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Open Think Tank Articles
James M Bridger: Western states have recently increased support for the regional governments fighting al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. However, a more coordinated “soft power” approach is required to address this security threat tactfully and effectively.
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Rory Stewart: The question today is not: Why did we invade Afghanistan? The question is: Why are we still in Afghanistan one decade later? Why are we spending 135 billion dollars? Why have we got 130,000 troops on the ground?
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Alexandra Dobra: The world’s eight biggest oil exporters are ripe for a terrorist attack. Any disruption of the energy supply chain could devastate the world economy, so a new set of policies combining hard power (to secure energy) and soft power (to dismantle terrorist networks) must now be implemented.
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Ahmed Rashid: Bin Laden’s death will facilitate peace talks between the Taliban, the Kabul government, and the Americans. NATO and Afghanistan’s neighbours will have to take swift military and political action in a way that will help President Hamid Karzai’s efforts to negotiate with the Taliban and end 33 years of war.
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Olivier Guitta: Al-Qaeda has been raising its profile in North East Africa recently, mainly due to lucrative kidnappings of Westerners. However, a power struggle among various different offshoots in the region is at play. The consequences of this war of succession could threaten to destabilize the surrounding area.
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Antonin Tisseron: The connection between crime and terrorism within the Polisario Front, Western Sahara’s rebel national liberation movement, is becoming increasingly clear. Moreover, there is also increasing evidence of Al-Qaeda involvement in the organization.
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Olivier Guitta: Recent terror threats from Al-Qaeda have focused on France. There are many possible reasons for this including the French presence in Afghanistan and the recent banning of Muslim veils. There is also evidence of a convergence between Al-Qaeda and terrorist groups throughout North Africa.
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Felix F. Seidler: NATO’s expected withdrawal from Afghanistan is the result of a loss in focus. The country will hardly be stable in 2014 and beyond. The aims proclaimed by the international community were not realistic in the first place. Decision makers have to take the long view, if they wish to succeed.
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Abbas Daiyar: The Taliban and al-Qaeda are achieving their goal of asserting a false sense of their strength, and are increasingly finding wider-outlets to disseminate their message. Furthermore, the US intelligence apparatus is failing to handle the situation. A strong local media campaign to counter that of the terrorists is urgently needed.
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Gretchen Peters: The drug trade in Afghanistan is benefiting the insurgency, begging the question: What do Taliban leaders intend to do with the profits? The international intelligence community would be wiser to focus its efforts on identifying and disrupting flows of money to insurgent, extremist, and terror groups.
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NATO Review: Ahmed Rashid, author of the seminal book ‘Taliban,’ talks to NATO Review’s Paul King about how terror, tribalism and the Taliban fit together in present-day Afghanistan.
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Manuel David Weitnauer: The United States must adapt its policy to the new political circumstances brought about by the National Assembly elections on February 18, 2008. This translates into reducing backup for Musharraf, altering the form of military aid, and strengthening civil society.
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Natasha Doff: Those acting in the name of al-Qaeda are energized by a particular strategy which America and Europe must recognize in order to overcome the growing threat of terrorism.
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Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen: the only news from the White House and Petraeus findings is that any decision on American troop withdrawal is postponed: President Bush is betting it all on positive trends in Iraq. Should the situation improve, Germany too will have to do its part.
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Retired General James Jones: Positive trends on the ground could enable a shift in responsibility from Coalition forces to the Iraqi security forces.
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Global Must Read Articles
As we reach the eleventh year since the September 11 attacks, the debate over the relevancy of al-Qaeda’s core leadership known as Central al-Qaeda still lingers between officials, analysts, and academics. Following the uprisings that hit the Arab world in 2010 and Osama bin Laden’s death last May, many have reevaluated their views on the relative significance of al-Qaeda in the
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Although Afghanistan remains a hotbed of terrorist activity, NATO will quit the country by 2014. ++ This marks an end to a tragic chapter in the Alliance’s history. ++ But little attention has been focused on Mali which suffered a coup just two months ago, resulting in the practice of harsh sharia law and the raising of al-Qaeda flags over buildings. ++ Fighting between Islamist and Nationalist
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The CIA has recovered a more sophisticated version of the underwear bomb that was meant to be used to destroy a US-bound airline. ++ Officials say that the bomb originated with al-Qaeda’s organization in Yemen, the AQAP. ++ The Obama administration is correct in carrying out drone strikes in Yemen, despite the critics’ claims that drone strikes are “extra-judicial executions” and thus unlawful.
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The recent killing of al-Qaeda cleric and US citizen Anwar Al-Awlaki raises questions about the legality of using drone strikes. ++ Drone strikes have increased dramatically under the Obama administration as a weapon against terror groups, but their legal standing under US and international law is uncertain. ++ US allies and human rights groups are now having their attention drawn to this policy.
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The Arab Spring has significantly weakened the influence of militant jihadist groups and delegitimized the use of violence and terrorism to attain political goals. ++ Following the popular uprisings that led to the overthrow of several dictators in the region, many former terrorist organizations are making the transition towards becoming conventional non-violent political parties.++ A decade
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Al Qaeda is gaining momentum in the Arabian Peninsula since launching an offshoot in Saudi Arabia and Yemen in early 2009. ++ The group has claimed responsibility for the September 2008 bombing of a US Embassy and the attempted Christmas Day bombing of a Northwest Airlines flight. ++ AQAP is not affiliated with groups attempting to topple the Yemeni central government. ++ “Recent
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The Christmas Day terror scare favors the rivival of Bush-style rhetoric. ++ Obama´s refreshing attempt at an open dialogue with Muslims is turning into a classical security response. ++ Though the breach was largely the fault of American intelligence and European airport screening, Washington’s first reaction was to start targeting the Muslim population. ++ In spite of Obama’s calls
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Britain and the US seek dialogue with the Taliban but the Taliban are not in the mood to talk. ++ Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s wants military victory and nothing can stop the war in Afghanistan except a clear defeat of the occupation armies. ++ He set up a coherent fighting strategy amongst different Taliban groups that aims to launch attacks on NATO. ++ Additionally, al-Qaeda will continue to
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Further allegations have been made to the International Red Cross concerning alleged torture of prisoners held in secret CIA prisons. ++The judgement of the Red Cross is very important as its status as a monitor of prisons around the world is based on “professionalism and impartiality.” ++ It
is imperative that an independent panel is set up to investigate the treatment of foreign detainees. ++
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The Supreme Court of Pakistan declared ex-Prime Minister Sharif unfit to rule due to having fought a military coup in 1999. ++ He tried to prevent the return of Gen. Musharraf, who succeeded in the coup and instituted the court which has now declared Sharif unfit. ++ Sharif does not consider the court legitimate, unlike current president Zardari. ++ Unrest followed throughout Punjab, where
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The election of Saudi Arabia’s first female minister is a welcome but small step: Saudi women continue to be denied the right to vote, subjected to childhood marriage and imprisoned for being raped under the guise of religious law. ++ The ideology which sanctions the injustice meted out to women here is emulated elsewhere in the Islamic world, and it is high time the transatlantic
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We are entering “the twilight zone,” the interregnum period between the election and the ascendance of the new president, where president Bush could act with menacing impunity. ++ The recent raid on Syria, which killed eight, is not an aberration from the Bush Doctrine, with some even considering it “no big deal” – but this attack might portend more ominous,
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The US and EU must use an unexpected exit strategy in Afghanistan: negotiate a truce with the Taliban. ++ Though the Bush administration is still vying for a better position, it has learned it is better to “take an enemy off the battlefield through negotiations, [than to get] pinned down in protracted combat.” ++ The US suspects Saudi Arabia to have gotten the ball prematurely rolling
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Even President Bush has now come to realize that Afghanistan is “the real frontline in the war on terror.” ++ America’s sixteen intelligence agencies agree that Afghanistan is on a “downward spiral.” ++ Sobering estimates say it will be five to ten years before Afghanistan is stabilized. ++ More troops are needed and if NATO allies are unwilling to send them, they should contribute monetarily.
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Osama Bin Laden called Iraq the “central front” in his fight against the US - he was right. ++ Obama/Biden only focus on the past; they still think invading Iraq was a mistake, a distraction from Afghanistan. ++ Their obsession misses the point: “The essence of being a good commander in chief is appreciating the connections among these theaters.” ++ FDR fought the Nazi’s before assailing Japan,
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President Bush’s decision to allow US military operations within Pakistan shows how desperate the situation is becoming. ++ But, if the Taliban and other extremists are to be permanently subdued, it must be done by Pakistan itself. ++ The US must convince Pakistan that the fight against extremism is their fight, not just America’s; Pakistan’s leaders must persuade their citizens of the same. ++
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Musharraf’s resignation ends an exquisite relationship between him and the Bush administration. ++ The latter created the myth that Musharraf had “joined the free world in fighting the terrorists” after 9/11. ++ The truth is, Musharraf neither supported the war on terror, nor stopped making deals with the militants. ++ But the Bush administration chose to hide Musharraf’s policies in order to
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Three American terrorism research organizations concluded that, in contrast to widely held opinion of experts, there was a net decline in terrorist violence around the world last year. ++ Chris Preble, Cato Institute: “Support for al-Qaida in particular is declining — it was never very strong in the first place.” ++ 9-11-attacks are becoming less likely, but public policy and the media are not
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It is a misunderstanding of Al Qaeda’s nature and aims that leads to the fear it could implement an Islamic state in Iraq if the US troops were to leave. ++ Al Qaeda is a non-territorial global entity that antagonizes the West, disrupts existing conflicts but cannot coordinate enough key local actors so as to rule a state. ++ In Iraq, it is the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds who play the central role.
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The manner in which the “War on Terror” has been conducted since 9/11 has rendered the United States as an uncompromising power and as a bully. Richard L. Armitage and Joseph S. Nye Jr. contend that it is Al-Qaeda’s deliberate attempt to push the United States toward an ever more unpopular position in the international arena, thus corroding its credibility and authority, which would in turn
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Moderate Muslims in Morocco are seeking a modus vivendi with Western ruling elites, reports the ISA Consulting Group. Recent parliamentary elections yielded a surprise victory for the secular nationalist Istiqlal party over the PDJ (Islamic Justice and Development Party) and the result suggests important progress towards the incorporation of political Islam in Arab states and the tempering of
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Talibanistan, the tribal region of Pakistan which forms the border with Afghanistan, is seen by Time Asia correspondent Aryn Baker as the breeding ground for a new generation of terrorists and a hideaway for al-Qaeda leaders. The “Talibanization” of the borderlands has renewed doubts about Pakistani President Musharraf’s willingness to track down jihadists. Furthermore, the loss of support from
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