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Open Think Tank Articles
John C. Kornblum: European leaders should propose a new initiative for “crisis dialogue” with a broad agenda for a new Atlanticism. What Americans want is a sense of strategic consensus and a willingness to take political risks in support of joint interests. Open dialogue can lead to new strategic unity.
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Ben John Baxter: Despite being a significant provider of aid and assistance to the developing world, China is not a part of the international aid decision-making process. Given its tremendous support for infrastructure projects in Africa, China deserves more recognition from the West for its development efforts.
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Josef Braml: The US will no longer give Germany a free-pass on sharing “the burden of global responsibility.” As skepticism of American foreign commitments broadens at home, and with Chancellor Merkel’s address before a joint session of Congress, Germany is no longer in a position to drag its heels on issues that the US finds most important. Furthermore, if Germany hopes to have any future sway in US politics, fulfilling expectations now is necessary.
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Iyad Dakka: America must give up its maverick style approach to foreign relations and finally accept the changing nature of international politics. President Obama may understand this, but now opposing parties and interest groups need to jump on board as soon as possible.
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Editorial Team: We have all heard that America and Europe are worlds apart. But a careful look at social statistics shows that the US is just as “European” as any country in the EU. With the rise of conservative governments in Europe and the new social movement springing up around the Obama Administration, it is time to reconsider current world views.
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Ingo Mannteufel: US President Barack Obama proclaimed a new start in Russian-American relations; now it is the Vice President’s job to initiate a new policy towards the governments of Ukraine and Georgia. Biden made it clear that the US is no longer willing to give these countries whatever it takes to counterbalance Russia.
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Editorial Team: Prior to Chancellor Merkel’s trip to Washington DC both US and German journalists described a strained personal relationship between President Obama and Chancellor Merkel. Do you believe the two leaders’ different personalities and rhetorics have a negative effect on US-German relations?
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Rudi Guraziu: The debate between realists and liberals outlines the importance of public opinion in foreign policy making. However, its impact remains limited.
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Jordan Michael Smith: The unprecedented enthusiasm with which the election of President Obama has been received in Europe is destined to sink when European and American interests conflict. Measures can, however, be applied on both sides of the Atlantic to secure the positive development of the Euro-American relationship.
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Wolfgang Nowak: America is no longer up to shouldering the world’s crises. But who is going to take its place? And how do the new global powers imagine the future world order? Foresight, a project of the Alfred Herrhausen Society, asks thinkers and policy makers from the emerging and existing powers for their thoughts and proposals.
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Askarbek Erkinovich Mambetaliev: Many commentators are looking to Kyrgyzstan to express its “creed” about the Russia-Georgia conflict, considering Kyrgyzstan a key country in Central Asia. It seems no one wants to cross the “older brother” Russia. Therefore, President Kurmanbek Bakiev must act wisely in this situation.
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Sonja Davidovic: Through the changes in the global power structure resulting from the breakdown of the Soviet Union, the USA inevitably assumed the role of a “Global Leader”. This shifted position within the international community provided the American theorists of foreign policy with new tasks. It has become imperative to define the positioning of the USA in the modified global political landscape and to find a suitable strategic orientation of the activities in the field of foreign policy.
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Marek Swierczynski: Poland’s decision to join the “coalition of the willing” has left the military stretched beyond capacity, the society in serious mistrust of their leaders and perception of a joint effort for a good cause seriously damaged. It took 25 lives 5 years and 3 governments to rethink and withdraw.
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Survey by Wall Street Journal: Economists are now debating the extent of the recession rather than its existence. Recent statistics seem to confirm concerns.
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Global Must Read Articles
Russia’s 18-year quest to become a member of the WTO may finally be drawing to a close by the end of this year, as Georgia gave its consent under US and EU pressure. ++ The biggest barrier to admission into the WTO, however, lies within Russia in the face of Vladimir Putin. ++ In the past, Putin has consistently thwarted the negotiation process in its final stages. ++ While Russian exporters
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The emergence of China as a global power has fundamentally changed the geo-political landscape of Southeast Asia. China, US and Japan are making significant efforts to cooperate and work in tandem with ASEAN to “maintain peace, stability and prosperity in the region”. As this report by the Institue for Security and Development illustrates, Southeast Asia represents, in many ways, a battleground
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Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency removes the illusion of any real political competition in Russia. ++ As president Putin is likely to aggravate relations with Russia’s neighbors and do little to tackle rampant corruption domestically. ++ This could be a major setback to Russian-American relations, which appeared to have improved slightly during Medvedev’s tenure. ++ The US and Europe
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Since the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, Israeli leaders have failed to embrace a far-sighted vision on the Israel-Palestine conflict. ++ To reinitiate the peace process, Israel should accept that only an independent Palestinian state will bring lasting peace to the region. ++ The UN vote on Palestinian statehood is an opportunity for Israel and its allies to improve relations with the
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Washington finally reached a debt-limit deal to avert a calamitous default. But the deal, which “strained and nearly snapped American politics,” was the easy part. ++ The compromise avoided reforming America’s massive entitlement spending and failed to increase tax revenues. Effectively, the bargain “addresses a liquidity problem; it does not resolve the debt
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Franco-British estrangement, caused by opposing lessons from 1956 Suez debacle, ended en route to Benghazi . ++ London realizes relationship with Washington is less special, so needs to prove independence to be noticed. ++ UK and France want to be tough guys on continent where Germany can’t play ball for security; pooling resources through NATO is only solution for Franco-British
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Foreign policy, European integration and environmental policy are subjects of predilection for Sascha Müller-Kraenner and questions on which he has extensively published in the past. He previously worked for the Heinrich Böll Foundation as director for Europe/North America, head of the program on foreign and security policy, and founding director for the North American office in
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At present, the power struggle in Kabul is reaching its apex. ++ After years of US hegemony, now, Russia, Iran and China push for influence in Afghanistan. ++ Both, Kabul and Washington depend on Moscow’s benevolence in terms of arms trade and NATO deployment. ++ Conversely, Iran aims to curb the US military threat. ++ “As for China…there are two imperatives: controlling a
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As both the Israeli and Palestinian parties have settled on a two-state solution, the US must now show them the way. ++ The rivals’ ability to negotiate bilaterally has reached its limit. ++ “An American proposal that offers clear parameters for all the issues at hand” could break the stalemate. ++ Negotiations must be accompanied by continued construction of a Palestinian state
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Former decision makers from Eastern Europe warn President Obama in an open letter about an deterioration of bilateral relations. ++ The tone of the letter is “much sharper than the usual language of diplomacy.” ++ This reaction of high-ranking political protagonists is a result of the current cooling of Eastern Europe’s relations with the US. ++ The authors state: ‘Our region is one part of the
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The Obama administration’s sternness toward Israel seems over the top considering its friendliness towards Egypt. ++ Both countries receive some of the highest percentages of US Development Aid. ++ Israel “needs little reminder of the slights, both petty and large, that the American administration has inflicted.” ++ In contrast to predecessors, Obama and Clinton have failed to make foreign aid to
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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is concerned about US President Obama’s lack of attachment to Israel. ++ “Obama doesn’t fit in the pattern of former US presidents.” ++ “The thrust of his Middle East policy - reconciling the US with the Arab and Muslim world - clashes with Netanyahu’s strategy.” ++ Obama sees a vital link between an Israeli-Palestinian peace and the containment of the Iranian
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Iranian religious leaders have suppressed efforts by any moderates to gain political power - culling all but four of the original 475 Presidential candidates for the elections. ++ President Ahmadinejad is favored to retain office, meaning social change in Iran is unlikely, even though “the majority of Iranians do not desire to live in a country that is regarded as an international pariah.” ++ But
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North Korea’s latest missile attacks and their withdrawal from the armistice with the US could escalate to become a new chapter of the Korean war. ++ “The combination of aggressive behavior and succession questions is a dangerous mixture.” ++ Both North and South Korea have reasons to avoid a new war. ++ Though the US has largely refrained from “sabre rattling,” if a new conflict did break out
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In a comparison of worldwide military spending, China has climbed to second place. ++ “The US spent $607 billion on defense, which exceeds the expenditure of the other top 14 states in one year.” ++ The worldwide war on terror has resulted in a “general tendency to approach issues from a military perspective.” ++ The overall military spending of countries has increased by four per cent. ++
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Threatening North Korea with military action will not work. ++ North Korea knows that it can ask for much in return for the abandonment of its nuclear program, such as food and economic assistance. ++ A treaty would be attractive “if it were signed by all the relevant great powers” as part of a larger international disarmament move. ++ North Korea has become ostracized, and the offer of
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Gordon Brown, like several of his predecessors, is incapable of admitting how unbalanced the UK’s special relationship with the US really is.++ But has it ever been a relationship amongst equals? ++ Even Churchill, who coined the phrase, was aware of how uneven the relationship was. ++ The disequilibrium reached its peak with Blair; his behavior towards the US highlighted “how much of a satellite
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Hillary Clinton is in Brussels, but “will trans-Atlantic relations soon be sunshine and roses again” as hoped in the European capital? ++ For the time being it doesn’t look like it; Europe continues to feel ignored and America acts alone. ++ Yet, experts believe that the US will seek European help on the Russian dossier and has high expectations on Berlin. ++ Germany has a “vested interest in a
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Japan fears abandonment. ++ The US has tried to reassure it by making it the first stop on Clinton’s tour and receiving PM Aso as the first foreign dignitary in Washington, but this does not suffice. ++ Tokyo has difficulty in adapting to the evolution of the international system and cannot cope with China’s rise and the Sino-American rapprochement. ++ The economic crisis and the
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Hit hard by the financial crisis, now is no time for Russia to make enemies and the Kremlin should be content that Obama opted for an extended-hand diplomacy. ++ Yet, “even if Medvedev goes for detente, he may not be able to deliver it: “policy is still dictated by Putin who is eager to convince the world that Russia is back. ++ Thus, Obama’s openness is a sign of hope but also of great
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Whilst he does not possess absolute authority, on Iran’s political stage nothing can be done without the green light of Ayatollah Khamenei: “he can no more be bypassed than the Great Recession.” ++ The relevance for the US is that dealing with Tehran begins with dealing with this “supreme leader.” ++ Obama must promise Khamenei that the US has discarded its goal of regime change, his worst
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Obama seems to be certain that “disaster” and “catastrophe” will materialize should the stimulus legislation fail to be adopted promptly. ++ How can he be so sure? Overconfidence is not an unfamiliar trait in Washington: Kennedy and Johnson were plagued by it. ++ This time, a little more prudence would not hurt; $789 billion are at stake and ineffective spending would be unpardonable. ++ After
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Improving relations with Iran might not be as smooth as expected for Obama. ++ Under Russia’s new security strategy, to be adopted end of February, Russia is on the way to making Iran its new strategic partner. ++ An increase in the number of nuclear engineers being sent to Tehran to work with Iranians is one of several indicators of the rapprochement. ++ This may well remove any incentive for
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Developments in Turkey since AKP’s accession to power in 2002 are seriously compromising the special relation between Ankara and the West. ++ Activities at both the domestic — discrimination against women — and international level — rapprochement with Iran — are alarming. ++ Antisemitism is also rising: the “Jewish community is being threatened: businesses are being boycotted, and instances
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The Obama administration’s plan for rescuing the banking system is not the appropriate response to saving the financial system. ++ The problem goes beyond fairness considerations, “where taxpayers bear the cost if things go wrong, but stockholders and executives get the benefits if things go right.” ++ Times have changed, Greenspan is no longer the Maestro and bankers are no longer
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Davos’ opening speeches have highlighted the opposing attitudes of the two orators. ++ They share only one thing in common, the target audience of their words: the absent USA ++ Putin heavily criticized the US for being the source of the crisis whilst China’s Wen Jiabao only indirectly alluded to it, instead stressing the importance of collaborating with the Obama administration to find a way
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The new US government has opted for raising taxes in an attempt to exit the financial crisis: a necessary step indeed considering the dangerous state of the economy as a result of the huge budget deficit accumulated during the Bush years. ++ The problem is that “the country has an idiotic income tax system” and as such it will not be sufficient to “fill more than a small part of the revenue
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US sanctions on Iran have caused an influx of Iranian trade with nearby Dubai. ++ Visits to the UAE by US officials have resulted in drastically fewer business licenses for Iranians there. ++ This policy has hurt many Iranians who are at odds with their government; “it is affecting only the people, not the government sector.” ++ US officials hope Iranians will place the blame on their own
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A study by the Pew Foundation recently
confirmed that the USA
has been suffering from an image problem for years, and this all over the
world. Even in Japan, Argentina, Germany
or Great Britain, all countries
with a traditionally positive stance towards America, approval rates are sinking
drastically. Traditional image building in the shape of the media-orientated
work of the US
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Some of the 350 US nuclear bombs in the EU are stored at host air bases. ++ A report concludes security standards were not met, and “support buildings, fencing, lighting and security systems” need improvement. ++ The storage of nukes in Europe has always been controversial, and sometimes kept secret - in Belgium for example. ++ The issue of security standards in Europe provided for renewed
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The 4th China-US Economic Dialogue will be held in the US this week. ++ The US and China can only win when cooperating in the energy and environment sector. ++ Chinese officials state they are working on reducing energy consumption by 20% by 2010 and setting goals: “Intensify energy and resource conservation. Develop renewable energy. Actively adapt to global climate change.” ++ In return, China
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Al-Maliki wants good relations both with Iran and with the US but ongoing tensions between the two are putting him in a difficult position. ++ The Iraqi Prime Minister cannot afford to ruffle Iran’s feathers because of the large Shia majority in Iraq, which is loyal to Tehran, but Iraq also needs Western help. ++ The UN mandate for Iraq ends on December 31, 2008, and Iran has tried hard to
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Recently President Bush signed an agreement to cooperate with Saudi Arabia on developing civilian nuclear energy. ++ In the case of Saudi Arabia, the agreement seems unnecessary. ++ There are alarming signs that this sudden enthusiasm is less driven by Saudi Arabia’s concerns about climate change, or declining oil supplies, than by Iran’s growing nuclear proficiency. ++ Mechanisms,
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African leaders are less reluctant to grant China access to their markets and resources because its aid is not conditional on good governance, democracy, or human rights. ++ The West and the UN’s attempts to tackle conflict, disease, and hunger are perceived as dictatorial re-colonization strategies aiming at challenging the Chinese. ++ Resistance to the US Africa Command has led to calls
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Although the US’s economic and political difficulties have rarely been so acute, all of the candidates for president are selling simple answers that don’t exist. ++ Neither McCain’s version of military victory in Iraq nor Clinton’s and Obama’s promise to bring the troops home no matter what happens are realistic. ++ Unless an honest debate is restored, post-inauguration
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The decline of America’s image in Europe is less a matter of hostility than disillusionment. ++ Reinvigorating the transatlantic relationship requires a more flexible, multilateral US, and Europe
to take more responsibility in the face of common problems. ++ With better attempts to deal with climate change and torture allegations rather than isolationism, the US could easily re-conquer Europe’s
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Energy exports are enabling Russia to be increasingly assertive and object to the US’ deployment of 10 missiles near its borders. ++ If it is possible concerning terrorism and nuclear energy, cooperation between the two countries may spread to more areas, but regarding European missile defense, the US should stand its ground. ++ Giving in would only lead to
greater intransigence from the Kremlin.
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Soaring oil prices are the result of underestimation of demand, overestimation of supply, depressed production outside OPEC, and the latter’s recent regulation of supply. ++ OPEC’s actions are preventing using oil prices to correct economic slowdown and the drop in purchasing power. ++ Without curbing imports and diversifying its sources of supply, the US
will not be free of the grip of this
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The world financial
markets’ present bout of turbulences should not hide the long-term and often brighter
trends:
Despite
occasional crises, global financial assets have expanded continuously over the
last decades. In 2006 alone, global assets increased by 17% to 167 trillion
USD.
The
growing importance of emerging countries’ financial markets and their
increasing integration in
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With power changing hands in the US, the time has come for Australia to reconsider its position towards the American leadership and acquire some confidence and self reliance. ++ Both ventures with the US in Vietnam and Iraq were disastrous, and placed Australia on the side of the politically defeated. ++ Australia need not systematically be a follower when it comes to matters of national security.
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J. Paul Horne of the European Institute reports that, after decades of US financial dominance, economic developments in Asia have driven down American GDP’s percentage scale of the global market. He suggests that the US initiate reforms to protect against emerging market power in Asia as well as in the European Union.
Reports by McKinsey as well as
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