proved to be indispensable in taming the recent gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine. However, it still lacks the means to stabilize crucial energy supplies and oversee political cohesion to protect its most vulnerable members.
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Tobias Wolny: Dealing with Russia should not be left to cold warriors and Russian well-wishers. Both Old and New Europe will benefit from replacing threatening language with confidence building measures in their approach to diplomatic relations with Russia.
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Thomas Speckmann: Nicolas Sarkozy governs according to his own agenda, to the disadvantage of Europe. His political style is similar to the unilateral approach of President Bush, condemned by so many Europeans. France cannot continue to give its longstanding ally, Germany, the cold shoulder. Sarkozy must cease his go-it-alone policies and become “Sarkozy l’Européen.”
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Interviews with YATA Delegates: Youth Atlantic Treaty Association delegates interviewed at their General Assembly held in Berlin in November 2008. The topics range from Russian relations to what Obama will ask Europe to do.
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Jeffrey Mankoff: Washington and London have proposed dropping the NATO MAPs for Georgia and Ukraine, favoring an open-ended development plan for both countries. Germany and France protest such unorthodoxy, but this more flexible approach might allow NATO to balance its Russian interests with eventual expansion.
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Matthew Yglesias: US relationships with EU countries have been marred not only by our disastrous military engagements but also by a lack of actual diplomacy from the Bush administration. A return to the hallmarks of a liberal society coupled with the simple measure of common courtesy would go a long way.
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Interview with Jackson Janes: The executive director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies tells Atlantic-community.org that Russia, energy security, climate change, Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the financial crisis are all pressing issues to be addressed jointly by Germany and the United States under an Obama administration.
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Sonja Davidovic: Unable to satisfy the energy demand of its heavy industry, which is further augmented by the rising consumption of the emerging middle class, China had to turn to international markets in search for oil and gas assets.
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Wolfgang Nowak: America is no longer up to shouldering the world’s crises. But who is going to take its place? And how do the new global powers imagine the future world order? Foresight, a project of the Alfred Herrhausen Society, asks thinkers and policy makers from the emerging and existing powers for their thoughts and proposals.
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Abbas Daiyar: The Afghan Foreign Minister’s statement opposing talks with insurgents emphasizes existing divisions within government circles in Afghanistan and abroad. The US and NATO must win the war in Afghanistan. Involving regional countries like Russia, China and India may prevent history from repeating itself.
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Marek Swierczynski: Russia’s naval power prevents NATO from effectively defending Baltic States. If the Alliance is serious about its commitments, it must strengthen its marine capabilities to match those of the Russian Baltic Fleet.
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Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: Russia’s authoritarian tendencies will continue to make it a threat to international security. Allowing Russia to define and act within a self-proclaimed sphere of interest will not make anyone safer.
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Mark Brzezinski: It is unlikely that there is a Kremlin “master plan” guiding Russia’s actions toward her neighbors - her actions are driven variably by ambition and nostalgia, confusion or misinterpretation, irritation or resentment. The West’s goal should be to make Russia understand that working together with the US and EU will make it more prosperous, secure and free.
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Francisco J. Ruiz: It is time to examine relations between Russia, the US, and the EU. With emerging global threats, there are areas in which these three can cooperate in defense and security. All three actors must change their policies enabling more collaboration on these issues.
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Memo 8: Atlantic Community members conclude that the EU, acting in coordination with the UN, is in the best position to negotiate a peaceful solution. The US, Russia, Georgia, NATO, and others must consider their future strategies carefully.
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Askarbek Erkinovich Mambetaliev: Many commentators are looking to Kyrgyzstan to express its “creed” about the Russia-Georgia conflict, considering Kyrgyzstan a key country in Central Asia. It seems no one wants to cross the “older brother” Russia. Therefore, President Kurmanbek Bakiev must act wisely in this situation.
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Hall Gardner: Moscow’s decision to recognize South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence has begun to backfire: Russia has been widely criticized for its actions and the events in Georgia could provoke nationalist claims for independence within Russia itself. Redefining the concept of “independence” might be a way out of the crisis.
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Colette Grace Mazzucelli: The US, acting in coordination with the EU, should address the crisis in Georgia with a strong humanitarian effort and a firm, yet non-isolating, stance toward Russia. As foreign policy concerns are compounded by domestic challenges, the next US administration must prudently tackle economic problems and re-define America’s role in world affairs.
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Christoph Bertram: No one should have been surprised at the way in which Russia has treated tiny and weak Georgia. What is surprising, however, is the eagerness with which many western governments continue to pretend that they can wield effective influence on Russia’s behavior in the Caucasus.
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Leonie Holthaus: The EU should serve as a mediator in the Russian-Georgian dispute. This role requires that the EU does not take sides with one conflicting party but rather balance its criticism. Even if a position like this is perceived as “hesitant” in the US press, it may contribute to resolving the conflict by diplomatic means.
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David Francis: The EU must take a strong yet cooperative stance toward Russia. The next US administration must regain its moral standing in international politics. Ultimately, Moscow must understand that its recent actions in Georgia are unacceptable.
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Leonie Holthaus: There is still a chance that diplomacy can contribute to resolving the Caucasus conflict. Given resurgent cold war vocabulary and the upcoming presidential elections in the US, it is up to the EU to function as a mediator between the conflicting parties.
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Andreas Umland: A justification for Russia’s recent invasion of Georgia was that it had to protect its citizens in South Ossetia. There is, however, a subtle difference between a state’s protection of its citizens living abroad, and its defense of citizens creating their own state within another country
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Ulf Gartzke: Mikhail Saakashvili’s reckless military gamble has unfortunately paid off and put him on a fast track to NATO membership. This stunning turnaround demonstrates the problems with the behavior of the Georgian leadership as well as with the West’s response to their actions.
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Matthew Derek Crosston: The West needs some serious balance in the way it analyzes and discusses the Georgian conflict. Academics, diplomats, and journalists have come forward with a united response to Ossetia: Russia is showing ‘imperialist ambitions’ and ‘a disproportionate reaction.’ This is ridiculous.
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Volodymyr Horbach: Consequences of the recent conflict in Georgia will be as serious and global as those after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ukraine’s position in this conflict is especially uncomfortable as it needs to preserve good neighborly relations with both Georgia and Russia. Kiev should not, therefore, take sides but take part in the peacekeeping mission.
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Marek Swierczynski: Even though technically Russia won the war, the victory will paradoxically weaken Russia’s position towards its western partners, especially the US. Military action against Georgia – however limited in scale – is a symbolic resurrection of Russia’s imperial ambitions and will thus strengthen transatlantic partnership.
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Wess Mitchell: The United States should announce its intention to transfer the entire Europe-based American military establishment to new locations in Central Europe, because many of the EU’s largest states are more interested in avoiding a rupture with Moscow than in protecting the vital interests of the Union’s eastern members.
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Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus: Moscow’s behavior in Georgia poses a direct challenge to European and international order. Georgia deserves our solidarity and support. Only strong transatlantic cooperation can put an end to this conflict and begin to repair the immense damage done.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The Caucasus conflict challenges the Atlantic community, because there is no consensus about resolving it. With regard to Russia, the European countries will have to decide if they want to follow their path of constructive engagement, or keep good ties with the US.
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Stefan Wolff: South Ossetia might well become Georgia’s Chechnya. The current escalation of military hostilities has put the likelihood of a sustainable settlement off even further. The European Union is the best-placed conflict manager in the South Caucasus.
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From the Editorial Team: Georgia and Russia are on the brink of a full-fledged war. How should the European Union, NATO and individual Western governments respond to the current crisis?
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Grigol Ubiria: NATO’s eastern enlargement is too often solely considered from the perspective of Russia’s right to defend its interests on its borders. Little or no attention has been paid to factors forcing former Soviet republics, particularly Georgia and Ukraine, to rush to join the alliance.
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Thomas Speckmann: Despite plans for a common foreign and security policy, bilateral agreements still largely prevail in Europe when it comes to energy policy. More than ever before, Europe needs a common energy foreign policy. Without this kind of special-interest politics, Europe will remain a tiger without teeth.
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Anna Wojnilko: Changing economic and political realities are forcing the G8 to rethink its goals, mandate, and membership. The debate on the shape of a potential G8 reform divides the political world. Should the G8 be enlarged to include new major international players or contracted to ensure effectiveness? We invite you to vote.
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Memo 7: The members of the Atlantic Community believe that Ukraine belongs to Europe. Ukraine needs to be integrated into Western alliances without undermining Western-Russian relations.
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David Francis: Germany is not only comfortable with Russia as an energy partner, it is comfortable with Russia as a strategic partner. This is at odds with the Bush administration, which views Russia with suspicion. Germany’s position has exposed an ideologically divide in Europe.
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Joerg Beige & Arianna de Mario: There are still cases of politically motivated trials that lack basic lawful principles in Russia. We should not be afraid to appear ‘russophobic’ and remind the Russian authorities that they are obliged to comply with international law standards.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: NATO’s nuclear posture is dated and needs to be reconsidered during next year’s review. If NATO withdraws sub-strategic nuclear weapons from Europe it can pursue a leverage strategy to persuade Russia to also eliminate its tactical nuclear weapons.
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Hall Gardner: NATO’s Bucharest Summit in April 2008 did not fully address the question of how to create a viable system of security for the volatile region of eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. As eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Caucasus are all riddled with secessionist and irredentist movements since Soviet collapse, it will require concerted US, EU, and Russian attention if a major crisis is to be averted.
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Heinrich Bonnenberg: To Russia, its current western border is a border that stands for loss and dishonor. This border is an open, bleeding wound on the Russian body. The security pact that the Russian president recently presented in Berlin could be helpful in overcoming historical grievances and bringing Western Europe and Russia closer together.
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Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy.
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Hall Gardner: A move towards Ukrainian NATO membership would strain relations with Russia and have serious consequences. In the short-term, Ukraine should remain “neutral”, while the EU introduces new, and expands existing confidence building economic and political areas of cooperation with Kiev and Moscow. In the long-term, Europe should seek to develop a confederal relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
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Jens F. Laurson and George A. Pieler: NATO is trying to expand its military wing to more countries, which used to be “the enemy,” in its effort to secure its future. However, Europe’s reliance on imported oil should be considered before alienating exporters like Russia in the attempt of reinventing NATO’s aging alliance.
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Michael T. Klare: When the Cold War ended, it was generally assumed that the US would henceforth enjoy unchallenged preponderance. But today, military superiority no longer constitutes the decisive determinant of global paramountcy: energy has acquired unexpectedly vast significance.
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Memo 6: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen.
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Andreas Umland: US “anti-Russian” rhetoric is not that particular. One can hear similar voices in both Western and Eastern Europe. In the unlikely case that Russia becomes a truly democratic country, much of what Andrei Tsygankov laments in his recent article in “The Moscow Times” would simply disappear.
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Richard G. Lugar: We must forge a more productive relationship with Russia. The absence of a collective energy security strategy and the lack of supply diversification will lead to greater fragmentation among European nations and across the Atlantic.
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Andrei Tsygankov: The US presidential candidates are increasingly playing the Russophobia card in their campaigns. In addressing Russia, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton have resorted to insulting President Vladimir Putin as a KGB spy who has no soul. Russophobia is truly back into fashion, as Senator Joseph Biden admitted last week.
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Andreas Umland: The rise of Dmitry Medvedev will mobilize the large anti-Western constituency in various sectors of the Russian elite. We may soon observe the emergence of another, different “tower” in the Russian state apparatus around which Moscow’s various nationalist politicians and publicists will unite.
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Andreas Umland: Sooner or later it is to be expected that Medvedev’s deeper political beliefs – his apparently liberal and democratic views – will come to the fore.
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Marek Swierczynski: Greece and Russia signed an agreement to build the southern branch of the South Stream natural gas pipeline. President Putin’s last victory hardens Gazprom’s grip on Europe and makes any energy diversification projects more difficult. Unless the EU looks at the map and acts.
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Andreas Umland: A conspirological form of anti-Americanism has become Russia’s new foreign policy doctrine. Paradoxically, the Russian elite, at the same time, wants to build closer relations with the US’s major partner in continental Europe - Germany.
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David Francis: Why is everyone outside of Germany worried about Nord Stream, while people in Germany seem okay with it? By looking at the United States, it’s apparent that it’s easier to ignore reliance on imported energy than it is to confront the problem.
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Daniel Korski & Richard Gowan: Away from the limelight and with other world events getting the media’s attention, the situation in Kosovo has been getting worse and worse. And it all started so well with the EU managing to get a consensus for its ESDP mission and two-thirds of EU states backing the province’s independence.
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Marek Swierczynski: Brazil and Russia want to build fighter jets and rockets under the new agreement signed last week. The potential “superpower of the South” may be on its way out of the western camp and can speed up the creation of the world’s new order. Bad news.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: Mistakes have been made on both the Russian and the Western sides. Russia should now be approached as an equal rather than looked down upon or scolded for non-democratic ways.
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Andreas Umland: Don’t overestimate Berlin’s statements concerning Russian interests in the former USSR
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Andreas Goldthau: The extent to which Russia’s resources are sustaining the country’s growth and influencing its foreign policy tends to be overstated. Having to adapt to domestic and geopolitical circumstances, and the rules of the global market considerably restricts the Kremlin’s room for maneuver.
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Stanley R. Sloan: Besides agreeing on devoting more military and non-military resources to the mission in Afghanistan, NATO leaders at the Bucharest Summit should start drafting a new strategic concept and a contemporary Atlantic Charter for the new American administration to tackle in 2009.
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Sascha Müller-Kraenner: The EU and the US have the responsibility as well as the financial and technological means to address the climate challenge. Yet their approach needs to be internationally orientated so that it also offers a platform to the new assertive voices of China, India, Russia and others.
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Maximilian Müngersdorff: Resource-based growth poses a risk to the broader economy. With oil prices hitting record highs, Russia, the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporter, has seen rapid growth. The question is, whether this growth is used to transform Russia into a diversified and sustainable economy.
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Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Wess Mitchell: I outline recent developments between the United States and Poland regarding the US missile defense program. Relations between Poland and Russia are likely to deteriorate and Tusk may have compromised himself by acting so decisively this early in his term.
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Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Alexander Bernhard Bitter: Missile defense for Europe is coterminous with NATO’s mission. The European policy of waiting for a new US administration is flawed, as the financial burden of the endeavor could shift heavily toward Europe.
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Alexandros Petersen: I conclude that Putin’s United Russia administration has framed Sunday’s polls as a referendum on his popularity, ensuring extra support for the party. For all of the president’s finagling, however, the only certainty is that his means of retaining power in Russia next year will confound the pundits’ predictions.
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Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: We need a new philosophy of deterrence against Iran. A tough containment policy, including Russia, and strong defense of Israel could bring about a changed security architecture in the Middle East that might finally include Tehran.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The US course of action on statehood for Kosovo will be a major test for the newly fortified transatlantic relationship.
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Alexandros Petersen: Russia’s recent Cold War-esque behavior is a wake-up call for the transatlantic alliance to overcome internal divisions and strengthen energy routes from the Caspian and Central Asia.
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James Andrew Lewis: I use the assault on Estonian computers to explain the difference between real terror and cyber mischief. Governments must take practical steps to minimize disruption in case of an attack.
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Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger: of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board interviews President George W. Bush just prior to the G8 Summit. The President speaks on US-Russia relations, domestic energy policy, and the criticism he has received from around the world.
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Alexander Rahr: The EU and Russia need more direct and frequent communication to avoid future conflict. Putin’s speech has set off a vicious circle: as Russia increasingly positions itself as an aggressor, the United States and Europe find further reason to ostracize Moscow. The worst the West could do would be to write off Russia in a return to containment policy.
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Günter Nooke: The EU should use stronger language towards Russia as regards the persistent erosion of human rights in the country. The unresolved politically motivated murders, discrimination of minorities and excessive police violence against peaceful protesters in the country cannot go unmentioned at today’s EU-Russia summit.
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Alexander Graf Lambsdorff: I find that Russia must be encouraged to participate in European democracy. The EU and US must realize that interdependence with Russia can offer benefits beyond status quo diplomacy.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe will soon be vulnerable to medium-range ballistic missiles. The time to act is now. Europe, Germany and NATO must agree on an anti-missile shield to protect against threats from Iran and others.
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Wess Mitchell: I recommend a security agreement with Prague now to set precedent for missile defense negotiations with other NATO members later, starting with Poland. Bilateral agreements with Eastern European countries would reinforce Washington’s strategic commitment to the region and would not undermine NATO in the least.
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Global Must Read Articles
Following the Rose Revolution and the 2004 Georgian presidential elections, Mikheil Saakashvili is known for his bold stance against Russian hegemony in the region. ++ But today, he is getting attention of a different kind. ++ His government is being charged for its suppression of political challengers at home. ++ The recent cyber attack allegations appear to have escalated the political battle
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Both Russia and China abhor the Salafist attack on the US embassy in Libya and both resent intervention to force “regime change”. ++ Yet, while China’s remarks lacked empathy, Russia showed solidarity so as to probe for new thinking in Washington. ++ Russia offers itself as a potential ally because it wants to be taken on equal footing. ++ Putin intends to signal to Obama that they could work
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The West’s free speech affirmation following Pussy Riot’s sentencing reveals its own hypocrisy. ++ The West, just like Putin, only supports free speech when it’s convenient. ++ If four white men stormed the East London Mosque and offensively performed a song mocking Islamic religious beliefs, they wouldn’t be considered martyrs. ++ Indeed, Pussy Riot shouldn’t have been jailed, but they aren’t
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With the end of the Cold War, the justification for NATO expansion is gone and the new members bring more costs than benefits. ++ Georgia’s inclusion into NATO is a dangerous liability for the US. ++ It is a geopolitically aggressive move and can provoke nuclear confrontation with Russia over matters of little importance to the US. ++ Furthermore, Saakashvili’s government does not act
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With declining output from onshore fields, Russia’s oil industry is at a new crossroad. ++ Russia needs foreign partners, to stimulate competition and help develop offshore fields in its Arctic region. ++ Given that Putin loves politics more than he loves Russia and oil, it is more likely that he will want energy to stay under Kremlin control. ++ Russia will probably follow a suboptimal
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When three top officials in Assad’s regime were killed in a bombing attack, Russia, with behavior similar to the old Soviet Union, claimed that the West was somehow behind it. ++ When the UNSC votes on whether to extend the oversight of a peace plan, the US and other Western nations will only support the resolution if it also calls for enforceable sanctions should Assad renege. ++ Rather than
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Russia will not change its position on Syria unless the conflict’s internal dynamics shift. ++ Moscow does not view Syria as Middle Eastern geopolitics. ++ Rather Russia sees it as about who defines the world order. ++ Moscow consistently opposes military force without a clear UNSC mandate and rejects regime change. ++ Russians are also much less optimistic about the Arab Spring. ++ For these
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Rescuing Syria will require a “Yemen-style” solution by granting impunity to Assad, his family and top aides, which quite possibly will end the bloodshed in the country. ++ It must be made clear to Assad that he cannot win militarily, and that there is an alternative to fighting to the end - a safe way out. ++ Moscow must play a pivotal role in this process. ++ Damascus is aware
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Only hours after reassuming the presidency this month, Vladimir Putin called on the United States to provide “firm guarantees” that its missile-defense system in Europe will not be targeted against Russia. ++ President Obama was unable to offer a “legally binding” guarantee, but was more than willing to provide a political assurance. ++ Any such assurance will be a mistake and violate America’s
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Arab-Israeli tensions are being played out by citizen hacktivists on both sides. ++ If a hacker causes real physical damage to critical systems it could quickly involve governments in the real world. ++ There is no operations center that a nation can call to compel another nation’s citizens to stop online attacks. ++ Washington and Moscow are beginning to explore using their direct channels to
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Beijing is dismissive of Western interests in the UN, prioritizing stability, economic benefit and non-interference. ++ Russia is Syria’s largest arms supplier and is attempting to demonstrate an alternative to Western “belligerence”. ++ Domestically, Putin fears bloodshed if public resistance does not subside when he returns to power. ++ The West can do little in Syria since Assad has been
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A New Delhi based think tank has studied the term “strategic partnership” through India’s agreements. ++ India has signed over a dozen partnership agreements in the last decade ++ The Russia-India partnership was rated the most valuable overall; trade relations with the US hold the most potential. ++ The benefits are threefold: political-diplomatic ties, defense ties, and economic relations. ++
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Russia’s 18-year quest to become a member of the WTO may finally be drawing to a close by the end of this year, as Georgia gave its consent under US and EU pressure. ++ The biggest barrier to admission into the WTO, however, lies within Russia in the face of Vladimir Putin. ++ In the past, Putin has consistently thwarted the negotiation process in its final stages. ++ While Russian exporters
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The West should not expect any major changes in Russian foreign policy upon Putin’s return to the Kremlin. ++ Russia will continue to enforce its present agreements and maintain a pragmatic partnership with the US and Europe. ++ Putin’s rhetoric may resonate with Soviet nostalgia, but Russia will remain committed to expanding commercial ties with the West. ++ The upcoming power shuffle will not
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Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency removes the illusion of any real political competition in Russia. ++ As president Putin is likely to aggravate relations with Russia’s neighbors and do little to tackle rampant corruption domestically. ++ This could be a major setback to Russian-American relations, which appeared to have improved slightly during Medvedev’s tenure. ++ The US and Europe
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Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency removes the illusion of any real political competition in Russia. ++ As president Putin is likely to aggravate relations with Russia’s neighbors and do little to tackle rampant corruption domestically. ++ This could be a major setback to Russian-American relations, which appeared to have improved slightly during Medvedev’s tenure. ++ The US and Europe
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Ukraine has come a long way from its Soviet legacy. Now, Kiev sets its sights on EU membership. ++ With an educated labor force and a “rich foundation in science and technology” along with its energy diversification capabilities and some of the world’s most fertile soil, Ukraine is positioned to play a prosperous role in the integrated European economy. ++ Kiev must still
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The US is no longer the world’s sole superpower, but it can prevent its relative decline from becoming absolute. ++ Rather than insisting on American preeminence by “vainly” pouring billions into foreign wars, the US should negotiate boundaries on its use of force, establish norms in the global competition for resources, curb the international arms trade, and “focus increased
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Russia and the US have disagreed on several issues recently, such as the US’ imposition of travel restrictions on some Russian officials in response to a controversial human rights case, and by a US Senate resolution urging Russia to “withdraw troops from Georgia’s breakaway regions”. ++ But both states are similarly infuriated by credit rating agencies. ++ The “real tragedy” is that in the past,
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Ukraine possesses massive agricultural and manufacturing potential, and Europe should support Kiev’s movement toward the EU. ++ But the trial of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, an opponent of President Viktor Yanukovich, is a corrupt political sideshow threatening to derail efforts at reform. ++ An EU association agreement with Ukraine would be both a model for the region and a
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When new Arab leaders in Egypt and Tunisia take office, they ought to learn from Russia’s corruption-plagued transition from the USSR. ++ They can avoid a similar fate by initiating the transparent privatization of state economic property, the modernization of commercial laws, and the opening of nearly every sector to foreign investment. ++ The economic and political vitality of the Arab
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Drawing from the results of Lisbon summit, Russia’s cooperation with NATO on missile defense has to be based on equal participation and common pan-European security. ++ This initiative is perceived by the Kremlin as a step towards strategic partnership with NATO. ++ To avoid mutual suspicions, European missile defense should be deployed in the southern part of the continent. ++
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Annette Heuser is executive director of the Bertelsmann Foundation Washington DC, a private, nonpartisan operating foundation, working to promote and strengthen transatlantic cooperation. Before launching the Bertelsman
Foundation in Washington DC, Ms. Heuser served in the corporate sector as Vice President of
International Relations at Bertelsmann AG in Guetersloh, Germany, and as the
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The arrest of opposition figures Limonov and former Russian Prime Minister Nimzov reveal the government’s nervousness with regard to the threat posed by the opposition to its power. ++ Falling fossil fuel prices are putting the Putin system under pressure. ++ The government realizes that the second half of 2011 is set to remind Russians most unfortunately of the early 1990s with high prices
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EU national rivalries are a standing invitation for any major world power to divide and rule. ++ In relation to China and Russia, EU member states want the EU’s collective stance to be tougher than their own individual ones. ++ Yet, the future of the planet depends on Europe having a constructive and stable relationship with the rising East. ++ Even if things go well, what Europeans achieve in
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Lord Ismay, NATO’S first General Secretary, once said that the goal of the alliance was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” In today’s multipolar word, he would have had to rephrase this imperative: For Europe’s security, it will be essential to keep the EU united, Russia post-imperialist, and Turkey European. After all, the Americans
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The dispute over the Kurile Islands has been blown way out of proportion recently. ++ Russian diplomats are not too concerned about Tokyo’s recall of its ambassador from Moscow. ++ Much of the outcry over President Medvedev’s visit to the islands is due to domestic Japanese politics. ++ The ruling party is using the incident to shore up its patriotic credentials. ++ Moreover, economic
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1990s dreams of a unipolar European Order have failed, as hopes of a post-modern system without a balance of power have proven to be untrue. ++ Russia calls openly for a new security architecture. ++ Frustrated with EU membership talks, Turkey is pursuing its own foreign policy. ++ The US has its hands full and is no more a full-time European power. ++ The goal now should be to create a
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Russians today are sympathetic to the French move to expel the gypsies. ++ “Being a nationalist is fashionable now, even though it was considered inappropriate behavior for a decent fellow not that long ago.” ++ What we are witnessing in Europe today is a new form of Apartheid. ++ Russians for example are ready to die to keep the North Caucasus in the Russian Federation, but do not
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Only rarely does Russia witness open discord within the ruling party, as it does now over the President’s decision to rename the despised Russian “miliz.” ++ Policemen are derogatively but popularly referred to as “menti.” ++ Medvedev wants the service called “the police” in the hope that, in the popular imagination, the word will be associated with the
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Moscow has stationed S-300 air defense missile systems in Abkhazia and similar devices in South Ossetia in a curious move, as Georgia possesses no air force. ++ Instead, the systems are geared toward blocking Georgian airspace. ++ The Russian move is intended as a message to Washington, by demonstrating air interdiction capabilities that could hamper its ability to use supply routes into Central
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In the past, the Kremlin has discredited the idea of global warming as international media hype. ++ Russia’s ruling elite has regarded the climate debate as nothing more than “an invention of the West to bring Russia to its knees.” ++ The current heat wave forces Russia’s rulers to rethink. ++ Even President Medvedev now admits that a link between global warming and the
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Peter the Great should inspire the search for funds to help modernize Russia. ++ The Tsar outlawed the wearing of beards and taxed those of his subjects who refused to obey. ++ To fight corruption in Russia’s notorious bureaucracy, a 50 percent tax should be applied to the income of civil servants’ family members. ++ Parliamentarians should pay an annual “tax on [their] useless
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Following the New START Treaty with the United States, the “Shkval” torpedo is more important than ever to Russian naval defense. ++ Key components are manufactured in Kyrgyzstan, where control over the factory has become an important bargaining chip of interim President Otunbayeva’s dealings with Moscow. ++ Yet the Kyrgyz are dragging their feet. ++ This may well be due to Chinese efforts, since
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North America, Europe, and Russia should work together to create a Euro-Atlantic security system based on trilateral missile-defense cooperation. ++ Political rather than technical obstacles have been the main stumbling blocks. ++ The design and implementation of the new security architecture must be based on a joint assessment of threats and shared equally by the three partners. ++ This moment
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Dmitri Medvedev has launched a charm offensive to secure American acquiescence in Russia’s drive to deepen its integration with Europe. ++ By supporting further sanctions against Iran and the new START, Russia has shown good faith in pushing the reset button on its foreign policy with the US. ++ Hawks in the US Senate remain stuck in a Cold War mentality and have rejected Russia’s
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The Russian Army is fighting its record of abuse and lack of finances in vein. ++ The Army will not become professional, because there is no money to make professional service attractive. ++ “The present regime’s priority is… the secret services and oligarchs.” ++ In striking contrast to the Army, the various secret services managed “to increase their income
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In Vladivostok, Russian officialdom scored a victory over the partisan movement that may yet turn into defeat. ++ While successful against the uprising in the Primorski federal region, local officials have done little “to determine the motives behind the unexplainable brutality and hatred” that recently erupted. ++ In Ussuriysk, officials liquidated a bandit group whose members call
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It is no coincidence that the US targets 13% of its stimulus package at innovation. ++ Such tactics help the West, especially the US and Europe, “to fortify their domination of the world.” ++ Russia spends only 2% of its GDP on education and science. ++ The R&D activities of the private sector are key. Private enterprise is better suited to promoting innovation than tedious
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In the aftermath of the Moscow Metro attacks, the situation in the supposed homeland of the attackers continues to escalate. ++ The 150 Daghestani fighters hiding out in the forests - the so-called “forest brotherhood” - receive much of their “financing from Arab and Western sources… via Arab bank subsidiaries in Azerbaijan.” ++ The local clans employ the forest brotherhood in their struggle to
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Russian authorities dispersed an opposition rally in defense of the right to free assembly in Moscow yesterday. ++ Ironically, the protest meeting had been inspired by recent remarks of Premier Putin, which “many citizens had interpreted too enthusiastically” to signify a lessening of his hard stance on rallies. ++ Putin’s statements instead were meant “to
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Syria will strive “to hang Israel around the America’s neck.”++ Given the failure of talks with the US, Syria fears an imminent conflict with Israel. Hence improved relations with Russia are crucial for Syria, given Moscow’s veto power on the UN Security Council. ++ While the Russians wish to improve their standing in the Middle East by courting former Soviet allies
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The death of many Polish government officials, including the President, has raised global awareness of the Russian massacre of 22,000 Polish troops 70 years ago. ++ This truth is the first step towards genuine reconciliation between the neighbors. ++ Russia is in mourning alongside Poland. ++ “Russia has opened its heart to Poland, but has also opened its heart to itself: to its own history
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The time has finally come to invite Russia to join NATO. ++ “Trans-Atlantic security needs have changed fundamentally in the last two decades. The East-West confrontation has ended, and Moscow now shares many interests with NATO.” ++ In this context, the inclusion of Russia in the organization would mark the “logical consummation” of a Euro-Atlantic security order of which
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At wintertime, the relentless Russian blackmail over energy, especially gas, starts all over again. ++ The European Union should ensure warmer relations with Russia in more fields other than gas to ease up tension. ++ European efforts are being made on diversification both in gas routes with the Nabucco pipeline and in renewable resources such as solar energy. ++ But they will not hide the main
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The New Delhi-Moscow relationship has reached a high with the signing of a nuclear agreement “essentially [enabling] India to start positioning its civilian nuclear sectors as a buyer’s market.” ++ Companies in the West should lobby their governments to ensure smooth nuclear trade with India. ++ Now that Washington and Moscow are moving closer, New Delhi no longer has to choose between them, but
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France and Russia are finalizing the sale of an amphibious assault ship, which should catch the attention of every NATO ally. ++ With a ship like the Mistral, Russia’s August campaign against Georgia could have been accomplished in “40 minutes, not 26 hours.” ++ Moscow’s aim is not to challenge American naval dominance, rather to counter NATO’s eastward enlargement. ++ This short-sighted
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Differences between the United States and the Russian Federation since the end of the Cold War have bogged down the nuclear disarmament process. Since 96% of all nuclear weapons remain in the hands of the former adversaries, Washington and Moscow must once again take the lead in opposing nuclear proliferation worldwide. The largely bilateral disarmament process to date must be expanded
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From arms reduction to Afghanistan to Iran, it is in Washington’s best interest to ensure cooperation with Moscow on a wide range of issues. Policy-makers in Washington now have to choose between different options for dealing with Moscow: rely on either the EU or on Germany as a focal point for dealing with the Russians, or conduct relations bilaterally.
Washington, however, is unlikely to
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Reactions by Moscow and Tbilisi to the EU report on the Russian-Georgian War demonstrate how tense the situation in the Caucasus remains. The report blamed the war on the Georgians, who opened hostilities against the South Ossetians. However, it also criticized Russia for using inappropriate force in response to Georgian provocations. What the report failed to mention was that the repercussions
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Contrary to current reports, the missile defense system in Eastern Europe will be strengthened and not scrapped. ++ The previous proposal would have been delayed until 2017 whilst the current one will see an active defense from the Iranian threat ready by 2011. ++ Russia’s attitude and possible reaction played no part in the decision making process. ++ Europe will be protected with better
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The Kremlin’s strategy has not brought peace to the Caucasus. ++ Russia’s failure can be blamed on Vladimir Putin’s cynical deals with influential clans in the North Caucasus, the elimination of democratic procedures and the recognition of the independence of breakaway Georgian republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia. ++ The Kremlin has to learn that the ongoing problems in the Caucasus
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At present, the power struggle in Kabul is reaching its apex. ++ After years of US hegemony, now, Russia, Iran and China push for influence in Afghanistan. ++ Both, Kabul and Washington depend on Moscow’s benevolence in terms of arms trade and NATO deployment. ++ Conversely, Iran aims to curb the US military threat. ++ “As for China…there are two imperatives: controlling a
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The Turkish-Russian relationship has improved immensely since Turkey’s setback in its EU accession plans. ++ Despite supporting Europe’s Nabucco pipeline project Ankara also cooperates with Russia over gas supplies. ++ “If Turkey still had hopes for EU membership, it probably would have reacted differently” to Russia’s interest. ++ There is no reason for Ankara to coordinate its
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Through investment in infrastructure projects China is quickly gaining influence in Russia’s Far East and Central Asia. ++ Beijing lent $25billion to Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft and pipeline manufacturer Transneft in order to complete ESPO oil pipeline. ++ “Although the direct cause of this move is the global economic crisis, the root cause is the mismanagement of the
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One year after the Russian invasion, Georgia continues to draw nearer to its western allies. ++ “The Kremlin is forced to discover that few points of its agenda have succeeded.” ++ Despite the Georgia peace plan signed by President Medvedev, Russian troops have not retreated. ++ Moscow must realize that new western ideals do not pose a threat to the Kremlin. ++ The Georgian
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President Obama’s visit to Moscow must not be taken as a serious reset with Russia. ++ It “was a mix of visionary kitsch, caviar and feckless horse-trading.” ++ Russian-American agreements made this week are short sighted. ++ Obama failed to show support to the Kremlin’s opponents and understated US merits during the fight against Soviet communism. ++ His “packaging and marketing skills” detract
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Only a few years ago, calls for a world without nuclear
weapons were considered mere academic wishful thinking. But today US security
policy experts are themselves advocating full nuclear disarmament, amongst them
Henry Kissinger and William Perry. And beginning with President Obama’s speech
in Prague, if not before, many of these calls for disarmament have become part
of official US
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President Obama’s visit to Moscow is supposed to foster “a more substantive relationship with Russia” - particularly on Iran’s atomic ambitions, Afghanistan and a replacement arms treaty - but Russia hardly looks “inclined to forge a partnership, except on its own terms.” ++ The US must remember its own aims - to expand freedom in Eurasia - and not pander to Putin.
++ President Obama’s
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The West can’t ignore Russia’s belligerent moves towards Georgia - warning signs that Russia is not ready for the relationship we seek. ++ “Extensive fighting could
erupt again” and Russia may be preparing to install a puppet regime. ++ While Russia is strategically more important, it is not a reliable partner: its brutish stands show it does not share Western values, like transparency,
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In times of international competition for energy resources and strategic partners, the US must move more quickly to embrace a relationship with Turkmenistan and Belarus. ++ China is constructing a gas pipeline to Turkmenistan. ++ Moscow aims to include Belarus in a military pact. ++ “The longer the West stays on the sidelines […] the harder it will be to achieve anything in the region.” ++
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In the face of retreating OSCE peacekeepers, a second war in Georgia becomes possible. ++ Russia’s demand that the OSCE leave Georgia comes at the same time as it states Georgia is preparing for war. ++ Since last year, Moscow has claimed the last conflict was triggered by Georgian attacks. ++ “Russia would be crazy to start a new war.” ++ “Unfortunately, it was just such madness that prompted
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Russia has vetoed an extension of the UN mission in the Georgian breakaway zone of Abkhazia. ++ All international monitoring organizations have left Abkhazia. ++ “Moscow clearly wants to finish what it started… Georgia had been long in the planning… [and Russia’s involvement there] intended to deal a mortal blow to what Moscow saw as Western encroachment in its backyard.” ++ It is up to
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The meeting of the six-nation Shanghai Co-operation Organisation this week will discuss the creation of a new type of financial institution that will challenge the dominance of US-style free markets. ++ This is an opportunity for China, Russia and India to “build an increasingly multipolar world order.” ++ These countries argue that the root of the global financial crisis is that the US makes too
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The US and the EU must take a coordinated approach when trying to bring around reform in “Europe’s last dictatorship,” Belarus, which will be a slow and tough process. ++ The US should consider lifting sanctions only on the basis of strict conditionality. ++ Belarus must be pressured to have more independent media, to investigate the cases of missing dissidents, and to end the practice of jailing
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The Obama Administration must get rid of a “cold war fossil” - the Jackson-Vanik amendment - which makes normal trade relations with Russia contingent on free emigration. ++ Russia has allowed such freedom for years, but the law remains
in force despite attempts by former Presidents Clinton and Bush to get rid of it. ++ Obama will struggle to remove it too. ++ Congress retains it as leverage for
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The launch of NATO military exercises in Georgia – the latest effort in Tbilisi’s campaign for membership of the alliance - has angered Russia. ++ Georgia believes NATO is pivotal to its security and independence, but Russia has labelled the exercises as “dangerous” and “provocative”. ++ Many Georgians were disappointed NATO has not yet granted the country
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The US must improve its relationship with Russia as well as supporting the fledgling democracies on its border. ++ Introducing a free-trade agreement with Georgia is a good first step and will not hurt Washington-Moscow relations. ++ Georgia needs help to weather the economic crisis and its best bet is through increased trade and investment. ++ Trade talks would provide impetus for economic and
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A switch is occurring in US-Polish relations. ++ With two wars and the unpopular missile defense proposal, the US is increasingly seen as an uncomfortable, rather than essential security partner. ++ Public opinion is turning to the more cozy neighbor, the EU. ++ Still, this may very well be the strength of new relations with the US, if Poland learns to market its agenda to resonate with the
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On April 4 the Atlantic Alliance will celebrate its 60th birthday. ++ An apt occasion to review its tasks and raison d’etre with a changed décor and security challenges. ++ There are several issues to tackle. ++ It is clear is that Article 5 should remain at the core of NATO and new tasks and memberships should only take place if accompanied by an effective increase in the security
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This year holds promise for the Russia-US bilateral relation. ++ The Russian President has argued Russia and the US should attend the G20 and try “establish universal rules and disciplines that would apply to all parties without exception […] and introduce a world supranational reserve currency” supervised from the IMF. ++ He further added that it is the duty of Russia and the US
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Obama stated that he would restart talks on arms controls. ++ The upcoming meeting between Obama and Medvedev on April 1st offers an opportunity to negotiate a successor to START I. ++ Similarly, Obama’s next moves should be to eliminate US nuclear weapons in Europe and push for the ratification of the CTBT. ++ The Cold War is long gone and the US and Russia should end Cold War attitudes
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India’s reliance on Russia for defense equipment is largely ineffective and increasingly dangerous. ++ The entire Russian fleet of MiG-29 is seen to suffer structural defects and adds to the fact that “Russia’s defense manufacturing base is facing shortfalls in capabilities and capacities.” ++ This effects India in terms of missed deadlines, greater expense and harms
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While a US victory in Afghanistan would benefit Russia in terms of controlling the spread of Islamists in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Russia needs to be prepared for potential failure. ++ Given that the potential of a Russian led military force is unlikely, the back up plan is to do it the “Chechnya” way; establish a “sphere of influence” in North Afghanistan given
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Secretary of State Clinton’s European trip set out the seriousness of the Obama administration’s commitment and marked a new era of transatlantic relations. ++ The tête à tête between Clinton and Lavrov — symbolized by a button representing the resetting of soured relations given to the Russian Foreign Minister — confirmed that both countries want to cooperate on the Iranian,
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The small glimpse of hope of potential Russian-US cooperation on curtailing Iran’s nuclear plans disappeared after an unsuccessful meeting between Russia and the US. ++ Obama stated that Russia would not determine America’s missile defense plans. ++ Although a setback, the statement is not without purpose; if not said Russia would have achieved its aim of creating a wedge between
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The gas war has highlighted the urgency of building the Nabucco pipeline. ++ This is good news for Baku as its role in the energy world is likely to increase drastically: it would provide the infrastructure for transporting gas westwards. ++ Yet, the guarantee for success is not certain: Nabucco is not an antidote against energy disputes with Russia as it will also rely on gas from Central Asian
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Hit hard by the financial crisis, now is no time for Russia to make enemies and the Kremlin should be content that Obama opted for an extended-hand diplomacy. ++ Yet, “even if Medvedev goes for detente, he may not be able to deliver it: “policy is still dictated by Putin who is eager to convince the world that Russia is back. ++ Thus, Obama’s openness is a sign of hope but also of great
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A lot has happened recently, but the event which still steals the thunder is the election of President Obama and the new foreign policy he has designed for the US. ++ The Munich Security Conference offers confirmation; Biden came to Europe and promised that the US will “listen” and “engage” Europe and also attempt to improve relations with Russia. ++ But in promising a
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Biden’s comment at the Security Conference in Munich regarding the need for expert opinion prior to deploying defense missiles in Eastern Europe has raised fear in the Czech Republic. ++ “It’s beginning to look as though the Americans were taking us for a ride. Now that there’s a new driver in the White House, they think they can just drop us off at the curb.”++ Retreating on the missile
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The Russian ambassador to Kiev has stated that Russian influence in the region is diminishing due to changed attitudes within the country and the large US presence there. ++ While the Obama administration will continue to lure Ukraine to the US — through the provision of free education for instance — Russia has not “learned” the rules of the American game and is thus losing
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The Munich Conference on Security Policy needs renewal. ++ In 2007 Putin declared the end of unipolarity here. ++ This year NATO seeks discreet dialog with Russia, but the focus will be on the seating of US and Iranian delegations. ++ The first contact between them for three decades may take place over dinner. ++ “You only see old men there,” says a female NATO diplomat. ++ The conference
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A recent Taliban bridge bombing in Pakistan which cut off supply lines to NATO forces in Afghanistan has once again highlighted the vulnerability of passing through Pakistan. ++The US is, however, running out of luring alternatives; considering Russia as a substitute would require the US “to pledge that it will respect the Russian sphere of influence in the former USSR,” a guarantee Obama is
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The recent gas crisis is remarkably reminiscent of the Cold War in the sense of fear, insecurity and intimidation which it evoked. ++ Inciting such feelings in one’s adversaries is the typical obsession of a tyrannical regime. ++ Putin and Medvedev, presiding over a state which is at face value normal, are betraying the signs of such an obsession. ++ Modern-day Russians should steer well
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The fragility of Putin’s Russia has been exposed by the financial crisis, making the need for new rules of engagement between it and the West all the more necessary. ++ Anti-westernism is rife and the West has surely played its part in this. ++ Economic growth under Putin has also created a confused correlation between anti-westernism and success. ++ But the harsh response from the EU to
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Improving relations with Iran might not be as smooth as expected for Obama. ++ Under Russia’s new security strategy, to be adopted end of February, Russia is on the way to making Iran its new strategic partner. ++ An increase in the number of nuclear engineers being sent to Tehran to work with Iranians is one of several indicators of the rapprochement. ++ This may well remove any incentive for
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Prior to his trip to the US, German FM Steinmeier has stated that he wants to start a new disarmament initiative, a cornerstone of the Obama administration. ++ Russia should also be addressed and the NATO-Russia Council revitalized, as dialogue is the only constructive approach in tense times. ++ As for Iran, the unprecedented chance the US government offers to discuss the nuclear program with
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Last year
125 vessels were attacked by Somali pirates in the Gulf of
Aden, one third of which were successfully boarded. Among them was
a hijacked Saudi super tanker laden with oil and a Ukrainian ship carrying 33
Russian armoured vehicles. Both incidents intensified international concern
over the possible capture of more “sensitive cargo,” such as radioactive
material The Somali pirates
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President Chavez and PM Putin are “enjoying a burgeoning friendship,” finding common ground in their oppression of dissidents and the violent crime ruling their cities. ++ Their regimes do little to tackle the pervasive murder of political objectors and journalists; instead, the citizenry is faced with “a leviathan cloaked in the misappropriated vocabulary of democracy.”
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The two-week gas war between Ukraine and Russia was only partly about money. ++ Russia wanted to split the Ukrainian leadership, where support for leader President Yushchenko has fallen to 5%. ++ PM Tymoshenko has also been weakened, as she faces responsibility for the financial downturn. ++ President Putin miscalculated: Russian pressure has unified pro-western Ukrainians, as the EU refused to
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Rapid triumph after the South Ossetian August war and oil barrel prices reaching the stars seem to be no more than distant memories for the Kremlin. ++ The financial crisis has hit Russia hard: aside from making oil prices fall under $40 in December, it has put the entire Putin system on the edge of collapse. ++ Despite no longer being President, PM Putin is still the big man of the country;
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The Great Depression hindered the democratic progress; the current crisis could advance it. ++ Authoritarian countries like China, Russia, Venezuela and Iran will suffer more than democratic competitors. ++ Political legitimacy based on “delivering the economic goods” is weaker than one based on political freedom and the capacity to change governments without changing regime. ++ Democracies may
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The Russia-Ukraine gas supply conflict was heightened following Russia’s decision to further reduce gas supplies as a response to Ukraine “stealing” gas aimed for European clients. ++ Ever since the end of the 2005 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, Russia has been using its gas resources as a political weapon. ++ The policy decision will bring Europe under strain, but the cost for
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We “wanted Russia to be a market economy, but Russia never asked how.” ++ Gazprom is like the East India Company, from which market economies grew. ++ Other sources are unreliable; China, Japan and India look to Russia for gas. ++ While the EU builds pipelines to pass unreliable ex-communist states, Russia builds east - and southwards. ++ Gazprom’s hard game is market economy and it refuses to
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Barack Obama, financial crisis, resurgent Russia, G20, Western decline, climate change - in the season of global predictions, current discourse is driven by these and other such catchwords. ++ Yet, predictions from December 2007 were of little value: none predicted the financial collapse, none an Obama victory, nor any vastly fluctuating oil prices or governments’ failure to keep pace with global
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NATO has become “a military alliance without any political clout” and is in the midst of an identity crisis. ++ The campaign in Afghanistan is suffering because of NATO’s lack of a political voice and a lack of cohesion between Brits and Americans ++ Its vacillation over granting MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia is further evidence of its
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A battle over ex-Soviet republics is taking place between Brussels and Moscow. ++ This quarrel is the subtext to the laborious negotiations over Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO and the EU. ++ The EU has shown a clear desire for greater “association” with its neighbors but refuses to start real talks for fear of angering Russia. ++ A European presence in the region is necessary to
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In the 1990’s Asia was considered the pioneer in democratic renewal. Out of Asia spread a democratic wave from southern Europe through Latin America and into Africa. In recent times, however, democratization in Asia has experienced significant set-backs. Quasi-authoritarian regimes in Sri Lanka, Cambodia, and the Philippines set the military against political opposition and profit from declared
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The US sphere of influence can’t extend from Iraq to Georgia. ++ “Historically, peace is maintained when smaller states show restraint in the face of large neighbors.” ++ “Finlandization,” or bowing towards Moscow, used to be an insult during the Cold War. ++ However, Finland remained independent. ++ Saakashvili should take tips from that. ++ As “the old monster” Stalin said apologetically
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NATO ministers meet this week to discuss a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine. ++ “Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is an aspiration to become part of the most effective system of collective security and to share joint responsibility for common space.” ++ Despite protest from Russia, Ukraine must be accepted as a vital ally - peacekeeping missions in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and
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In the past, the European right reliably took a hard-line stance against Russian expansionism, with the left playing the role of apologists. ++ “Today, there has been an odd reversal,” with the likes of Merkel, Berlusconi, and Sarkozy – Europe’s right – acting as stalwarts for Russia (the latter having done a phenomenal job of irking Eastern Europe in the process).
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The election of Obama could have marked the beginning of improved Russian-US relations, but the “new cold war” will continue. ++ Anti-American sentiment is the result of Russia’s perceived security threats and is fuelled by official propaganda. ++ The next President should demonstrate America’s willingness to support Eastern Europe’s democracies, but he should also
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Western oriented, business friendly, and governed by smart, young people, Georgia is a country on the rise. ++ NATO should not be her final resting place, though. ++ Georgia doesn’t meet NATO requirements for full control of its territory and a closer look reveals its media is like Russia’s: state run and laden with propaganda. ++ “Georgia’s future is economic
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The Bush administration destroyed American goodwill abroad. ++ Obama is a welcome change, but there are limits to what “soft power” can achieve. ++ White House glamour will be useless if Asia stops buying US treasury bonds. ++ As the IMF slips out of American hands, so does world economic leadership and we return to a multi-polar world. ++ Soft power counts for little without economic backing,
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Great challenges await the 44th US president, especially economic ones. The Brookings Institution lists the ten most important:
Restoring Financial Stability: Strengthening the global financial system is a priority alongside the task of defeating the current financial market crisis. Such a strengthening includes increased national regulation and decreased dependence on foreign credit.
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On Friday the EU and Russia met to discuss the state of economic cooperation. ++ Russian troops still remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, hindering Georgians from returning home. ++ Upcoming talks between Russia and Georgia do not seem promising. ++ By removing sanctions from Russia, the EU has put itself into an inferior position. ++ Postponing economic accords might be an effective way of
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Youth Atlantic Treaty Association delegates interviewed at their General Assembly held in Berlin in November 2008. The topics range from Russian relations to what Obama will ask Europe to do.
In this series of exclusive videos, atlantic-community.org has interviewed delegates and representatives of the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA), an association with 39 member organizations on each
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The EU and Russia will meet for an annual meeting, focusing on the renewal of their partnership agreement. ++ Since the attacks on Georgia, EU-Russian relations have been shattered. ++ Europeans will not accept a divided Georgia. ++ The EU will have to be open to compromise, considering its dependency on Russian energy, but Russia will also have to make concessions in view of its dependency on
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Last week, Medvedev threatened to station missiles near Poland if the US administration continued its plans to install a missile defense system there and in the Czech Republic. ++ President-elect Obama has to improve US-Russian relations. ++ He should be “ready to cancel deployment of the faulty missile defense system in Central Europe [and] end the US push for imminent NATO expansion into
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Russia’s attacks on Georgia have been decried by the US as a violation against international law but recent US attacks on Syria are no less destabilizing to the area. ++ Syria has not only initiated peace talks with Israel and reestablished diplomatic ties with Lebanon, it is also strengthening relations with the EU. ++ US attempts to isolate Syria are failing. ++ The bombings can be viewed
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President Medvedev’s speech harshly attacked the United States and threatened to deploy new missile systems. ++ This threat is a bluff to trick the US or NATO allies into abandoning a plan for a simple missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic. ++ Russians know the system is aimed at Iran and couldn’t stop Russian ICBMs. ++ Obama is too smart to fall for such obvious attempts of
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America could prevent proliferation ambitions around the world by upgrading its own nuclear weapons arsenal. ++ Congressional funding would allow for building safer and more reliable arms. ++ The proposed “Reliable Replacement Warhead Program,” intends for the US and Russia to reduce their nuclear weapons without having to test replacement warheads. ++ The next president should
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Commodity prices are falling, Western credit has dried up, and Russia has failed to diversify its economy. ++ Russia’s dazzlingly successful economy turned out to be just make-believe. ++ Despite the professionalism of the finance ministry’s rescue plan, Putin does not see the need to make that consistent with his foreign policy. ++ He can no longer assume Russia’s energy power
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There is a lesson to be learned from the West’s decision to integrate China into its fold following Tiananmen Square. ++ While China is still ruled by the same horrific party responsible for the Cultural Revolution, it is “a far cry from the Mao Zedong era.” ++ By applying the same “global liberalizing influences” to Russia, all will benefit from closer “peace
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The Georgia conflict is forcing Russia’s neighbors to rethink their relationships with Russia as well as with the West. Through military action, Russia has demonstrated how far it is willing to go to protect its national interests. Western rhetorical reactions to the crisis have dashed hopes that a partnership between post-Soviet states and the US, NATO or the EU could help retain their
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“Old” and “new” Europe parallel the blue and red state split in the US. ++ In old (western) Europe Obama is viewed as a “ray of hope;” new (central and eastern) Europe raises the question, “Who is Obama?” ++ This can be attributed to a difference in threat perceptions. ++ Nowhere is this exemplified more than in Germany. ++ There, a proto-Kantian
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The financial crash will have serious geopolitical consequences. ++ Russia will reassert itself as a global player. ++ As its stock market does not play as crucial a role as in Western markets, and as Russia has a lot of money due to the boom in oil and natural gas markets, it will be the greatest winner in the aftermath of the crisis. ++ The US will also, in the long run, gain as the crisis will
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Russia’s invasion of Georgia is not an aberration - it demonstrates a pattern of aggression, one that now threatens Ukraine as Moscow embraces PM Yulia Tymoshenko. ++ Russia’s relations with Tehran, Syria, OPEC and most recently Venezuela all threaten US interests. ++ Western weakness, especially in Europe, is not an option. ++ Georgia and Ukraine must be brought into NATO; military cooperation
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Viktor Yuschenko, president of Ukraine, has called for another parliamentary election in hopes of settling internal divisions symbolized largely by Ukraine’s leading three politicians - Yuschenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovich. ++ This must be a Ukrainian election for Ukrainians. ++ Both Russia and the US (NATO) must keep their hands off. ++ Instead the EU should make Ukraine’s membership in the
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Moscow’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia does not correlate with universal approval, and an international dialogue concerning the status of Georgia is set to begin. ++ Europe has proven itself too dissolute to confront Russia openly: Sarkozy has advocated global mediation, emphasizing Georgia’s weakness, and Merkel speaks of “Georgia’s core territory,” nearly cow-towing to the Russian
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Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s hand.” ++ Russia undermined US efforts to impose new sanctions against Tehran during the Security Council’s meeting last month. ++ The fact
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Russia’s military is almost an obsolete force due to poor training and poor quality of armaments. ++ Russia’s defense budget is just 7% of US spending. ++ It is unlikely that Russia will be able to afford the $200 billion needed for the revival of its military due to declining oil prices. ++ Ukraine also lacks appropriate military equipment and training - both countries are among the
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NATO has lost itself in the in Caucasus conflict. ++ Medvedev has repeatedly outlined his plans for a EU security architecture - he views his country’s security interests neglected. ++ The EU has almost disqualified itself from diplomatic talks by blindly solidarizing with Georgia. ++ The acceptance of Georgia’s wish for future membership in NATO might be a slight to Russia ++ If NATO
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Iran is at most four years away from its nuclear goals - diplomacy is needed. ++ Russia’s offer to provide Iran with enriched nuclear material and US proposals for direct talks in return for the abandonment of nuclear intentions have been turned down. ++ The disapproval of further offers might result in the total isolation of Iran. ++ Using military force is only credible if Iran “can
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Russian President Medvedev continues the wave of anti-US invective of his predecessor. ++ After 9/11, the US failed to spread democracy around the world, choosing to “consolidate its global domination” instead. ++ Europe should intensify its relations with Russia to “unite the whole Euro-Atlantic region.” ++ The US suffers from a “very dangerous disease” called
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The US presidential race has been one for the ages. ++ Citizens of the globe have never come so close to seeing an African American become president of the world’s most powerful nation; never again will they see a Vietnam veteran running; never have they seen 19 million votes go to a women; and never have they seen a women so close to becoming vice president. ++ In America, though, “victory
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We are too easily impressed by the Russian bear. ++ “Moscow remains bent on ignoring the devastating truth: The nation is not just sick but dying.” ++ The population is declining, the economy is totally dependent on oil revenues, and the public health crisis “verges on the catastrophic.” ++ AIDS, tuberculosis, alcoholism, heart disease, and smoking are killing Russians at an alarming rate. ++
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The US Senate must pass a waiver buying seats aboard Russian space vehicles for US astronauts.++ The NASA shuttle fleet retires in two years, and its new space vehicle, the Orion, will not be ready until 2015, essentially leaving the space station to the Russians until that time. ++ The only way for American astronauts to continue at the space station is via Russian space vehicles. ++ Despite
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It’s a critical question: Is the financial crisis on Wall Street going to damage the US’s image of good finance and business expertise? ++ Actually, the answer is no. ++ The image of the US from a global perspective is still strong, and the US is for many “a beacon of free enterprise.” ++ There is no other financial leader who could replace the US - Europe is divided, while Russia and China have
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For a long time it has been thought that world markets are decoupling, enabling the emerging economies of the BRIC group to thrive regardless of the economic slowdown in the Western world. ++ The emerging countries were predicted to quickly overtake the veterans of the G7. ++ New data, however, seem to puncture that theory. ++ BRICs do not live in an enclosed world, and the credit crunch has had
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If Russia is to believe that the anti-missile base in Poland will not be used against it, US and its allies have to stop making “cosmetic political gestures” and give concrete guarantees. ++ Statements about Kremlin’s imperialist policies are unfair; Russia has always sided with the weaker and, like always, its moral rightness is undisputed. ++ Moscow doesn’t fear isolation, as
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Russia is convinced that it can deal with the West, but worries about the dangerous Afghanistan. ++ The well-being of the Russian economy and a good relationship with its domestic Muslim population depend on a stable Afghanistan. ++ Therefore, the announcement to conduct military maneuvers with Kazakhstan could be a sign that Russia is deciding to take responsibility there. ++ The US was not able
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Russia’s recent actions make it look like the Cold War is back, but Russia is still a poor, weak country. ++ Russia’s military is no match for NATO and their backup nuclear arsenal is unlikely to play a role in conflicts. ++ Moscow can claim few worthwhile allies and efforts to woo China have largely failed. ++ Capitalism requires Russia to behave and if energy prices continue to slide,
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A poll revealed that Americans and Europeans were troubled over the growing power of Russia even before the attack on Georgia. ++ Respondents in Europe and the US were united in concern about the Kremlin providing weapons to the Middle East, Russia’s energy monopoly, and its behavior toward its neighbors. ++ What they don’t agree upon is how to respond to the Kremlin’s new assertiveness;
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Monday, Russia agreed to joint naval exercises with Venezuela and is making its first major maneuvers off US waters since the Cold War. ++ It is not widely recognized, but the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Panama Canal are vital gates for US energy imports, making them vulnerable choke points for enemies of the US, i.e., a Russian-Venezuelan alliance. ++ Chavez has been buying weapons from
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It is no accident that Dick Cheney visited Azerbaijan last week. ++ Azerbaijan is a core east-west transit country for oil and natural gas. ++ Their pipelines provide energy to Europe, support former Soviet republics, and help keep oil money away from Iran and Russia. ++ Yet, Azerbaijan still wants to maintain good ties with Russia and is not seeking NATO membership. ++ The war in Georgia has
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While some have argued that the recent summit in Brussels proved ineffective, the Georgia crisis has actually drawn the member states closer together. ++ As Europe proceeds, there are important objectives to keep in mind. ++ Europe must focus on energy security and limit its dependence on Russian supplies. ++ Accession must be a viable option for eastern countries, especially Ukraine. ++ And
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Ukraine is approaching its third election in two years, a sign of its government’s volatility. ++ In response, the EU should put Ukraine on a clear road to accession, an albeit controversial move that is nevertheless in its vital interest. ++ Furthermore, the EU must invest economically in Ukraine, thereby bringing stability and growth to a region that could otherwise fall prey to the divisive
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Despite the call for sanctions on Russia from Poland and the three Baltic states, the only agreement the EU made was to postpone talks about a partnership agreement with Moscow. ++ Medvedev praised the EU’s decision to reject sanctioning Russia, but was disappointed about the EU’s inability to understand Russia’s motives in the Caucasus war. ++ The US welcomed the EU’s decision to boost efforts
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Whereas the two last US administrations had a chance to assume American hegemony in economics and security, the chief task of the next one will be to adjust to the global shift in power and gracefully manage diminishing American influence. ++ The US will not be able to show as much arrogance in international relations now that its influence is waning and new powers are emerging. ++ The next
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“The attack on Georgia will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder.” ++ Russia thought it had little to lose, but it has driven its neighbors, like Poland and Ukraine, into the arms of the West. ++ The US and the EU are now in the best strategic position in 20 years and even China has refused support. ++ Lowering oil prices and working
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Conflict in Georgia proved that Russia isn’t and doesn’t want to be a part of Europe. ++ Moscow rejects European commitment to nonviolent methods of conflict resolution and shows little appreciation for equality of nations, which is a fundamental principle on the Old Continent. ++ Kremlin trusts in the “hierarchy of raw power.” ++ This mindset is anachronistic for the 21st century and
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EU efforts to reach a friendly and mutually beneficial relationship with Russia are thwarted by the new eastern and central European EU members. ++ These countries, in contrast to old members, failed to leave past enmities at the door when joining the Union and can only view Russia through the prism of their bitter historic experience.++ Jacque Chirac’s warnings about EU enlargement now appear
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NATO’s failure to provide Georgia and Ukraine with a concrete Membership Action Plan was a grave mistake, as demonstrated in part by recent events in Georgia. ++ Both NATO and the EU, the latter meeting today to discuss circumstances in Georgia, must avoid further empty promises, and instead pursue concrete action. ++ The West should not isolate Russia, i.e., exclusion from the G8, but must
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President Medvedev was unable to achieve the explicit support of the Chinese president for Russia’s intervention in the Caucasus at the latest Central Asian summit. ++ China has not only avoided any anti-western statements so far, it is also concerned about an upcoming trend of separation which may spill over to its own ethnically diverse provinces. ++ Beijing has kept a low-profile in the
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Will Turkey side with the US, its NATO ally, and give it access to the Black Sea to assist Georgia, or will it choose Russia? ++ Russia is warning Turkey that it will hold it responsible if US ships do not leave. ++ Turkey depends on Russian gas and, more importantly, the two countries share many negative opinions about the US. ++ Azerbaijan and Armenia are worried about a Turkish-Russian
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International investors were already troubled by Russia’s economic problems, but Russia’s recent actions toward Georgia have created diplomatic tensions, which may scare off investors. ++ The outcome of the US election could be a major factor in how Western relations with Russia develop. ++ Weak legal protections for foreign investors who irk Russian authorities will also deter investments. ++
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It was Saakashvili’s behavior that forced Russia to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ++ Relations of different nations living in one state have to be handled with great sensitivity. ++ Russia respects its minorities and fosters harmonious coexistence between them; the president of Georgia proved himself unable to do the same and stripped his country’s regions
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The agenda for cooperation with Russia looks doubtful but safe havens for cooperation still exist. ++ For instance, the entire civil and military nuclear agenda opens room for diplomacy. ++ However, no single European institution is perfectly suited to working on security arrangements. ++ At this highly charged moment, the best choice may be to turn to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in
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Russia’s invasion is not only a threat to Georgia, it also questions the political order and values of Europe. ++ With American help, the EU has become “one of the greatest strategic achievements of the 20th century.” ++ But now the Russian aggression is drawing a dividing line through Europe and separates the truly independent nations from those which are stuck on Russia’s autocratic
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The US should use alternative means to accelerate Russia’s withdrawal from Georgia and to stabilize the country. ++ In addition to humanitarian aid, it could initiate a large reconstruction operation to ensure the vitality of Georgia’s economy during the Russian occupation. ++ Also, the corrupt oligarchs around Putin could be undoubtedly pressured if US agencies pursue corrupt practices of
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There is little the United States can do to help Georgia. ++ Russia, with its nuclear weapons, oil, dollar reserves and seat on the UN Security Council, has too much leverage on US foreign policy, so banishing Russia from the G8 would be unwise. ++ The US should lessen their dependence on Russian energy and aim to get Russia to cooperate, not provoke obstinacy. ++ Russian troops should be
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Poles, Czechs and Hungarians should be under no illusion that they can count on the US in case of a crisis. ++ In the past the US used to leave its Eastern European allies in the lurch and its recent reaction to Georgia’s plight was no different. ++ The only thing that the frontline states can do is to count on themselves. ++ They should make a larger commitment to their own defense,
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A sharp consensus between Europe and the US emerged at the NATO summit that they can not deal with Russia as usual. ++ Regarding the question what to do instead, one answer could be: concentrate on Russian oligarchs. ++ They have close ties with Putin, but also operate globally and depend on Western capital markets, Western consumers and foreign bank accounts. ++ Beside measures such as denying
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Even though both Washington and Warsaw deny it, it was the Russian attack on Georgia that broke the stalemate in negotiations and pushed Polish government towards signing the missile defence treaty on Wednesday. ++ A garrison of American soldiers who will protect the US Patriot air defense battery on the Polish territory is supposed to act as a tripwire - any Russian attack on the MD system
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The Atlantic view that it’s necessary to protect the underdog from its powerful neighbour is isolated; most of the world is bemused at Western double standards and sees Russia as bullied by the West. ++ Events in Georgia show that the West lacks strategic thinking. ++ Instead of dealing with Russia, Western thinkers should decide what the greatest long-term challenge is – China or the
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In the discussion of US-Russian relations, one element has been overlooked: the shift in the nuclear balance. ++ After the cold war both powers agreed to reduce their tactical nuclear arsenal, but Russia started from a much higher level and still has 10 times the number of weapons held by the US. ++ This disparity is alarming because the weapons not only play a huge role in the rhetoric of
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The reemergence of autocracy and great-power politics questions the stability of the international liberal order. ++ Unfortunately, Europe’s postmodern tools of foreign policy are not able to counter Russia in the latest conflict between liberal democracy and autocracy. ++ Facing the rise of great-power autocracies, democracies turn back in the direction of the US. ++ Despite predictions of
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Russia’s use of force in the Caucasus is fully legitimized by its right to self-defense and international law. ++ The US has to acknowledge that brutality against a civilian population is not justified simply because the Georgian government calls itself “democratic.” ++ Russia advocates a peaceful resolution and the implementation of the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan. ++ It also wants good bilateral
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By agreeing to host a US missile defence base Poland, like the UK and Czech Republic, became America’s groundbait and exposed itself to a possiblity of a nuclear attack. ++ In turn, the system is supposed to protect Poland as well. ++ Bad news is, MD will not work for at least another 50 years and it is doubtful if ever at all. ++ There is no rationale behind MD: it is only built to
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Two of the EU’s key assumptions towards Russia have been proven wrong: firstly, Russia obviously does not share the Western values and secondly, Russia does not oppose Iran going nuclear. ++ Moscow can assume that a nuclear Iran will hurt Western interests more than Russian and will shape balance of power favorably for Russia. ++ Yet, there is still a chance for the EU to pressure Iran through
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NATO foreign ministers are meeting tomorrow in Brussels to decide on further actions regarding the crisis in Georgia. ++ To prevent further instability, they should reassure those members who fear Russia that atlantic mutual-defence commitments are real and make new defense arrangements that would deter Russia. ++ They must also speed up the enlargement process and bring in Ukraine and the
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Iran remains mute on Georgia crisis. ++ US-Russia rift could spoil Iran Six negotiations; or increase Russia’s engagement. ++ Historical ties to Georgia and more recent fears of Russian aggressiveness should lead Iran to condemn this violation of Georgian sovereignty. ++ Tehran needs to act as an impartial mediator. ++ An adverse effect on Russian-Iranian relations has to be risked. ++ Post-9/11
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US journalism was famous for its independence and professionalism, but recent coverage of the Russia-Georgia conflict is unfair and unbalanced. ++ The so-called free press automatically took Georgia’s side and ignored or distorted events in order to portray an “evil” Russia. ++ On the other hand, Russian media reacted with messages that remind Russians that the true evil is the US and that
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Russia claims to protect Ossetians, but its brutal military campaign encompassed the whole of Georgia and therefore a regime change in Georgia seems to be its true aim. ++ In light of these events, Georgia’s reasons for seeking NATO membership are apparent. ++ Hopefully, NATO will move ahead with a membership track for both Georgia and Ukraine. ++ The US and its allies must persuade the Russian
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If the world allows Russia to crush Georgia’s democracy and independence, it will give a green light to all authoritarian governments. ++ The historical echoes of Finland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia are deafening and only Western peacekeepers can end the war. ++ A modern version of the Berlin Airlift is needed to save the Georgian economy. ++ Georgia is only a threat to Russia because it
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This week’s events in Georgia proved the failure of the Western policy of belligerence towards the Kremlin. ++ It failed to take into account the complexity of the ethnic, religious, and nationalist structures in Georgia and even encouraged Saakashvili to challenge Putin. ++ As a result, the plans to enlarge NATO experienced a backlash, Russian neo-imperialism is strengthened and Georgia has
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For democracy in Georgia to last, Georgians need to feel we have their backs; the West must impose tough economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia. ++ This conflict demonstrates impotency of the global security order. ++ The West must show Russia it has a greater capacity to sustain a hypothetical new Cold War. ++ It is crucial that the EU breaks the Russian stranglehold on Europe’s
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The clashes in the Caucasus show once again how explosive secessionist conflicts can be. ++ According to international law, they endanger global peace and only the UN and the OSCE are authorized to manage the resolution of such conflicts. ++ But parties involved distrust UN mediation: the separatists because the sovereignty of Georgia is highlighted; Georgia because Russia has a veto in the
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Of all the post-Soviet states, Georgia has come furthest in the fight to strenghten democracy and independent foreign policy and that is precisely what Russia wants to thwart. ++ The fact that Russia was entrusted with the peacekeeping and mediating in Abkhazia and South Ossetia makes the violation of international norms even more appalling. ++ This war is not only about Georgia’s
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After the collapse of the Soviet Union and victory of western liberalism, the world is experiencing a revival of authoritarianism, especially in petro-states in Latin America or the Middle East. ++ Furthermore, Russia has learned its lesson from history: instead of liberalization, Putin established a neo-authoritarian state with imperial ambitions as the latest Russian retaliation proves. ++
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Russia has continued to recognize Georgia’s regional unity and merely responded to the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. ++ To call it an attack on “small, defenseless Georgia” is hypocritical and inhumane. ++ Western encouragement prompted Georgian leaders to think that they could escape the blame for a “blitzkrieg.” ++ Russia is not seeking territorial expansion, but unlike the US has valid
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The current conflict is not only about Russia and Georgia, but also represents the US-Russian competition for control over the strategically important transit routes for oil and gas. ++ The Georgian President must have aimed at American involvement when he attacked Russia, because he knows only the US is able to enforce a solution advantageous for Georgia. ++ The West is now challenged by
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Western support of Kosovo’s declaration of independence and NATO’s assurance of Georgia and Ukraine’s eventual Atlantic Alliance membership erode Russian influence on former states of the USSR. ++ Georgia pays a high price for adopting a pro-Western foreign policy and choosing new allies. ++ This intervention is a clear message to the West to stay out of what Kremlin sees as its
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Admitting Georgia and Ukraine to NATO could spoil the cooperation between Russia and the West. ++ If NATO decides to take in the two former Soviet republics, Russia might reciprocate by freezing its relations with the alliance which would be a lose-lose situation for all the parties involved. ++ We must not let this issue cool the relations between NATO and Moscow. ++ NATO, Russia and the OSCE
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EU realizes it is time to solve the festering conflicts in the Union’s new neighborhood: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. ++ But Moscow has an interest in preserving this “simmering status quo” and delays anything that could resolve the duel as it helps to achieve the goal of keeping Georgia out of NATO. ++ The key to resolution is for the EU to convince Kremlin that peace and stability on
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The relations between Russia and the EU are shaped by mistrust which poses a threat to trade and investment between both regions. ++ Although they still rely on each other economically - especially Russia whose economy depends on oil and gas exports - EU-Russian trade finds itself in an impasse. ++ Russia must diversify its business and reduce state-control. ++ Moscow and Brussels have to work
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America declares it stands up for human rights; it condemns the regime in Burma and calls for fair democratic elections in Zimbabwe. ++ However, it is doing so only where it is convenient: human rights infringements in China and Saudi Arabia or the fact that Dmitri Medvedev came to power in fraudulent elections are overlooked. ++ The hypocrisy of condemning one and turning a blind eye to the
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Hopes for friendly relations with Russia, running high in the 1990s, were ruined by the Bush administration. ++ NATO membership offer to Georgia and Ukraine and plans to install elements of missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic have fuelled Russian paranoia about strategic encirclement. ++ We need to understand that Russian foreign policy is shaped by their hunger for respect
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With a military budget larger than the rest of the world’s combined, the US is still undeniably world’s greatest superpower. ++ However, there are clear signs that its empire is overreaching itself and the whole system starting to crack. ++ Russia is the only state with a nuclear weapons arsenal that equals America’s. ++ Russia’s political and military leaders should pay attention to
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The prospect of war between Georgia and Russia is increasingly realistic. ++ We must stand up for Georgia and prevent the war as it could lead to the breakdown of Russia’s relations with the West and destabilize a territory so crucial for Western
energy supplies. ++ Using the so-called “frozen conflict” in Georgia’s breakaway province Abkhazia as an excuse, Russia is trying to subdue Tbilisi,
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It seems that the importance of liberty and democracy in Russia is inversely correlated to the prices of oil and gas. ++ While denouncing Mugabe, Council of Europe secretary-general recently expressed his admiration for Putin and Medvedev, whose hold on power is similarly counterfeit. ++ The European fantasy appears to be that oil revenue and designer boutiques will magically turn Russia into a
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The elusive perception of the West as a threat is still alive in Russia. ++ But Moscow’s self-destructive confrontation with the West and its fantasy of allying with China can be halted if Ukrainian europeanization succeeds. ++ Ukraine is dangerous, not for Russia’s security but for Putin’s model of state. ++ If Ukraine succeeds in its European choice, it can settle the old Russian question
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Since the Cold War, US foreign policy has struggled to find a “main enemy,” thereby defining its focus. ++ Global politics, however, have returned to a status quo, in which a broad range of problems, with long-term resilience and requiring non-ideological responses, will be better served with America’s continuing strategic advantage on most fronts. ++ On a non-governmental
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On the surface, the strategic Sino-Russian relationship seems at an apex. ++ In reality, however, relations between the two leading Eurasian powers are being weakened by a stalemate in military sales, disputes over energy prices, and a general decline in trade due to Russia’s wavering manufacturing capacity. ++ China’s trade with Russia in 2007 accounted for 2 percent of China’s global trade
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July 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the NPT which provided an opportunity to reexamine its current and future role. ++ Nuclear nonproliferation movement is at a crossroads. ++ It is crucial that the next US president calls for deep cuts in nuclear weapons around the world at the start of his administration in January 2009. ++ He should also appoint a nonproliferation “czar” to help him shape
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Senator McCain’s call for a “League of Democracies” would be a danger rather than an aid to world peace. ++ With both Russia and China excluded, the league would be unable to combat the most pressing global matters: terrorism, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. ++ McCain’s plan could even create a Cold War-like tension between democratic and autocratic states. ++ The League of Democracies
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The USA is not performing the transition to conventional weapons, which was meant to lessen the country’s dependence on nuclear weapons for defense. ++ US politicians and media are using the claim that Russia is boosting its military spending to justify the maintenance of the American nuclear arsenal. ++ Yet, even Russian generals are talking about the “weakness of Russia’s nuclear
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In the 80s Ronald Reagan warned Europe about becoming dependent on Russian energy. ++ With Gazprom supplying over 40 percent of Germany’s natural gas, this prediction is becoming a reality. ++ A question for the future, is whether the EU’s energy liberalization policy - unbundling the wholesale and retail businesses in gas and electricity- will either challenge or assist the
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Russia’s main challenge is the modernization of its economy, politics, and society. ++ President Medvedev has singled out the rule of law as a particularly significant aspect of the reforms. ++ The EU should support these reform efforts, not by setting various conditions or by lecturing, but by engaging Russia in a comprehensive dialogue. ++ In the future, an advanced Russian-European partnership
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Whatever Putin and Medvedev said, there is no doubt that the transfer of power towards Moscow’s White House has begun. ++ The head of the presidential administration has called for a change to the Constitution, with the purpose of strengthening the role of the government. ++
According to his proposal, the number of subjects with the right to introduce bills in the Duma should be reduced. ++ If
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Some may be tempted to ignore Bush during his final tour of Europe, a US President on his way out does not need the same attention as one on his way in. ++ Bush’s presidency, however, has marked an epoch-making shift: the emphasis of US diplomacy moved away from stability concerns and toward the spread democratic freedom; an emphasis that is strengthening the Atlantic
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The vital partnership of the EU and the US should be continued through the end of Bush’s term. ++ Issues such as the economy, Iran, Iraq, and climate change require the joint policy of financial and executive bodies. ++ The West also needs to display unity and determination in the face of Medvedev’s Russia, which has retained the nationalist tones and the threatening energy policy of the Putin
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Russia is changing. ++ The new Russian president’s speeches in Berlin about the importance of free press, of a broad middle class, and of the acknowledgement of mistakes made during the Prague spring are more than astonishing. ++ Although his first foreign visit was to China, Medvedev stressed that Europe would remain Russia’s top foreign policy priority. ++ He pointed out that Russia wants to
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Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the Kremlin should be impossible to refuse, and must compensate for what Russia currently gains by dealing with Iran. ++ Russia will join the boycott if the
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Western calls for restraint are ineffective as tensions rise in Georgia over Abkhazia, the region where Russia supports separatist aspirations that threaten Georgia’s national unity. ++ “Moscow seems determined to provoke Tbilisi to take military action that would discredit Georgia in western eyes.” ++ Besides constraining Russia with the threat of diplomatic consequences, the US/EU should
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Cooperation between Russia and the US on issues of nonproliferation is vital for America’s national security. ++ The agreement now before the US Congress would help the US and Russia create an international fuel bank that could provide nuclear-fuel services internationally and thus undercut countries who falsely claim to be perusing uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. ++ While Russia should
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Sparked by a recent Russian territory claim at the North Pole, a meeting has been called this week in Greenland over the future of the Arctic. ++ In the midst of a decade old rivalry, the US, Canada, Russia, Norway and Denmark have a huge stake in future development as the region may contain up to a quarter of the earth’s natural resources. ++ Although each nation is committed to a peaceful
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The growing popularity of John McCain’s League of Democracies among US voters of both parties should raise concern. ++ In a post-American world peace and prosperity especially require Chinese and Russian cooperation. ++ Democracies would be no less paralysed into inaction than the UN and would further lack international legitimacy for intervention. ++ It is by reforming the
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In a series of recent talks, poignantly described as “bad dates,” Russian President Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao were divided on issues concerning missile defense and energy resources. ++ Ready to elide almost all other bilateral concerns, China’s need to procure oil and gas seems to be shifting its arm of diplomacy towards the Middle East. ++ Given their estranged
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Though the Eurovision Song Contest should not be reduced to politics, the extent to which political considerations surpass artistic ones is undeniable. ++ Russia’s victory resulted from the overwhelming support of former Soviet satellite states eager to please their intimidating big neighbor. ++ Yet, victory ultimately offers an outlet for unthreatening national aspirations and a chance to exert
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President Medvedev’s visit to China has important symbolic significance. ++ Driven by their shared goals of safeguarding and promoting national interests in an era of US dominance, Beijing and Moscow have grown increasingly close in recent years. ++ They formed strategic partnerships on key international issues, such as defense, and established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. ++ Yet
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Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and current US sanctions on capital inflow into Iran stand in the way of exploiting this huge potential. ++ Much depends on the coming elections, both in the US and Iran,
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US diplomats will not exceed their offer - worth billions - to modernize Poland’s armed forces in exchange for the hosting of the anti-missile shield base on Polish soil. ++ Poland’s expectations are higher than what the US is prepared to offer and talks are now threatened with collapse. ++ Poland’s room for maneuver is limited by Russia’s easing of its position against the missile shield, NATO’s
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Over the last 14 years, Lukashenko has secured Minsk’s sovereignty, improved the wealth of the population, and raised the interest of European investors. ++ Yet these achievements mask rampant corruption and lack of democracy. ++ Since both Soviet times and the era of Eastern European autocracies are over, Belarus needs real reforms. ++ Unchallenged, Lukashenko may remain in power but he must
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The US is making a bold, perhaps doltish, move by refusing to discuss a treaty aimed at preventing weapons in outer space. ++ China and Russia have warned that a countermove would be unavoidable to ensure their own security. ++ Many are urging the Pentagon to consider the historical consequences of expanding warfare to new frontiers. ++ In reality, however, defense contractors and military
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Russia is increasing military means in Georgia that show striking parallels with Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus. ++ NATO members argue Georgia’s state of democratization needs to improve before they are willing to risk souring relations with Russia, but it is overlooked that much more is at stake here. ++ Despite EU and NATO bureaucratic considerations, Western help in general is
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Despite hopes for change in the West, the new Russian president is hardly going to initiate a new foreign policy. ++ While Medvedev’s liberal instincts are debatable, the forces arrayed around and against him remained the same. ++ Besides, Medevedev’s presidency was not earned but “given” to him, for his unquestioning loyalty to Putin. ++ It is a widespread misconception
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President-elect Dmitry Medvedev realizes that high economic growth cannot be sustained as long as Russia relies primarily on macroeconomic policy and rising oil prices, and inequality and corruption remain widespread. ++ His rhetoric suggests that he will seek to encourage entrepreneurship, empower civil society, and create an independent judiciary in order to diversify the economy and combat
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Russia and China are autocracies by conviction. ++ They believe in the virtues of strong central government and despise the weaknesses of the democratic system. ++ Autocracy was thought to be less successful in aggregating national wealth, which China and Russia are proving to be untrue. ++ Can autocracies enter the liberal international order without becoming liberal? Yes, Russia and China can.
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Japan and Russia’s planned cooperation in fields of energy, transportation, and the environment require settling their territorial dispute. ++ So as to expand its influence in the booming Asia-Pacific region and maintain its volumes of energy exports, Russia may cede sovereignty of the northern islands to Japan. ++ Successful negotiations would enable crucial collaboration on North Korea
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There is more to NATO’s enlargement plans than the official explanations imply. ++ “NATO is just a vehicle and another opportunity to extend its hard power globally” says Dan Plesch. ++ Regional dominance in former Soviet territory countervails potential return of Russian ambition. ++ NATO would gain influence over oil supplies, too. ++ Therefore Russian perception of threat by NATO
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Russian perception of enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia as a threat is reasonable. ++ Russia desperately needs EU investment and technology. ++ Europe needs Russian natural gas. ++ Russia should also be stronger engaged in disarmament again. ++ Stable relations to Russia should be preferred over NATO enlargement, representing “the fantasies of an American president.”
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Not the US but the new big globalizers are responsible for renewed global tensions since the 1980s. ++ BRIC countries, – Brazil, Russia, India and China – terrify because they compensate for weakness by projecting power. ++ Yet they struggle with inclusive development, demography, and financial transparency. ++ Small adaptable states are actually more likely to overtake performances
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European obstructionism of US proposals at the NATO summit exposes the EU’s division, weakness, and indecisiveness. ++ Energy dependency means that Russia has a de facto veto over EU security. ++ Suggesting the EU could mediate between the US and Russia is unrealistic. ++ A revival of Ostpolitik would impede NATO, increase Russia’s leverage, and lead to a deterioration of
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The threats to US supremacy tend to be overstated. ++ China and Russia won’t achieve global domination while the post war arrangement goes on. ++ Yet to contain the progress of autocracy, protect and promote liberalism, and maintain its global power, the US should lead a democratic front within the framework of international institutions and cease discrediting its model with inappropriate
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Europe needs Russia for its oil and natural gas and Russia needs Europe for revenue from these resources. ++ This reciprocal relationship explains Europe’s opposition to granting Ukraine and Georgia NATO membership. ++ The issue of energy security is one of the few issues where central and eastern European countries agree with the US and are in conflict with Germany and France.
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Russia could benefit from the US financial crisis if Americans transfer their excess liquidity to currencies such as the ruble which are likely to appreciate. ++ Russia is enticing to foreign investors: the ruble is undervalued, Russian equities are cheap, and commodities are scarce. ++ Yet Russia will also face risks as a sudden increase in capital inflow could lead to reduced reform and
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Medvedev will not transform a system created by his mentor, to which he contributed, and thanks to which he enjoys uncontested primacy. ++ Only economic difficulties and hostility to the intended modernization could bolster conservative opposition and result in change. ++ Russia’s political future will depend on the executive team’s ability to sustain growth, but liberalization remains unlikely.
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Israel’s legitimate nuclear program is not a valuable excuse for Russia to jeopardize international security by supplying a reactor to Iran and by agreeing on nuclear cooperation with
Egypt. ++ The international community should strive to prevent unstable democracies from acquiring nuclear weapons, acknowledge that Iran is not just a threat to Israel but to the world, and hold Russia
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Energy exports are enabling Russia to be increasingly assertive and object to the US’ deployment of 10 missiles near its borders. ++ If it is possible concerning terrorism and nuclear energy, cooperation between the two countries may spread to more areas, but regarding European missile defense, the US should stand its ground. ++ Giving in would only lead to
greater intransigence from the Kremlin.
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Aside from entertaining international tensions to maintain high oil prices, Russian foreign policy has been dominated by ambivalence towards the West. ++ With the crucial importance of Russians’ foreign assets, the West should not be provoked but can not be trusted. ++ Medvedev may put an end to the Soviet legacy of suspicion in international relations, as well as an understanding of democracy as
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The development of modern western democracies in the last century linked economic growth with political and cultural modernization. ++ Russia and China seem to demonstrate there is a viable authoritarian alternative to democracy and the rule of law in a free market economy. ++ But both countries’ economies are ridden by intensifying corruption and deficiencies that could soon be a threat to world
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“Energy security” has become synonymous with less competition, political vulnerability and erosion of the rule of law. ++ With Dmitri Medvedev acting as both president and chairman of Gazprom, the Kremlin maintains an iron grip on the energy sector. ++ Brussels must demand transparency, restructuring, and market liberalization from Moscow in exchange for access to Europe’s downstream assets.
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The Russian economy is weaker than it appears. Inflation is in double figures and high growth has been dependent on commodity prices. ++ Furthermore political stability rests on a perversion of the meaning of democracy, and the Caucasus is more troubled than ever. ++ Mr. Medvedev may differ from his predecessor but if he is going to solve these issues, power sharing with Mr.Putin will not make
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Kosovo’s independence weakens international institutions, which have been waning in influence since end of Cold War. ++ UN and NATO unable to regulate international conflicts. ++ Weaker countries most likely to support international regulations, superpowers rely least upon international law. ++ Institutions can only function if set up to resolve concrete problems; standards can’t be created with
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EU member states tend to act autonomously in their relations to Russia. ++ Implementation of EU treaty provisions on common security and foreign policy offers new prospects for EU-Russia cooperation and would be conducive to a partnership focused on solving common global problems. ++ An understanding that a foreign policy consensus is important will also help the relations of individual member
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Moscow and other member governments have split over the role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OECD), according to Richard Weitz of World Politics Review. The organization, that seeks to promote the rule of law, human rights, and democratic values recently gave up the observation effort on Russia’s parliamentary elections following heavy restrictions from the
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Russia’s influence once again looms over the Baltic countries, and their position within the European Union and NATO is not mitigating the threat, argues International Herald Tribune journalist Adam Ellick. New Russian investments in media and infrastructure, coercive use of strategic energy sources, and instigation of militancy among Russian minorities have rendered Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
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Europe has become heavily reliant on Russia to meet its energy needs. This trend undermines Europe’s self-confidence and jeopardizes its geopolitical position as well as that of the United States, says Ariel Cohen from the Heritage Foundation.
Russia’s agenda seeks to perpetuate dependence by consolidating Gazprom’s position at home and abroad. As foreign companies such as Shell and BP fail to
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Op-Ed Contributor to the New York Times Leon Aron insists Russia’s premiership does not provide Mr. Putin access to wide-ranging presidential powers, and explores Putin’s prospects of retaining the presidential post. On the base of Putin’s contradictory record, neither President Bush nor White house contenders would be able to formulate a coherent Russia policy based on
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Control of the world’s oil is in a smaller and smaller number of hands, writes Sacha Kumaria on Yale Global Online. Rising oil prices — analysts predict $100 per barrel by the end of 2007 — has fuelled increasing competition between independent oil companies (IOC’s) such as Exxon Mobil and national oil companies (NOC’s). However, the world’s largest oil companies plan
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FP lists the top most valuable disputed turfs that might just be worth a fight. The world was astonished by Russia’s recent claim to the arctic shelf, with potential for billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves. But looking globally, many other strategic and mineral rich territories are just as highly contested between several countries. Japan vs. China, Venezuela against major US oil
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Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation Morton Abramowitz calls on EU member states to take a united stand on Martii Ahitissari’s blueprint for Kosovo’s “supervised independence” from Serbia. Even though Ahitissari’s proposal complies with the official EU (as well as US) policy on the issue, a number of European nations were still openly skeptical of challenging a country’s territorial integrity.
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The US intention to extend parts of its missile defense system to Poland and the Czech Republic has ruffled feathers throughout Europe. The issue has been particularly divisive in Germany, where Merkel has tried to occupy the diplomatic middle ground by proposing a multilateral missile shield project under NATO auspices in its stead - a suggestion that the US has rejected. Daniel Möckli of the
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Higher engagement of the EU and the USA in the Black Sea zone could limit European dependence on Russian energy and bring stability to the region, writes Ronald D. Asmus of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board Member points to recent developments, such as 9/11 and the enlargement of the EU in 2004, which have given the Caspian region and its energy
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In 2006, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine and Georgia, indicating that Moscow is prepared to use energy resources to exert political power over Europe. Keith C. Smith of CSIS writes that, though European leaders initially showed unified opposition to Moscow’s power play, there have since been few tangible indications of new EU policies which would protect against future Russian
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Though the space race battles of the cold war are long past, Russia is now poised to challenge the US in a twenty-first century technological battle: satellite navigation. This $15 billion market is currently dominated by the US Global Positioning System (GPS), raising fears that monopoly control could lead to a US shut-off in a time of crisis. Russia hopes to introduce eight navigation
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In February 2006, 60 nations convened to compose the Afghanistan Compact, a blueprint for Afghanistan’s transitional government, which outlined the Action Plan for Peace, Reconciliation, and Justice. Yet the Action Plan, first initiated on December 12, 2006, has yet to be fully implemented. A report released by Human Rights Watch at the end of January counted more than 4,400 Afghans who have died
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Despite a rhetoric of cooperation, Russia might constitute more of an impediment than a partner in the fight against Islamist terrorism and the promotion of democracy in the Middle East. Igor Khrestin and John Elliott, Russian Studies researchers at the American Enterprise Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations respectively, argue that by placating Islamist regimes, Moscow hopes to avoid
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Former Polish Secretary of Defense Radek Sikorski vows that Poland will not comply unconditionally with the proposed US missile defense system in Central Europe. Russia’s recent deployment of missile batteries along the Polish border has placed Poland at the front lines of this conflict. Meanwhile, the faulty US intelligence during the lead-up to the war in Iraq and the EU’s $120 billion
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North Korean nuclear tests are symptoms of an unheralded threat: not the exertion of North Korean strength, but the prospective collapse of Kim Jong Il’s government. Weakness in Pyongyang could result in desperation, a WMD attack on the South, or full-on military engagement with Seoul. Drawing on this possibility of collapse, Robert D. Kaplan discusses opportunities for:
- Reconstruction and
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Engagement in the Caspian region is an effective way to improve transatlantic cooperation, says Richard Morningstar. As the current US Special Representative for the Caspian Region, Morningstar foresees European over-dependence on Russian resources decreasing as a result of Caspian engagement. Russia could lose influence in neighboring countries. While US policy makers have always focused on the
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SAIS researchers Cornell and Jonsson emphasize the threat of organized crime to Kosovo’s fragile stability. Kosovo began sliding toward state failure after the reestablishment of the Kosovo Liberation Army (PDK) as a political party and its incorporation into national security bodies. The PDK’s involvement with national security has created a major problem for the UN Mission in Kosovo and the
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