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Open Think Tank Articles
Aaron Thomas Walter: This paper considers the relationship between the United States, Israel and Iran. The primary finding of this study suggests that the actions of all three countries are anchored in the realist realm and will continue to be bound to the concepts of power and security.
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Memo 37: The United States and Europe should strive to de-escalate the growing tensions between Iran and the West. The transatlantic partners could do this by reframing their Middle East policy, promoting a more coherent nuclear proliferation stance, and allowing Europe to act as a bridge between Iran and the US.
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Keri Elise Majikes: The US can eliminate Iran’s incentives for developing nuclear technology without becoming militarily involved by creating an economic agreement that establishes Iran as a leader in renewable energy. Such an agreement would be less expensive than a military operation against Iran.
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Gerlinde Gerber: Following the catastrophe in Fukushima it is time to add a new dimension to the already controversial discussion about the Iranian nuclear program. This should serve as further push for the international community to strengthen its efforts to halt Iranian nuclear development.
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Editorial Team: A transatlantic pro & con debate has emerged in recent days over the question of whether Israel will resort to an air strike in order to keep Iran from building the bomb: In the US, there are fears that Israel might do so within the next twelve months, while Germans relegate this to the realm of the fantastic.
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Greg Randolph Lawson: Though heralded by many, the Obama’s new nuclear strategy is a misguided document that glosses over the relative stability nuclear weapons provide while reducing the credibility of deterrence when confronting nuclear proliferation.
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Baudouin Long: Iran’s nuclear ambition is not only a factor of concern for the Western powers but for its Arab neighbors as well. They have reacted to the Iranian threat by developing several strategies in compliance with the NPT. Nevertheless, they suffer from their disarray and should oppose a more united front to Iran.
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Editorial Team: The Heinrich Böll conference brought a cast of leading scholars to the debate in Berlin last week. Credibility, feasibility and confidence building were all key words and vital to the agenda. In addition to presenting your Atlantic Memo we were there to cover the event and bring you the finest international arguments.
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Greg Randolph Lawson: Nuclear proliferation is a growing phenomena that will not go away. Current discussion on addressing this threat through disarmament, even if viewed in the long-term, is futile. It is time to view the problem realistically and come up with new deterrence postures.
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Lyle Brecht: For more than fifty years the US has engaged a Deterrence Doctrine based on the strategic game of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) developed in the early 1950’s. It is apparent that this game strategy is unwinnable. Only a failure of leadership and lack of vision propels us to continue.
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Barry M. Blechman: The reduction of nuclear weapons is an unclear goal but entirely possible if the right structural framework is set in place. All that’s needed is the courage and will of political leaders to take the first steps. Inaction is too risky a course to take.
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Claudine Lamond: The different role of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Russia and the United States will be a major challenge to their bilateral disarmament efforts. Whereas US TNWs are mainly political in nature, Russian tactical nuclear weapons are more fundamental to its military doctrine.
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Subrata Ghoshroy: Global Zero is not feasible unless the security concerns of all nations are addressed. A world free of nuclear weapons depends on conventional disarmament, deeper cuts in the US and Russian arsenals and a ban to further produce nuclear weapons.
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Editorial Team: Terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons are growing threats for the EU. 30 international experts interviewed by Atlantic-Community.org nearly unanimously call for a much stronger EU commitments to the stabilization of Pakistan than promised at yesterday’s EU-Pakistan summit. The EU should complement US strategy with a long-term focus on state building.
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Strobe Talbott: President-elect Obama faces a host of short term crises. Long-term issues, though, such as climate change and nuclear proliferation must be at the top of his agenda. To tackle these challenges he has to recognize these priorities and act quickly together with allies—above all Europe.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: Iran’s nuclear strategy – one that allows it to buy time and improve its negotiating position – seems to be working. The US policy shift has come too late - Iran has already wrapped Germany, Russia and China around its little finger. The next US President will be faced with a tough choice.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Ralf Fuecks: The United States must offer Iran direct negotiations regarding its nuclear program. There needs to be a higher level of political and energy cooperation.
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Christoph Bertram: If European governments today distance themselves from America, they will both antagonize and further weaken the US. This will in turn undermine European foreign policy influence around the world.
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Tony Karon: The West should not be asking whether Tehran will build nuclear weapons in the future, but rather how the regime can be persuaded that it doesn’t need them.
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Margarita Mathiopoulos: The West cannot afford a globally weak or inept United States. The recent political changes in France, Japan, Britain and Germany present an opportunity to start fresh with a new US administration in 2008.
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Global Must Read Articles
Jonathan Granoff is currently the president of the Global Security Institute, an international organization dedicated to nuclear disarmament. As a lawyer and international advocate, he has been a vocal opponent of nuclear proliferation, serving on the advisory boards of the NGO Committee on Disarmament at the United Nations and the Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy as well as being the UN
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The eight countries that have not endorsed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, including the US, must move to adopt it. ++ The CTBT controls both new proliferation and upgrading capabilities of current nuclear arsenals, and supports eventual full disarmament. ++ Though not yet in force, all 182 signatories have ceased nuclear explosive tests, and nuclear testers now face universal
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China has replaced Russia at the UN Security Council as the one remaining obstacle to coercive sanctions on Iran’s military nuclear ambitions. ++ The possible Chinese veto finds a sound echo among the emerging countries. ++ Brazil reaffirms its support to Iran even in the darkest times of Iranian diplomacy while Turkey would very much enjoy a trouble-shooter status. ++ Positions from Nigeria, the
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Turkey’s motives are being questioned within the European Union over its growing connections with Iran. ++ Some argue that Ankara could further the Union’s policies concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities, while others contend that Western efforts will be frustrated by “lessening that country’s sense of isolation.” ++ The West risks ruining its own relationship with Turkey over short-term
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In the fight against nuclear proliferation, Syria should not be forgotten. ++ The IAEA’s failure to get Damascus to reveal the history of its secret nuclear reactor, questions its ability to act as an effective watchdog. ++ The IAEA’s stategy of coaxing violators is counterproductive and should be replaced with the practice of “meaningful benchmarks enforced with time certain sanctions that
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As Obama’s September deadline for Iran’s compliance on nuclear proliferation approaches, the IAEA releases a progress report this week. ++ “Tehran is not looking forward to this prospect, which will likely worsen internal fissures in the government made worse by the contested presidential elections in June.” ++ The US must therefore tread carefully using persuasion and not
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Germany and the EU are considering massive sanctions against Tehran unless it shows signs of compliance with international calls for nuclear disarmament. ++ These may include the cessation of oil exports which account for 30% of Iran’s consumption despite its own domestic production. ++ If President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remains unwilling to negotiate, it is likely that a new round of
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Bill Clinton’s trip to North Korea sets a dangerous precedent as the human factor overwhelms policy judgment. ++ The visit “enables Kim Jong Il to convey to North Koreans, and perhaps to other countries, that his country is being accepted into the international community”. ++ Although humanitarian aspect emphasized it is impossible to separate from political consequences. ++
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While Russia and the US agree on nonproliferation, global proliferation rises. ++ China and Israel modernize their arsenal; developments in North Korea and Iran endanger world stability. ++ Iran’s nuclear ambitions risk a domino effect with countries at the nuclear doorstep, such as Egypt, Turkey, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. ++ They must either invest in security ties with the US and missile defense
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“President Obama took office loudly promising to be the anti-George W. Bush of foreign policy,” but what he has received instead is “an education in the reality of global rogues, and how he responds has become a major test of his Presidency.” ++ The US is currently tracking a North Korean ship with suspected weapons towards Burma - will Mr Obama act to inspect the ship even though Pyongyang has
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South Korea must recognize that North Korea is not treating its nuclear power as a bargaining chip, but as a safety measure and the core of its survival strategy. ++ The world’s strategy must adapt without giving up the objective of a nuclear free peninsula. ++ This requires harsh UN sanctions with China’s
participation. ++ Despite North Korea’s obstinate position, South Korea should continue
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There are no realistic means to punish North Korea’s second nuclear test. ++ The test could see other powers in the region take up arms because they believe nothing can be done to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearize. ++ After the first test fizzled, a second was needed so that North Korea could get the US’s attention and prove that it had fixed its technical issues with the missile. ++ But
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If the US and Europe cannot peacefully convince Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons, Israel may consider using force - a move that could trigger a war worse than that in Iraq and make or break both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership and that of Barak Obama’s. ++ For the Israelis, Iran has become an unrivalled threat. ++ “Never before have the Israelis had to confront a rabidly
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North Korea’s closest ally, China, will have to lead any constructive diplomatic response to Kim Jong-Il’s decision to abandon long-running nuclear non-proliferation talks following international condemnation of Pyongyang’s firing of a test missile. ++ China is keen to make its mark on the world stage and “has both the clout and the responsibility to haul Pyongyang back into line.” ++ Getting
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In response to the North Korean rocket launch, President Obama committed to reducing the US supply of nuclear weapons. ++ This is not an effective strategy and gives other states an incentive to increase their nuclear capacity. ++ The only means of deterring rogue states from using nuclear weapons once they have acquired them is to threaten a larger response, and secondly, an effective program of
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It is crucial that Obama stays true to his promise of a fresh approach towards Iran, as the country wields significant influence over the wider Middle East region. ++ Persuading Iran to end its uranium enrichment program through dialog should begin as soon as possible. ++ Some important foundations for transparent democracy are in place, despite the country’s theocratic rule: the sizable body
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Obama has given early signals that his policy towards Iran will not mark a breakaway from Bush. ++ The “carrot-and-stick” approach is likely to create international consensus for military action should Iran refuse to back down. ++ This approach does not cut to the heart of the problem: Iran’s interest in nuclear weaponry is a reflection of its concerns for its survival. ++ By
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Yesterday, German entrepreneurs met to discuss how to intensify business with Iran. ++ Bank Melli’s connection to Tehran’s nuclear program has given the EU reason to freeze assets of Iran’s largest bank, but Germany refuses to go “beyond the relatively soft UN trade restrictions.” ++ In view of rising exports, Germany has become the largest European exporter to Iran.
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The financial crisis has dominated the US election campaign, marginalizing foreign policy. ++ But it is foreign relations, and especially ties with Iran, that will be at the top of the next president’s agenda. ++ This is not only about Iran’s nuclear capacity; stability of Iraq and Afghanistan, peace in Lebanon and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are all inconceivable without
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The nuclear deal with Korea appears to be back on track, which is the only thing President Bush has going for himself. ++ The deal seems predicated on Washington removing Pyongyang from the terror list in exchange for limited inspection access. ++ It is far from an ideal arrangement as “it includes vague and confidential terms that could cause problems.” ++ The obdurate approach of Cheney and his
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Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s hand.” ++ Russia undermined US efforts to impose new sanctions against Tehran during the Security Council’s meeting last month. ++ The fact
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Iran is at most four years away from its nuclear goals - diplomacy is needed. ++ Russia’s offer to provide Iran with enriched nuclear material and US proposals for direct talks in return for the abandonment of nuclear intentions have been turned down. ++ The disapproval of further offers might result in the total isolation of Iran. ++ Using military force is only credible if Iran “can
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The EU’s plan to reward Syria with an “Association Agreement” is worrisome for several reasons. ++ Damascus not only sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas, it also follows Iran’s approach to nuclear weapons in spite of its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ “European leaders should cease all further action toward an Association Agreement.” ++ If the EU ignores the lesson of inaction,
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In order to achieve at least one of its foreign policy goals, the Bush administration insisted on the international approval of the nuclear deal with India. ++ The world can sell nuclear fuel to India; however, the action was ill-conceived. ++ The US did not get India’s word that it will stop producing bomb-making material. ++ Moreover, the US effort to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear
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Because India has not signed the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), some oppose the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and their plan to waive the ban on its nuclear commerce. ++ But India has committed itself to fully cooperate with the IAEA and, if it should join the global efforts on limiting greenhouse gas emissions, it needs nuclear energy. ++ Therefore, in order to further promote
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A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, whether by the US or Israel, is a disastrous idea. ++ If Iran is attacked oil prices may rise to $200 a barrel which would be a hard hit for the global economy. ++ Iranian nuclear facilities are too widely dispersed to be fully destroyed by warplanes, which means an attack would only delay the progress towards getting a bomb; it is also likely to harden
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Two of the EU’s key assumptions towards Russia have been proven wrong: firstly, Russia obviously does not share the Western values and secondly, Russia does not oppose Iran going nuclear. ++ Moscow can assume that a nuclear Iran will hurt Western interests more than Russian and will shape balance of power favorably for Russia. ++ Yet, there is still a chance for the EU to pressure Iran through
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Now that the Bush administration has reneged on its hard line against negotiations, Iran does not take US ultimatums seriously. ++ Where progressives see flexibility, Iranian officials see weakness.++ As long as there are no sanctions, Iran could import all the technology they need throughout negotiations. ++ Diplomacy with an insincere opponent does more harm than good. ++ With its diplomatic
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US government has a tendency to “squash mosquitoes with TNT,” which shows in its treatment of Iran. ++ There’s no need to fear Iran: Ahamadinejad is only a figurehead putting on a show of might to gain respect in the Muslim world; the real power is in the hands of religious leaders, many of whom are sympathetic to the West. ++ The fact that Americans don’t see that reveals they
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The permanent members of the UN security council condemn Iran, but they are just as guilty of nuclear proliferation. ++ The distinction between their supposedly “responsible” ownership of nuclear weapons and that of Iran, North Korea or Pakistan is entirely arbitrary: US, Russia, UK, and France refuse to disarm and have all declared they would be prepared to use their nuclear arsenal against a
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Conventional wisdom which treated President Medvedev as a mere continuation of Putin is oversimplified. ++ We are witnessing one of the most promising periods in Russian history. ++ The new Russian government with two centers of power may mark the beginning of an evolution toward a form of checks and balances. ++ Geopolitical realities with respect to nuclear weapons and Iran require Russian-US
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July 1 marked the 40th anniversary of the NPT which provided an opportunity to reexamine its current and future role. ++ Nuclear nonproliferation movement is at a crossroads. ++ It is crucial that the next US president calls for deep cuts in nuclear weapons around the world at the start of his administration in January 2009. ++ He should also appoint a nonproliferation “czar” to help him shape
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Six-party framework is our best option to achieve the strategic goal of Korea’s denuclearization. ++ Now North Korea is already disabling its plutonium production facility at Yongbyon under the monitoring of US inspectors. ++ The US has no permanent enemies. ++ After North Korea yields its nuclear production records, US president will remove it from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
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Britain’s foreign secretary argues that if the new “dual-track approach” regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations fails, it is the Iranian’s own fault. ++ Convinced that the region and the world need a cooperative, sanction-free Iran, the West is offering generous incentives, including assistance for a civilian-based nuclear energy program, in return for Iran’s
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Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the Kremlin should be impossible to refuse, and must compensate for what Russia currently gains by dealing with Iran. ++ Russia will join the boycott if the
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India’s ascension as a nuclear weapon state ten years ago was a mistake. ++ Fallacious confidence in the doctrine of deterrence has had the opposite effect, encouraging reckless behavior in Kashmir and strengthening Pakistan’s military leadership, making South Asia more volatile. ++ The ensuing arms race with Pakistan and China has been funded at the expense of the social-sector, and led to a
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The US should continue its current path in North Korean nuclear negotiations, rather than exiting or stalling talks. ++ It should prioritize verification of North Korea’s plutonium production records, and push towards dismantlement of the Yongbyong reactor. ++ The US can then concurrently work towards confirming the extent of North Korean uranium enrichment, as well as the extent of its nuclear
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Amid escalating rhetoric about Iranian military involvement in Iraq, a new package of incentives by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany is unlikely to persuade Iran to suspend nuclear enrichment. ++ As long as open-ended suspension remains the prerequisite for the continuation of talks, Iran will continue its defiance. ++ “The insistence on this precondition
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Concerning the Iranian enrichment program, international attention shouldn’t exclusively be on the receiving country. ++ Indian and European companies deliver nuclear supplies to Iran. ++ Tightening up control over European nuclear industries and doing so transparently, while enlisting the cooperation of Russia and China in this effort is necessary to stop Iranian nuclear weapon
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Obama and Clinton may agree on many issues, but they champion two very different approaches towards US foreign policy in the Middle East. ++ Obama opposes the notion of a “clash of civilizations” and supports engaging moderates and democrats in the Muslim world. ++ Clinton would follow a path similar to that of the Bush administration and focus on defending US allies and deterring Iran.
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Bush’s
chief North Korea negotiator recently reached a deal with Pyongyang based on trust and not
verification ++ This hasty compromise before the end of the presidential term, could set a precedent for other nations determined to develop a nuclear program ++ Seoul and Tokyo are left bewildered by this sudden new policy of “appeasement.” ++ Public awareness will prove pivotal.
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The goal of global nuclear disarmament must not be abandoned. ++ Recent positive developments at the Oslo conference suggest that all nations should continue to work together toward this goal. ++ The disarmament appeal needs to be more universal. ++ Hopefully, the calls for more diplomatic-scientific cooperation, firm commitment from leaders, and expanded education will be remembered.
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The US’s current “insistence on zero enrichment of uranium” in Iran is unreasonable. ++ The US needs to encourage Iran to abandon its national enrichment activities in favor of a multilateral program based in Iran. ++ While there would be many risks, such a program would deter Iranian proliferation, help Iran further its nuclear power agenda, and ensure greater transparency regarding its nuclear
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In the wake of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, the EU should continue with their diplomatic approach, despite US calls for more unilateral sanctions, says Volker Perthes of the SWP. Such an approach should be based on a broad international consensus, clearly communicating that the issue is proliferation and not the nature of the Iranian regime, and come with an earnest offer of
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The results of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program reveal nothing distinctly different from previous findings. Nevertheless, their ensuing debate could prove critical to long-term transatlantic strategy on Iran says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.
The strategic implications of the new NIE reveal that Iran may opt for an ambiguous nuclear
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Jeffrey Lewis of the New America Foundation takes a look behind the Bush administration’s boasting of having cut the size of the nation’s nuclear stockpile, while attempting to modernize the US arsenal.
Thus, despite recent claims, there are still up to 6,000 nuclear weapons, about a third of which are on Cold War alert levels. Instead of keeping nuclear forces to a minimum level, capabilities
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The cloud of secrecy surrounding India’s long-standing secret nuclear submarine program is finally clearing up, reports Guardian columnist Maseeh Rahman from Delhi. India has been racing to create alternative and more lethal striking capabilities since it began amassing nuclear weapons in 1998, with an eye towards weapons that cannot be detected by enemies. Currently, a miniature light
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Is nuclear power the cheap energy and climate change holy grail? In their latest Oxford Research Group Briefing Paper, Frank Barnaby and James Kemp say no. Apart from the security problems a nuclear renaissance would bring, the infrastructure required would be beyond the industry’s capacity. Just increasing the share of energy derived from nuclear power to one-third (twice its current
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Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, analyzes Israeli policy options towards Iran and potential consequences.
Though Israel would prefer that issues with Tehran be resolved diplomatically through the international community, it perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and cannot rule out the military option.
However, Menkelberg argues that military
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America has a “profound misunderstanding of the nature of power in world politics,” says Harvard professor Joseph S. Nye. Power is distributed at three levels: unipolar military relations among states, multipolar economic relations, and transnational issues outside the control of governments. The most urgent challenges faced by the US today, such as the Iraq war, global climate change, pandemics,
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