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Tornike Zurabashvili: Georgia’s 2012 Parliamentary Election marks an extraordinary continuation of Georgian democratic tradition, with power to be transferred for the first time peacefully and the loser to courteously recognize the defeat. The further consolidation of the democratic process will serve as a catalyst for its spread to other states in the region.
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Jann Boeddeling: Last year, the Egyptian people asserted themselves against an oppressive state. They have stood their ground on Tahrir Square and elsewhere ever since. At the end, they may carve out a more permanent and much different political role for themselves than many currently think: a distinctively Islamic political system that puts a very direct emphasis on people-power - a perpetual Tahrir.
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Gillian Kennedy: Instead of lifting spirits, the recent elections in Egypt reflected the depressed mood amongst a people demoralized by their current situation. However, the elections were not a complete loss. Egyptian liberals still have an opportunity to bring much needed change to their country.
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Editorial Team: Elections and transfers of power look set to dominate world events in 2012. Will Chinese leadership adopt a more aggressive stance? Will Egypt develop into an Islamist regime? Here is a brief look at these and other events likely to shape the new year. Feel free to share any events you think will also be important.
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Niamatulla S. Sharifi: The outcome of the elections in Afghanistan will determine whether President Karzai will succeed in attaining his goals. However, the continued weakness of the Afghan police and military do not bode well for the safe conduct of the elections.
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NATO: Robina Jalali sprinted for Afghanistan in the 2004 and 2008 Olympic Games. She is now running toward a different finish line, as she attempts to secure political victory in the September elections as a candidate for Parliament.
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Jorge Benitez: If NATO starts to lose the battle for the political will of its people, it will slowly fade into history. A major public diplomacy effort is needed to convince the democratic constituencies in NATO countries of the alliance’s salience. This is essential to the funding of military efforts in difficult economic times.
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Florian Broschk: While the rest of the world ponders the impact the unrest in Iran will have on foreign policy issues, there is a much greater struggle going on inside the country. Different factions are manoeuvring for control of Iran and there is little that the West can do to influence this power struggle.
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Editorial Team: Amid chaos in the streets of Tehran, uncertainty remains as to the legitimacy of the election results and the appropriate response by Western countries. Please weigh in on the situation in our poll.
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Rudi Guraziu: With the lowest ever turnout in European Union elections, the future of the Union has seriously been put in doubt. Conservative victories have caused major concern in membership hopeful, Turkey. If Europe fails to speak as one, its global economic and political influence could be jeopardized.
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Marek Kubista: The European Union’s lack of legitimacy is of greater concern than the low voter turnout. To fix the democratic deficit, citizens need to feel like they have some power over the decisions made at a European level. European issues need to be debated by the press and national politicians must stop using Europe as a scapegoat for unpopular decisions.
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Editorial Team: The elections for the European Parliament are tainted by low voter turnout. Although the idea of “Europe” is popular, the European Union is not. Why is that? Join the debate and share your opinion on the European election results.
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Jens F. Laurson & George A. Pieler : The recent deal to save Opel in Europe, which was backed by the US, German and Russian leaders and included a 1.5 billion euro investment from Germany, is not the end of the story. The deal blithely gave the state control of a major industry - putting free markets themselves at stake.
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Elizabeth Zolotukhina: Recent events in Moldova have shown that Twitter can harness the power of disaffected individuals. The Moldovan approach to the protesters may have damaged its relations with other European states. For the Moldovan government, the key relationship remains with Russia.
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Eimear O'Casey: Three general elections have been held in Canada over the last four years. Although Canadian elections don’t get much media coverage, this election deserves our attention as an example of an ailing electoral system and the failures of vote-swapping. We need to draw some lessons from this display of first-past-the-post politics at its worst.
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From the Editorial Team: German and American policy pundits and exchange students celebrated Obama’s election and look forward to a new era in transatlantic relations, but they also recognize the limits of further US-European cooperation.
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Eckart von Klaeden: No matter whom the American voters elect, a radical change in US foreign policy towards its European allies is unlikely. Both McCain and Obama would generally continue to follow the multilateral course pursued by President Bush in his second term of office and before him by President Clinton.
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Interview with Charles Kupchan: Europe is the United States’ best partner. An Obama administration will work hard towards a renewal of transatlantic relations and pursue a more liberal internationalist agenda, but also ask Europe for greater assistance.
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From the Editorial Team: In his nomination speech, the Democratic presidential candidate reiterates his commitment to direct diplomacy with Iran and his hawkish position on Pakistan. What do you make of Barack Obama’s security policy positions?
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Dan Henninger: Despite the recent Clinton victory in Pennsylvania, Obama is likely to be the Democrats’ nominee, opines Wall Street Journal columnist Dan Henninger.
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Daniel Rackowski: As many Europeans ponder about the putative blessings of the post-Bush era, it is only opportune to ask how the at-times strained transatlantic relationship might evolve in the future.
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Alexandros Petersen: I conclude that Putin’s United Russia administration has framed Sunday’s polls as a referendum on his popularity, ensuring extra support for the party. For all of the president’s finagling, however, the only certainty is that his means of retaining power in Russia next year will confound the pundits’ predictions.
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Irem Köker: I identify the issues to watch for between Turkey and the United States. Although the majority party remains in power, new developments on the Kurds, the Armenian genocide question and Turkey’s energy deal with Iran could have lasting consequences.
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Global Must Read Articles
As this year’s American presidential election looms closer, Barack Obama’s foreign policy strategy has been simple: put off policy solutions until after the elections. ++ Obama has been willing to delay arms control negotiations with Russia and avoid military action against Syria and Iran. ++ Although buying time might serve his electoral needs, the number of civilian casualties in Syria has been
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Newly elected Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has the country’s biggest mandate in 30 years, but he will still need plenty of outside support to tackle Spain’s imposing economic issues. ++ He is hoping that Germany and the ECB will publically support his proposed reforms, but Angela Merkel has said she wants to see real action first. ++ Because the situation is so tenuous and Rajoy will not
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Sunday’s elections in Tunisia mark an important step for the Arab Spring. ++ Tunisia can be an important model for other nations; its strong private sector, respect for women’s rights, and lack of sectarian feuds make it a promising young democracy. ++ The US can help Tunisia take this step by helping monitor the elections for fairness, engaging with Tunisia’s moderate Islamic
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The reelection of the Swedish center-right government reveals an underlying dynamic affecting socialist parties in Europe. ++ Expectations ran high that the economic turmoil would strengthen the cause of the political left, “as a refuge from the excesses of economic neo-liberalism.” ++ However, parties on the left have been losing voters in all directions, most embarrassingly to the
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The latest Afghan elections saw the lowest turnout since 2001. ++ The rise of the Taliban followed by the worsening law and order situation are crucial issues for the future of the US-led NATO alliance in Afghanistan. ++ In addition, issues like managing corruption and revising US political goals will be decisive factors in the coming years. ++ There is a likelihood of a settlement which
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With the upcoming Afghan elections the security challenge has increased for the present state government. ++ With the growing insurgency and suicide bombings, a successful election outcome is unlikely. ++ The United Nations-backed Electoral Complaints Commission — the election’s ultimate arbiter — has been re-established. ++ However, with a history of corruption and rampant
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There is nothing worse than Japan’s new PM’s vision of economic nationalism and protectionism. ++ As an exporting country with a weak domestic economy, Tokyo relies on other nations maintaining free markets to ensure corporate profits for Toyota, Sony, Panasonic and the rest of Japan’s economic giants. ++ Although Japan’s 100 million voters have given Hatoyama four years to prove that he
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“The shame trials in Iran mask an insecure regime.” ++ Tehran’s actions must not be confused with an expression of Iran’s strength and confidence. ++ They are the leadership’s last opportunity to shift away the focus of the regime’s lack of legitimacy and authority by linking the domestic opposition to western interests. ++ But the Iranian people know their government and “they certainly
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Recent events in Iran and China have demonstrated the impressive power
of the internet. Iranians used web communication technologies like Twitter to
spread reports and images of their protests worldwide, despite attempts at
government censorship. In China a massive online resistance was formed against
new filter software to be placed in all computers, one which would protect
children form
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There are four potential scenarios that could come out of the Iranian crisis. ++ A revolution is unlikely: neither side favors a coup. ++ The regime must avoid a Tiananmen-like crackdown as that would ruin its legitimacy. ++ If the opposition remains strong, the status quo will be untenable and the election results must be re-evaluated. ++ Ayatollah Khamenai will be hoping for the “Zimbabwe
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Returned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has actually staged a creeping, silent coup, wresting control of Iran from the clerics and installing his military cohorts in their place. ++ Supreme Leader Khamenei shows strong support for the regime because he and the President - a former soldier - are dependent one each other to retain power. ++ Even the events after the election result seem
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Iranian religious leaders have suppressed efforts by any moderates to gain political power - culling all but four of the original 475 Presidential candidates for the elections. ++ President Ahmadinejad is favored to retain office, meaning social change in Iran is unlikely, even though “the majority of Iranians do not desire to live in a country that is regarded as an international pariah.” ++ But
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Lebanon’s Sunni-led pro-western alliance has won a surprising victory at the weekend’s parliamentary elections. ++ Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated head of government Rafik Hariri, is the front runner for the position of prime minister. ++ “This is an extraordinary day for democracy and for Lebanon.” ++ However, new conflicts could spring from the hard fought election campaign and
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Following disastrous results in the European and local elections on the weekend, Gordon Brown’s premiership is undoubtedly in its death throes. ++ “The danger for Labour is that, if he remains at the helm, the party itself could be imperilled.” ++ History shows that great parties can rise and fall and it would be dangerous to assume that “British politics is fixed for good in a
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Despite being the largest elections ever held, involving more than 700 million voters, India’s
new government will “consist mostly of politicians unfit to hold ministerial office.” ++ Most of India’s political parties are led by dynasties that prize loyalty over merit. ++ Ministries have become lucrative personal fiefdoms. ++ India’s democracy should be reformed into a presidential system of
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The Supreme Court of Pakistan declared ex-Prime Minister Sharif unfit to rule due to having fought a military coup in 1999. ++ He tried to prevent the return of Gen. Musharraf, who succeeded in the coup and instituted the court which has now declared Sharif unfit. ++ Sharif does not consider the court legitimate, unlike current president Zardari. ++ Unrest followed throughout Punjab, where
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Netanyahu aims to be Israel’s PM on the promise of more war: “we must smash Hamas power in Gaza.” ++ This attitude would complicate Obama’s policy of using diplomacy to address ME conflicts. ++ While US concerns are not ungrounded — during his last term in office, Netanyahu’s sheer stubbornness suffocated the Oslo accords— this time might be different. ++ He spoke of a
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The upcoming Iranian election is a critical one: the big question is whether the new president will seek to normalize relations with the West. ++ The former reformist President Khatami disappointed reform aspirations and the current president is criticized for his economic policy but his popularity is thriving. ++ America should avoid aggressive confrontation. ++ “Given that Ahmadinejad
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The US finds itself involved in most of the regional conflicts in the M-E. ++ When the US looks for a friendly face in the region it is confronted with hostile regional states (Iran), strategic liabilities (Afghanistan), and allies which speak of preemptive responses (Israel). ++ Amidst the havoc, Iraq emerges as a new strategic asset. ++ The success of the latest election in terms of turnout,
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Germany is getting ready for a year rich in elections at every level, concluding with the September legislative duel between Chancellor Merkel and FM Steinmeier. ++ A recent survey places Merkel in the lead; however, the financial crisis and its social repercussions make every prediction highly precarious. ++ The two candidates have therefore opted for officially starting the electoral campaign
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It is no wonder that Barack Obama has won the presidential elections as he understood the failures of the current administration. ++ To make up for these mistakes Obama must replace Bush’s economic bailout plan by implementing a more transparent and controlled strategy. ++ His administration must take the leading role in adressing issues of climate change and “come up with
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Americans have proven that they are more united than ever, by clearly electing Obama the next president of the US as well as by chosing a strong Democratic Congress. ++ With regard to the political legacy of George W. Bush, Obama is facing the toughest presidency of all times. ++ At this point in history he can “reshape the country’s assumptions, change the terms of debate and transform
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In addition to the development of the Iranian nuclear program and the economy, the choice of the next Iranian president will be determined by this year’s US presidential election. ++ Iranians are afraid of an American or Israeli military strike. ++ Knowing that McCain endorses military options, Iranians might tend to reelect Ahmadinejad in the case that McCain becomes the next president. ++
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Obama’s lead in national and global polls might tempt Osama bin Laden to make a public reappearance. ++ Bin Laden wants the US to continue “policies that create the appearance of a clash of civilizations.” ++ An Obama administration might threaten these intentions as Obama is expected to promote a more diplomatic political course. ++ Unlike 2004, when bin Laden threatened the
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This past weekend, three in ten Austrians voted for far-right parties; Bavaria’s CSU dipped beneath the 50 percent mark; and Lithuania’s populist parties, despite links with the Kremlin, polled strong. ++ This is what happens when mainstream parties build coalitions - voters are driven to the fringes. ++ The lesson for “Europe’s mainstream politicians is to compete, not to collaborate.” ++ Voters
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The new political agreement in Zimbabwe is a boon to President Robert Mugabe; he will retain the presidency, command the armed forces, and head the cabinet. ++ His opponent – and victor in the March elections – Morgan Tsvangirai, will take control of the disastrous economy. ++ At best, violence will wane and the starving will receive foreign aid. ++ The accord delineates no path
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Asif Ali Zardari is committed to a democratic, moderate and progressive Pakistan. ++ If elected president, he promises to return the constitutional balance the powers of the presidency that were altered by Zia ul-Haq and Musharraf, to reconstruct an independent judiciary, and to confront and c ontain terrorism. ++ Dictatorial forces are trying to destabilize the new democratic government, but
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In times of elections, it becomes obvious that both the right and the left promise the same thing which is economic growth. ++ However, the growth strategies and the ideas about the role of the state differ from each other. ++ The right-wing assumption that in the long run markets are “self-correcting” was proven wrong by recent developments in the US economy. ++ Therefore, the left has a more
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With Fidel Castro gone, the US has the chance to lift the embargo on Cuba, but should only do so in exchange for an independent and democratic Cuba. ++ The new ruler of Cuba should have a clear choice: hold free and fair elections, or be responsible for prolonging Cuba’s suffering. ++ History proves that neither tourism nor open trade are enough to democratize a country.
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Owing to Iran’s unique political culture combining elements of democracy and autocracy, Ahmadinejad’s hard-liners will face pragmatic conservatives on March 14. ++ Despite the pressure of the paramilitary, economic mismanagement could enable the president’s adversaries to gain ground. ++ Iran may step away from revolutionary radicalism but it would still be too soon “to write Ahmadinejad’s
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In recent years, the Democratic Party has tended to gravitate towards protectionism. ++ The denigration of freer trade is characteristic of Democratic candidates during the primaries. ++ Obama’s trade policy credentials however, suggest he is likely to be a friendlier president to multilateral free trade. ++ “Hope,” “change” and an international outlook are incompatible with protectionism.
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The struggling US economy has become a critical issue for America’s current and future leadership. Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and a former US secretary of labour, argues that presidential hopefuls need to recognize that “middle-class families have exhausted the coping mechanisms” which have kept them afloat since the 1970’s.
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Although elections for the Senate and the President were held in April, Nigeria’s (democratic) future remains uncertain, writes Dulue Mbachu of ISN Security Watch. According to the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), the first vote was accompanied by violence. The presidential election was calmer, but observers claim more fraudulent. Conversely, the government-appointed election commission
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